risk-management
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ChineseRisk Management
风险管理
Last updated: 2026-01-17 20:31 UTC Active patterns: 40 Total samples: 13385 Confidence threshold: 60%
最后更新时间：2026-01-17 20:31 UTC 有效模式数量：40 总样本数：13385 置信度阈值：60%
Core Principles
核心原则
These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:
| Rule | Success Rate | Samples | Confidence | Seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count inversely correlates with pe... | 95% | 861 | 55% | 1x |
| Trade frequency should adapt to market r... | 95% | 950 | 95% | 1x |
| Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... | 92% | 157 | 65% | 1x |
| Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... | 92% | 164 | 70% | 1x |
| Trade frequency should adapt to market r... | 92% | 895 | 95% | 1x |
| Trade frequency should adapt to market r... | 92% | 855 | 95% | 1x |
| Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... | 92% | 328 | 79% | 2x |
| Optimal trade frequency in trending bull... | 90% | 543 | 75% | 1x |
| Optimal trade frequency in trending bull... | 88% | 1088 | 79% | 2x |
| Close losing positions proactively with ... | 88% | 184 | 75% | 1x |
| Close short positions immediately when m... | 88% | 675 | 95% | 1x |
| Close losing positions proactively with ... | 88% | 368 | 79% | 2x |
| High confidence (>0.8) should require co... | 85% | 20 | 50% | 1x |
| Close losing positions proactively with ... | 85% | 182 | 65% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... | 85% | 321 | 70% | 1x |
| Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, E... | 85% | 494 | 79% | 2x |
| Close losing positions proactively with ... | 85% | 100 | 95% | 1x |
| Close losing positions proactively with ... | 85% | 368 | 95% | 1x |
| Optimal trade frequency in trending mark... | 82% | 535 | 65% | 1x |
| Diversify across multiple assets (BTC, E... | 82% | 348 | 70% | 1x |
| Close positions near breakeven to free m... | 82% | 390 | 79% | 2x |
| Explicit validation step before trade ex... | 80% | 100 | 95% | 1x |
| Close positions near breakeven to free m... | 80% | 144 | 95% | 1x |
| Diversify across assets rather than conc... | 78% | 248 | 65% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... | 78% | 125 | 75% | 1x |
| Trade frequency should adapt to market r... | 78% | 507 | 95% | 1x |
| Validate risk per trade explicitly befor... | 75% | 160 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... | 74% | 285 | 99% | 2x |
| Close positions near breakeven to free m... | 73% | 278 | 99% | 2x |
| High confidence (>0.8) should require co... | 70% | 20 | 40% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 rewa... | 65% | 139 | 45% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 25% equity limit per ... | 65% | 121 | 65% | 1x |
| Explicit validation step ('Validate_trad... | 65% | 176 | 95% | 1x |
| Close losing positions proactively with ... | 60% | 189 | 95% | 1x |
| Explicit validation step before trade ex... | 45% | 182 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 35% | 191 | 95% | 1x |
| 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio fai... | 35% | 173 | 95% | 1x |
| Explicit validation step ('Validate_trad... | 35% | 195 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... | 30% | 171 | 95% | 1x |
| Position sizing at 2% risk with 2:1 rewa... | 15% | 155 | 55% | 1x |
以下规则通过分析盈利与亏损交易总结得出：
| 规则 | 成功率 | 样本数 | 置信度 | 出现次数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 震荡市场中交易次数与收益成负相关 | 95% | 861 | 55% | 1x |
| 交易频率应适配市场周期 | 95% | 950 | 95% | 1x |
| 入场前明确验证单笔交易风险 | 92% | 157 | 65% | 1x |
| 入场前明确验证单笔交易风险 | 92% | 164 | 70% | 1x |
| 交易频率应适配市场周期 | 92% | 895 | 95% | 1x |
| 交易频率应适配市场周期 | 92% | 855 | 95% | 1x |
| 入场前明确验证单笔交易风险 | 92% | 328 | 79% | 2x |
| 趋势牛市中的最优交易频率 | 90% | 543 | 75% | 1x |
| 趋势牛市中的最优交易频率 | 88% | 1088 | 79% | 2x |
| 主动平仓亏损仓位 | 88% | 184 | 75% | 1x |
| 市场出现特定信号时立即平仓空头仓位 | 88% | 675 | 95% | 1x |
| 主动平仓亏损仓位 | 88% | 368 | 79% | 2x |
| 高置信度(>0.8)需结合其他信号 | 85% | 20 | 50% | 1x |
| 主动平仓亏损仓位 | 85% | 182 | 65% | 1x |
| 单资产仓位上限为权益的25% | 85% | 321 | 70% | 1x |
