scenario-war-room

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Original

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Translation

Chinese

Scenario War Room

Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.

为所有业务职能领域建模连锁假设场景。不同于单一假设压力测试——它模拟的是复合风险，展示一个问题如何引发下一个问题。

Keywords

关键词

scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

场景规划, war room, 假设分析, 风险建模, 连锁效应, 复合风险, 风险应对规划, 应急规划, 压力测试, 危机规划, 多变量场景, 事前复盘

Quick Start

快速开始

bash

python scripts/scenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling

Or describe the scenario:

/war-room "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?"
/war-room "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?"
/war-room "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"

bash

python scripts/scenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling

或者描述场景：

/war-room "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?"
/war-room "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?"
/war-room "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"

What This Is Not

这不是什么

Not a single-assumption stress test (that's
```
/em:stress-test
```
)
Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

不是单一假设压力测试（那是
```
/em:stress-test
```
）
不是仅财务建模——所有职能领域都会被建模
不是仅最坏情况——可建模3种严重程度等级
不是分析瘫痪——输出具体的对冲策略和触发信号

Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

框架：6步连锁模型

Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)

步骤1：定义场景变量（最多3个）

State each variable with:

What changes — specific, quantified if possible
Probability — your best estimate
Timeline — when it hits

Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown

为每个变量说明：

变化内容——具体描述，尽可能量化
概率——你的最佳估算值
时间线——何时发生

Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown

Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

步骤2：领域影响映射

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

Domain	Owner	Models
Cash & runway	CFO	Burn impact, runway change, bridge options
Revenue	CRO	ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline
Product	CPO	Roadmap impact, PMF risk
Engineering	CTO	Velocity impact, key person risk
People	CHRO	Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications
Operations	COO	Capacity, OKR impact, process risk
Security	CISO	Compliance timeline risk
Market	CMO	CAC impact, competitive exposure

针对每个变量，各相关角色建模其影响：

领域	负责人	建模内容
现金流与运营周期	CFO	消耗影响、运营周期变化、过渡融资方案
营收	CRO	ARR缺口、客户流失连锁风险、销售管线
产品	CPO	路线图影响、产品市场匹配（PMF）风险
工程	CTO	交付速度影响、关键人员风险
人力	CHRO	人员流失连锁效应、招聘冻结影响
运营	COO	产能、OKR影响、流程风险
安全	CISO	合规时间线风险
市场	CMO	用户获取成本（CAC）影响、竞争暴露

Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping

步骤3：连锁效应映射

This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:

TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  ↓
CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  ↓
CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)
  ↓
CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips
  ↓
CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk
  ↓
CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk
  ↓
CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]

Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.

这是核心部分。展示变量A如何引发各领域的后果，进而触发变量B的影响：

TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  ↓
CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  ↓
CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)
  ↓
CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips
  ↓
CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk
  ↓
CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk
  ↓
CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]

明确命名连锁效应。展示可中断连锁的节点。

Step 4: Severity Matrix

步骤4：严重程度矩阵

Model three scenarios:

Scenario	Definition	Recovery
Base	One variable hits; others don't	Manageable with plan
Stress	Two variables hit simultaneously	Requires significant response
Severe	All variables hit; full cascade	Existential; requires board intervention

For each severity level:

Runway impact
ARR impact
Headcount impact
Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)

建模三种场景：

场景	定义	恢复难度
基础级	仅一个变量发生；其余未发生	有计划即可应对
压力级	两个变量同时发生	需要重大应对措施
严重级	所有变量发生；完全连锁反应	关乎存亡；需要董事会介入

针对每个严重程度等级：

运营周期影响
ARR影响
人员规模影响
到达不可接受状态的时间线（触发点）

Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)

步骤5：触发点（预警信号）

Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding before it's confirmed:

Trigger for Customer Churn Risk:
  - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks
  - Usage drops >25% MoM
  - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1

Trigger for Fundraise Delay:
  - <3 term sheets after 60 days of process
  - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD
  - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)

Trigger for Engineering Attrition:
  - Glassdoor activity from engineering team
  - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers
  - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months

定义可衡量的信号，在场景实际发生之前告诉你它正在展开：

Trigger for Customer Churn Risk:
  - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks
  - Usage drops >25% MoM
  - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1

Trigger for Fundraise Delay:
  - <3 term sheets after 60 days of process
  - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD
  - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)

Trigger for Engineering Attrition:
  - Glassdoor activity from engineering team
  - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers
  - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months

Step 6: Hedging Strategies

步骤6：对冲策略

For each scenario: actions to take now (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.

