melech-market-validation

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Market Validation

市场验证

Start with the opportunity as the user actually has it. If the premise is open, help shape it without manufacturing certainty. Once it is testable, validate it from plausibility to the strongest real-world evidence the user can obtain. Do not mistake research, enthusiasm, interviews, or one pilot for a validated market.

The skill has two connected modes:

Shape — clarify and reframe an open opportunity until the next useful product or market hypothesis is visible. A verdict is optional.
Validate — test one provisional hypothesis against customer, behavioral, and commercial evidence until an explicit market decision is possible.

When the user asks for full validation, the work is complete only when it has:

made the hypothesis falsifiable
mapped evidence for and against every decision-carrying claim
closed the most important evidence gap with primary or behavioral evidence when access permits
separated what is known from what remains merely plausible
produced an explicit Advance / Reshape / Hold / Stop decision

Market validation may span multiple sessions because customers and experiments exist outside the chat. Preserve one living validation brief so the work can resume without restarting.

从用户实际面临的机会入手。若前提尚未明确，可协助梳理但无需强行给出定论。一旦机会具备可测试性，便从合理性验证逐步推进，直至获取用户能拿到的最有力真实证据。切勿将调研、热情、访谈或单一试点等同于已验证的市场。

本技能包含两个关联模式：

Shape（梳理） — 明确并重构开放式机会，直到形成下一个可行的产品或市场假设。无需给出定论。
Validate（验证） — 针对客户、行为及商业证据测试临时假设，直到能够做出明确的市场决策。

当用户要求完整验证时，需满足以下条件才算完成工作：

使假设具备可证伪性
针对每个影响决策的主张，梳理支持与反对的证据
在可获取信息的前提下，通过一手或行为证据填补最重要的证据缺口
区分已知事实与仅具合理性的推测
给出明确的 Advance（推进）/ Reshape（重构）/ Hold（暂缓）/ Stop（终止） 决策

市场验证可能需要多轮会话，因为客户与实验场景存在于对话之外。需保留一份动态的验证简报，以便后续无需从头开始即可继续推进工作。

Boundary first

先明确边界

Choose this skill based on the state of the user's thinking:

User has	Use
A concrete requested solution that may not serve the real need	Distill the real need first — not this skill
An open product or business opportunity and wants to discover a testable market premise	Shape it here, then validate when useful
A specific customer/problem/value hypothesis and wants to know whether reality supports it	Start at the validation contract
A market-backed direction and needs a shared build concept	Move on to shaping a buildable concept — not this skill

Do not force an open idea into a validation contract before its important pieces are legible. Conversely, do not keep ideating after one hypothesis has stabilized when customer or commercial evidence now carries the decision.

根据用户的思考阶段选择使用本技能：

用户现状	适用场景
已有具体的解决方案需求，但该方案可能无法满足真实需求	先提炼真实需求——不适用本技能
拥有开放式产品或商业机会，希望梳理出可测试的市场前提	在此梳理，待具备可行性后再进行验证
已有明确的客户/问题/价值假设，希望了解现实是否支持该假设	从验证协议开始
已有市场认可的方向，需要明确可落地的构建方案	转向梳理可落地的方案——不适用本技能

在核心要素清晰之前，切勿强行将开放式想法纳入验证协议。反之，当某一假设已稳定，且客户或商业证据可影响决策时，不应继续停留在构思阶段。

Validation model

验证模型

Validation is not one binary badge. Track the evidence state of each claim:

Unsupported — asserted, with no meaningful evidence
Plausible — supported by credible secondary or first-party signals
Behavior-supported — target customers repeatedly demonstrate the problem, workaround, switching, or relevant action
Commitment-supported — the intended buyer gives scarce commitment such as money, signed pilot, procurement effort, data access, or meaningful time

The claims that usually carry a market decision are:

Customer and situation — a reachable segment encounters a specific triggering situation.
Problem — the situation creates frequent, severe, or costly consequences.
Existing demand — people already spend money, time, risk, or political capital to make progress.
Buyer and budget — an identifiable decision-maker owns the outcome and can fund change.
Offer fit — the proposed value and delivery shape beat the current alternative enough to motivate action.
Reachability — there is a credible path to repeatedly find and engage the segment.

Not every claim needs commitment-level evidence before proceeding. The riskiest claim that would reverse the decision does.