| 跨多资产分散投资(BTC、ETH...) | 85% | 494 | 79% | 2x |
| 主动平仓亏损仓位 | 85% | 100 | 95% | 1x |
| 主动平仓亏损仓位 | 85% | 368 | 95% | 1x |
| 趋势市场中的最优交易频率 | 82% | 535 | 65% | 1x |
| 跨多资产分散投资(BTC、ETH...) | 82% | 348 | 70% | 1x |
| 平仓接近盈亏平衡点的仓位以释放资金 | 82% | 390 | 79% | 2x |
| 交易执行前的明确验证步骤 | 80% | 100 | 95% | 1x |
| 平仓接近盈亏平衡点的仓位以释放资金 | 80% | 144 | 95% | 1x |
| 分散资产投资而非集中持仓 | 78% | 248 | 65% | 1x |
| 单资产仓位上限为权益的25% | 78% | 125 | 75% | 1x |
| 交易频率应适配市场周期 | 78% | 507 | 95% | 1x |
| 入场前明确验证单笔交易风险 | 75% | 160 | 95% | 1x |
| 单资产仓位上限为权益的25% | 74% | 285 | 99% | 2x |
| 平仓接近盈亏平衡点的仓位以释放资金 | 73% | 278 | 99% | 2x |
| 高置信度(>0.8)需结合其他信号 | 70% | 20 | 40% | 1x |
| 2%风险仓位搭配2:1收益比 | 65% | 139 | 45% | 1x |
| 单资产仓位上限为权益的25% | 65% | 121 | 65% | 1x |
| 明确验证步骤('Validate_trad... | 65% | 176 | 95% | 1x |
| 主动平仓亏损仓位 | 60% | 189 | 95% | 1x |
| 交易执行前的明确验证步骤 | 45% | 182 | 95% | 1x |
| 2%权益风险搭配2:1收益比 | 35% | 191 | 95% | 1x |
| 2%权益风险搭配2:1收益比失效 | 35% | 173 | 95% | 1x |
| 明确验证步骤('Validate_trad... | 35% | 195 | 95% | 1x |
| 2%权益风险搭配2:1收益比 | 30% | 171 | 95% | 1x |
| 2%风险仓位搭配2:1收益比 | 15% | 155 | 55% | 1x |
Top Risk Rules
顶级风险管理规则
Trade count inversely correlates with performance in flat markets: 3-6 trades = ~$0 PnL, 70-180 trades = -$55 to -$141, 150-225 trades = -$325 to -$581
震荡市场中交易次数与收益成负相关：3-6笔交易≈0美元PnL，70-180笔交易亏损55-141美元，150-225笔交易亏损325-581美元
- Success rate: 95%
- Based on 861 observations
- Confidence: 55% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-13
- 成功率：95%
- 基于861次观测
- 置信度：55%（出现1次）
- 首次发现时间：2026-01-13
Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: mixed/choppy markets require 0-10 trades/24h maximum. 201 trades = -$360.24, 2 trades = -$0.29, 0 trades = $0.00.
交易频率应适配市场周期：震荡/混合型市场单日交易上限为0-10笔。201笔交易亏损360.24美元，2笔交易亏损0.29美元，0笔交易收益0.00美元。
- Success rate: 95%
- Based on 950 observations
- Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-17
- 成功率：95%
- 基于950次观测
- 置信度：95%（出现1次）
- 首次发现时间：2026-01-17
Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk per trade within limits' and 'portfolio risk is within limits' - this validation step correlates with +$1349 PnL.
入场前明确验证单笔交易风险。skill_aware_oss的决策逻辑包含“单笔交易风险在限额内”和“投资组合风险在限额内”——该验证步骤对应1349美元的正PnL。
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 157 observations
- Confidence: 65% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-14
- 成功率：92%
- 基于157次观测
- 置信度：65%（出现1次）
- 首次发现时间：2026-01-14
Validate risk per trade explicitly before entry with 2% equity risk and 2:1 reward ratio. skill_aware_oss reasoning includes 'risk/reward is 2:1 with 2% equity risk' and 'trade validation passed', achieving best performance (+$1379.66).
入场前以2%权益风险搭配2:1收益比明确验证单笔交易风险。skill_aware_oss的决策逻辑包含“风险收益比为2:1且权益风险为2%”和“交易验证通过”，实现最佳收益(+1379.66美元)。
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 164 observations
- Confidence: 70% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-14
- 成功率：92%
- 基于164次观测
- 置信度：70%（出现1次）
- 首次发现时间：2026-01-14
Trade frequency should adapt to market regime: moderate bull markets require 0-30 trades/24h maximum. Above 100 trades correlates with losses (-$50 to -$264).
交易频率应适配市场周期：温和牛市单日交易上限为0-30笔。超过100笔交易对应亏损(50-264美元)。
- Success rate: 92%
- Based on 895 observations
- Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)
- First identified: 2026-01-17
- 成功率：92%
- 基于895次观测
- 置信度：95%（出现1次）
- 首次发现时间：2026-01-17
General Guidelines
通用准则
- Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade
- Use stop-losses on every position
- Reduce position size in high volatility regimes
- Don't add to losing positions
- 单笔交易风险绝不超过权益的2%
- 所有仓位均设置止损
- 高波动周期下降低仓位规模
- 不要为亏损仓位加仓
Confidence Guide
置信度指南
| Confidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 90%+ | High confidence - strong historical support |
| 70-90% | Moderate confidence - use with other signals |
| 60-70% | Low confidence - consider as one input |
| <60% | Experimental - needs more data |
This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.
| 置信度 | 解读 |
|---|---|
| 90%+ | 高置信度 - 具备坚实历史数据支撑 |
| 70-90% | 中等置信度 - 需结合其他信号使用 |
| 60-70% | 低置信度 - 仅作为参考输入之一 |
| <60% | 实验性规则 - 需要更多数据验证 |
本技能由Observer Agent自动生成并更新。