Hedge	Cost	Impact	Owner	Deadline
Establish $500K credit line	$5K/year	Buys 3 months if churn hits	CFO	60 days
12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers	$90K	Locks team through fundraise	CHRO	30 days
Diversify to <20% revenue concentration per customer	Sales effort	Reduces single-customer risk	CRO	2 quarters
Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process	CEO time	Closes before runways merge	CEO	Immediate

针对每个场景：现在采取的行动（在场景实际发生前），以降低其发生时的影响。

对冲措施	成本	影响	负责人	截止日期
建立50万美元信用额度	每年5000美元	若客户流失，可延长3个月运营周期	CFO	60天内
为3名核心工程师提供12个月留任奖金	9万美元	锁定团队直至融资完成	CHRO	30天内
分散客户，单个客户营收占比降至<20%	销售投入	降低单一客户风险	CRO	2个季度内
压缩融资时间线，启动并行流程	CEO时间投入	在运营周期耗尽前完成融资	CEO	立即执行

Output Format

输出格式

Every war room session produces:

SCENARIO: [Name]
Variables: [A, B, C]
Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]

SEVERITY LEVELS
Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no]

CASCADE MAP
[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]

EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]

HEDGES (take these actions now)
1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]

RECOMMENDED DECISION
[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]

每次war room会话都会生成：

SCENARIO: [Name]
Variables: [A, B, C]
Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]

SEVERITY LEVELS
Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no]

CASCADE MAP
[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]

EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]

HEDGES (take these actions now)
1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]

RECOMMENDED DECISION
[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]

Rules for Good War Room Sessions

优质War Room会话规则

Max 3 variables per scenario. More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.

Quantify or estimate. "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain.

Don't stop at first-order effects. The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.

Model recovery, not just impact. Every scenario should have a "what we do" path.

Separate base case from sensitivity. Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen."

Don't over-model. 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.

**每个场景最多3个变量。**超过3个就是噪音——你无法有效应对5变量崩溃的情况。只建模真正让你担忧的3个变量。

量化或估算。“营收下降”毫无用处。“60天内面临42万美元ARR风险”才有用。若不确定可使用范围值。

**不要停留在一阶影响。**损害总是来自连锁效应，而非初始冲击。

**建模恢复方案，而非仅影响。**每个场景都应有“应对措施”路径。

**区分基础情况与敏感性分析。**不要混淆“可能发生的情况”与“可能发生的最坏情况”。

**不要过度建模。**每个规划周期3-4个场景最合适。过多会导致分析瘫痪。

Common Scenarios by Stage

按阶段划分的常见场景

Seed:

Co-founder leaves + product misses launch
Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable

Series A:

Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed
Key customer churns + competitor raises

Series B:

Market contraction + burn multiple spikes
Lead investor wants pivot + team resists

种子轮阶段：

联合创始人离职 + 产品错过发布时间
资金耗尽 + 过渡融资条款不利

A轮阶段：

未达成ARR目标 + 融资延迟
核心客户流失 + 竞争对手完成融资

B轮阶段：

市场收缩 + 消耗倍数飙升
领投方要求转型 + 团队抵制

Integration with C-Suite Roles

与高管角色的整合

Scenario Type	Primary Roles	Cascade To
Revenue miss	CRO, CFO	CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs)
Key person departure	CHRO, COO	CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales)
Fundraise failure	CFO, CEO	COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze)
Security breach	CISO, CTO	CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact)
Market shift	CEO, CPO	CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments)
Competitor move	CMO, CRO	CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy)

场景类型	核心角色	连锁影响至
营收未达标	CRO, CFO	CMO（销售管线）, COO（成本削减）, CHRO（裁员）
关键人员离职	CHRO, COO	CTO（若为工程人员）, CRO（若为销售）
融资失败	CFO, CEO	COO（延长运营周期）, CHRO（招聘冻结）
安全漏洞	CISO, CTO	CEO（公关）, CFO（成本）, CRO（客户影响）
市场转变	CEO, CPO	CMO（重新定位）, CRO（新细分市场）
竞争对手行动	CMO, CRO	CPO（路线图响应）, CEO（战略调整）

References

参考资料

```
references/scenario-planning.md
```
— Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks
```
scripts/scenario_modeler.py
```
— CLI tool for structured scenario modeling

```
references/scenario-planning.md
```
— Shell方法论、事前复盘、蒙特卡洛法、连锁模型框架
```
scripts/scenario_modeler.py
```
— 用于结构化场景建模的CLI工具