验证并非单一的二元结果。需追踪每个主张的证据状态：

无支撑 — 仅提出主张，无有意义的证据
合理 — 有可信的二手或一手信号支撑
行为支撑 — 目标客户反复表现出相关问题、 workaround（权宜方案）、转换行为或其他相关动作
承诺支撑 — 潜在买家做出稀缺性承诺，如付费、签署试点协议、采购投入、数据授权或投入大量时间

通常影响市场决策的主张包括：

客户与场景 — 可触达的用户群体遇到特定触发场景
问题 — 该场景会引发频繁、严重或高成本的后果
现有需求 — 用户已在投入资金、时间、风险或政治资本以寻求改善
买家与预算 — 存在可识别的决策者，其对结果负责且有能力为改变提供资金
适配性 — 提议的价值与交付形式相比当前替代方案具备足够优势，可促使用户采取行动
可触达性 — 存在可靠路径，可反复找到并触达目标用户群体

并非所有主张都需要达到承诺级别的证据才能推进。只需针对最具风险、可能逆转决策的主张获取足够证据即可。

End-to-end workflow

端到端工作流程

0. Shape an open premise

0. 梳理开放式前提

Use this step when the user has an opportunity, aspiration, market question, or vague product idea rather than a testable hypothesis. Treat the first idea as a movable premise, not a contract.

Maintain a compact working map:

Aim — the outcome the user wants
Relationship — current-product opportunity, standalone product, adjacent product, or deliberately undecided
Premise — current customer, situation, problem, product shape, and value mechanism, including blanks
Evidence and tensions — observed facts, user claims, inference, contradictions, and consequential unknowns
Next decision — the choice that most changes what should happen next

Work on only the uncertainty carrying that decision. Depending on the context:

ask one to three questions only the user can answer
inspect relevant product, repository, or first-party evidence
research users, alternatives, competitors, market conditions, or feasibility proportionately
compare one to three materially different premise shapes

Existing code proves capability, not need. Public complaints and feature requests can reveal mechanisms and language, but not prevalence or willingness to pay.

Give value in every turn: a synthesis, reframe, meaningful option, or next decision—not an intake questionnaire. When the premise changes:

state the new shape in one sentence
preserve what remains valid
name what became invalid or uncertain
continue from the updated map without restarting

If the user only wants orientation, stop with the strongest current shape, supporting evidence, remaining tension, and next useful move. Do not manufacture a validation verdict. If customer, costly situation, current alternative, buyer, and proposed value are legible enough to test, move into the validation contract.

When the user requests a durable opportunity map, positioning, MVP boundary, pitch narrative, or decision memo, read the relevant section of

references/artifacts.md

and preserve the active evidence state.

当用户拥有机会、愿景、市场疑问或模糊的产品想法，而非可测试的假设时，使用此步骤。将初始想法视为可调整的前提，而非固定协议。

维护一份简洁的工作图谱：

目标 — 用户期望达成的结果
关联类型 — 当前产品衍生机会、独立产品、相邻产品或暂未明确
前提 — 当前的客户、场景、问题、产品形态及价值机制，包括未明确的部分
证据与矛盾点 — 观察到的事实、用户主张、推论、矛盾及关键未知项
下一步决策 — 最能影响后续行动的选择

仅针对影响该决策的不确定性展开工作。根据具体情况：

提出1-3个只有用户能回答的问题
查看相关产品、知识库或一手证据
适度调研用户、替代方案、竞争对手、市场环境或可行性
对比1-3个差异显著的前提形态

现有代码仅证明能力，而非需求。公开投诉与功能请求可揭示机制与用户语言，但无法证明问题的普遍性或付费意愿。

每次交互都要提供价值：如总结、重构、有意义的选项或下一步决策——而非仅做信息收集。当前提发生变化时：

用一句话表述新的前提形态
保留仍有效的内容
指出失效或变得不确定的部分
基于更新后的图谱继续推进，无需从头开始

若用户仅需要方向指引，则以当前最清晰的前提形态、支撑证据、剩余矛盾点及下一步可行动作收尾，无需强行给出验证结论。当客户、高成本场景、当前替代方案、买家及提议价值足够清晰可测试时，进入验证协议阶段。

当用户需要持久的机会图谱、定位、MVP边界、推介话术或决策备忘录时，阅读

references/artifacts.md

中的相关章节，并保留当前的证据状态。

1. Lock the validation contract

1. 锁定验证协议

Turn what the user gave you into one provisional sentence:

[Customer] in [situation] struggles with [costly problem], currently uses [alternative], and [buyer] will choose/pay for [proposed value] because [reason to switch].

