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Found 2 Skills
Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting framework applied to a business decision, investment thesis, or strategic question. Spawns a team of specialist agents — Calibrator, Decomposer, Updater, Devil's Advocate, Scorekeeper — who each apply a different piece of the superforecasting methodology. The lead synthesizes into a calibrated probability estimate with Brier-scoreable predictions, explicit base rates, and an accountability structure for keeping score over time. Use when the user says "tetlock this", "what's the probability", "how confident should I be", "forecast this", "calibrate this", proposes a business thesis and wants probabilistic stress-testing, or wants to apply superforecasting to a decision. Works standalone or after /munger.
Use to convert probabilities into decisions (bet/pass/hedge) and optimize scoring. Invoke when need to calculate edge, size bets optimally (Kelly Criterion), extremize aggregated forecasts, or improve Brier scores. Use when user mentions betting strategy, Kelly, edge calculation, Brier score, extremizing, or translating belief into action.