Also capture:

geography or market boundary
the decision this validation must inform
time, money, access, and research constraints
what evidence would cause Advance, Reshape, Hold, or Stop

Propose the contract from available context. Ask only about a blank that is both unguessable and decision-changing. Let the user correct it once; do not run a generic startup intake.

If the proposed solution is still very fluid, lock the customer/problem side and label the offer claim as open rather than inventing false precision.

将用户提供的信息转化为一句临时假设：

[客户群体] 在[场景]中面临[高成本问题]，目前使用[替代方案]，[买家]会选择/付费购买[提议价值]，原因是[转换理由]。

同时记录：

地域或市场边界
本次验证需要支撑的决策
时间、资金、信息获取及调研限制
何种证据会触发 Advance（推进）/ Reshape（重构）/ Hold（暂缓）/ Stop（终止） 决策

基于现有上下文提出协议。仅询问那些既无法猜测又会影响决策的空白信息。允许用户修正一次，无需进行通用的初创信息收集。

若提议的解决方案仍非常灵活，则锁定客户/问题侧内容，将方案主张标记为开放式，而非强行制造虚假的精准性。

2. Build the claim and evidence map

2. 构建主张与证据图谱

For each decision-carrying claim, record:

current evidence
strongest counter-explanation
evidence state
risk if false
cheapest method that could discriminate between explanations
threshold that changes the decision

Prioritize by decision impact × uncertainty, not by whichever evidence is easiest to collect.

Read

references/artifacts.md

before creating or updating the living validation brief.

针对每个影响决策的主张，记录：

当前证据
最有力的反向解释
证据状态
若主张为假的风险
可区分不同解释的最低成本方法
会改变决策的阈值

按 决策影响×不确定性 排序优先级，而非按证据收集的难易程度。

在创建或更新动态验证简报前，阅读

references/artifacts.md

。

3. Mine first-party evidence

3. 挖掘一手证据

Before searching the public web, inspect evidence the user already owns when it exists:

support conversations and feature requests
product usage, retention, cancellation, and workflow data
sales calls, objections, win/loss notes, and CRM fields
interview transcripts, surveys, emails, community conversations
paid pilots, proposals, procurement steps, and previous experiments

Separate capability from demand. Existing code proves something can be built; feature requests prove someone asked; neither proves repeated pain or purchase intent.

Respect privacy and authorization. Ask for aggregated or redacted evidence when raw customer data is unnecessary.

在搜索公开网络之前，先查看用户已有的证据（若存在）：

客服对话与功能请求
产品使用、留存、取消及工作流数据
销售通话、异议、赢单/丢单记录及CRM字段
访谈记录、调研、邮件、社区对话
付费试点、提案、采购流程及过往实验

区分能力与需求。现有代码证明某功能可被开发；功能请求证明有人提出需求；但两者均无法证明用户存在持续痛点或购买意愿。

尊重隐私与授权。当无需原始客户数据时，可要求提供汇总或脱敏后的证据。

4. Run the secondary evidence audit

4. 开展二手证据审核

Research both for and against the contract:

recurring pain and consequences
workarounds and existing spend
direct competitors, substitutes, services, internal builds, and non-consumption
buyers, budgets, procurement language, and switching barriers
market timing, regulation, concentration, and reachable communities
failed products or attempts that expose structural risk

Read

references/research.md

and use only methods relevant to the active claims. For parallel evidence collection, read

references/orchestration.md

Keep an evidence log with canonical source, date, claim covered, evidence type, snippet or datapoint, confidence, and contradiction. Deduplicate by origin before counting corroboration.

Stop at saturation or a declared research cap—not after the first plausible answer.

针对协议内容进行正反两方面的调研：

持续存在的痛点及后果
权宜方案及现有投入
直接竞争对手、替代产品、服务、内部构建方案及非消费行为
买家、预算、采购术语及转换壁垒
市场时机、监管、集中度及可触达的社群
失败的产品或尝试，以揭示结构性风险

阅读

references/research.md

，仅使用与当前主张相关的方法。如需并行收集证据，阅读

references/orchestration.md

。

保留证据日志，记录标准来源、日期、覆盖的主张、证据类型、片段或数据点、可信度及矛盾点。在统计佐证前，按来源去重。

达到信息饱和或调研上限时停止，而非找到第一个合理答案就结束。

5. Make the desk-research call

5. 桌面调研结论

Synthesize what secondary and first-party evidence can establish. Use precise language:

research-supported or plausible, never “validated,” when evidence is indirect
insufficient evidence when the decisive claim remains open
confidence per claim, not one decorative confidence score

At this point, recommend Advance to field validation, Reshape the hypothesis, Hold, or Stop. Do not produce the final market-validation verdict yet unless strong primary and behavioral evidence already exists.

总结二手与一手证据可证明的内容，使用精准表述：

当证据为间接时，使用“调研支撑”或“合理”，而非“已验证”
当决定性主张仍不明确时，使用“证据不足”
针对每个主张给出可信度，而非单一的装饰性可信度评分

在此阶段，建议 Advance to field validation（推进至实地验证）、Reshape the hypothesis（重构假设）、Hold（暂缓） 或 Stop（终止）。除非已有强有力的一手及行为证据，否则暂不给出最终的市场验证结论。

6. Close mechanism gaps with primary discovery

6. 通过一手调研填补机制缺口

Use interviews or workflow observation to understand:

the last real incident, trigger, sequence, and consequence
current alternatives and why they remain tolerated
who notices, owns, approves, pays, and can block change
urgency, switching conditions, and adoption risk
language customers naturally use

Read

references/fieldwork.md

and prepare:

participant criteria and exclusions
recruiting routes
a behavior-first interview or observation guide
an evidence-capture format
sample and stop rationale

The user may conduct sessions and return with notes, or connected tools may provide authorized evidence. Do not fabricate interviews or silently replace them with public posts.

Synthesize patterns and disconfirming cases. Interviews validate mechanisms and context; stated enthusiasm does not validate willingness to pay.

通过访谈或工作流观察来了解：

最近发生的真实事件、触发因素、流程及后果
当前替代方案及用户容忍它们的原因
谁关注、负责、批准、付费及能阻止改变
紧迫性、转换条件及采用风险
用户自然使用的语言

阅读

references/fieldwork.md

并准备：

参与者入选与排除标准
招募渠道
以行为为核心的访谈或观察指南
证据记录格式
样本量及停止调研的依据

用户可能自行开展会话并带回记录，或通过关联工具获取授权证据。切勿编造访谈内容，也不要用公开帖子替代访谈。

总结规律及反例。访谈仅能验证机制与背景，用户口头表达的热情不等于付费意愿。

7. Close demand gaps with a behavioral or commercial test

7. 通过行为或商业测试填补需求缺口

Choose the smallest test that exposes the weakest decisive claim to reality. Examples:

paid or deposit-backed pilot
concierge/manual delivery of the promised outcome
proposal or letter of intent with concrete obligations
pricing or packaging test with a real buying decision
smoke test measuring qualified conversion from a reachable audience
channel test measuring whether the target segment can be acquired
switching test that requires data, integration, or workflow commitment

Define before launch:

exact claim being tested
target participant and offer
observable behavior—not reported preference
pass / reshape / stop threshold
time and spend cap
what the test cannot prove

Help execute the test when tools and authorization permit. Otherwise, produce a run-ready protocol, pause at the human gate, and resume from returned results. Do not treat “I would use this,” waitlist signups, or compliments as payment.

选择最小规模的测试，将最薄弱的决定性主张暴露于现实中。示例：

付费或需缴纳押金的试点
人工提供承诺的结果（concierge/manual delivery）
带有具体义务的提案或意向书
涉及真实购买决策的定价或包装测试
针对可触达受众的烟雾测试，衡量合格转化率
渠道测试，衡量是否可获取目标用户群体
转换测试，要求用户投入数据、集成或工作流承诺

测试启动前需明确：

测试的具体主张
目标参与者及方案
可观察的行为——而非用户自述偏好
通过/重构/终止的阈值
时间与资金上限
测试无法证明的内容

若工具与授权允许，协助执行测试。否则，生成可直接执行的方案，在人工环节暂停，待结果返回后继续推进。切勿将“我会使用这个”、等待列表注册或赞美视为付费行为。

8. Decide without laundering uncertainty

8. 直面不确定性做出决策

Update every claim's evidence state, then issue:

Advance — enough evidence supports the next reversible investment
Reshape — the market signal exists, but customer, problem, buyer, offer, channel, or timing must change
Hold — the evidence is still insufficient and the next test is not currently worth its cost
Stop — strong evidence contradicts a decision-carrying claim or economics

Separate verdicts for:

problem
demand
buyer/budget
proposed offer
reachability

One positive customer or paid pilot is evidence, not proof of a repeatable market. State the next unvalidated risk even when the decision is Advance.

更新每个主张的证据状态，然后给出：

Advance（推进） — 有足够证据支持下一项可逆投资
Reshape（重构） — 存在市场信号，但客户、问题、买家、方案、渠道或时机需要调整
Hold（暂缓） — 证据仍不足，且当前开展下一轮测试的成本不值得
Stop（终止） — 强有力的证据与某一影响决策的主张矛盾，或经济上不可行

针对以下维度分别给出结论：

问题
需求
买家/预算
提议方案
可触达性

单个满意客户或付费试点仅为证据，而非可复制市场的证明。即使决策为推进，也要说明下一个未验证的风险。

9. Deliver the market-validation dossier

9. 交付市场验证 dossier（档案）

Read

references/artifacts.md

. The final dossier must show:

validation contract and decision
evidence progression from desk research through fieldwork and experiment
claim-by-claim evidence state and confidence
strongest supporting and contradicting evidence
customer, buyer, alternatives, and competitive reality
experiment result against its precommitted threshold
split verdict across problem, demand, buyer, offer, and reachability
Advance / Reshape / Hold / Stop recommendation
next investment and the risk it is intended to retire
source and research-coverage appendix

If field or behavioral work could not happen, deliver an interim validation brief, label it honestly, and leave a run-ready next test. Never dress a research report as completed market validation.

阅读

references/artifacts.md

。最终档案需包含：

验证协议及决策
从桌面调研到实地工作再到实验的证据演进过程
每个主张的证据状态及可信度
最有力的支持与反对证据
客户、买家、替代方案及竞争现状
实验结果与预设阈值的对比
针对问题、需求、买家、方案及可触达性的拆分结论
Advance / Reshape / Hold / Stop 建议
下一项投资及该投资旨在消除的风险
来源及调研覆盖范围附录

若无法开展实地或行为测试，则交付 临时验证简报，如实标注，并提供可直接执行的下一轮测试方案。切勿将调研报告伪装成已完成的市场验证。

Resuming long-running validation

恢复长期验证工作

At the start of a resumed session:

read the living validation brief
restate the active contract and current decision in one sentence
identify new evidence and which claim it changes
continue from the first open gate

Do not restart discovery or rewrite history when the hypothesis changes. Record what changed, why, and which earlier evidence still applies.

在恢复会话时：

阅读动态验证简报
用一句话表述当前的有效协议及决策
识别新证据及其影响的主张
从第一个未解决的环节继续推进

当假设发生变化时，无需重新开展调研或改写历史。记录变化内容、原因及仍适用的过往证据。

Guardrails

约束规则

Never equate market size, traffic, funding, or competitors with demand.
Never count duplicated claims as independent corroboration.
Never use interviews to claim payment, a landing page to claim retention, or a pilot to claim scalable acquisition.
Never hide contradictory or null evidence.
Never optimize the offer before confirming the customer and costly situation.
Never force venture-scale criteria onto a lifestyle business or internal tool.
Never claim “market validated” without behavior or commitment from the target customer or buyer.
Never continue validation after decisive negative evidence merely to produce a prettier report.

切勿将市场规模、流量、融资或竞争对手等同于需求。
切勿将重复主张视为独立佐证。
切勿用访谈证明付费意愿、用落地页证明留存、用试点证明可规模化获客。
切勿隐藏矛盾或无效证据。
在确认客户与高成本场景之前，切勿优化方案。
切勿将创业级标准强加于生活方式型业务或内部工具。
若无目标客户或买家的行为或承诺，切勿宣称“市场已验证”。
一旦出现决定性负面证据，切勿为了产出更美观的报告而继续验证。