earnings-preview

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Earnings Preview

Earnings Preview（财报预览）

Workflow

工作流程

Step 1: Gather Context

步骤1：收集背景信息

Identify the company and reporting quarter
Pull consensus estimates via web search (revenue, EPS, key segment metrics)
Find the earnings date and time (pre-market vs. after-hours)
Review the company's prior quarter earnings call for any guidance or commentary

确定目标公司及报告季度
通过网络搜索获取市场一致预期（营收、EPS、关键细分业务指标）
查找财报发布日期和时间（盘前 vs. 盘后）
回顾公司上一季度的财报电话会议内容，获取相关指引或评论

Step 2: Key Metrics Framework

步骤2：关键指标框架

Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:

Financial Metrics:

Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment)
EPS vs. consensus
Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting?
Free cash flow
Forward guidance vs. consensus

Operational Metrics (sector-specific):

Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income
Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates

构建针对目标公司的“需关注事项”框架：

财务指标：

营收 vs. 市场一致预期（总营收及细分业务营收）
EPS vs. 市场一致预期
利润率（毛利率、营业利润率、净利率）——是增长还是收缩？
自由现金流
未来指引 vs. 市场一致预期

运营指标（分行业）：

科技/SaaS行业：ARR、净留存率、RPO、客户数量
零售行业：同店销售额、客流量、客单价
工业行业：未交付订单、订单出货比、价格 vs. 销量
金融行业：NIM、信贷质量、贷款增长、手续费收入
医疗行业：处方量、患者数量、管线进展

Step 3: Scenario Analysis

步骤3：场景分析

Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications:

Scenario	Revenue	EPS	Key Driver	Stock Reaction
Bull
Base
Bear

For each scenario:

What would need to happen operationally
What management commentary would signal this
Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints?

构建3种包含股价影响的场景：

场景（Scenario）	营收（Revenue）	EPS	核心驱动因素（Key Driver）	股价反应（Stock Reaction）
Bull（多头）
Base（基准）
Bear（空头）

针对每个场景：

运营层面需要出现哪些情况
管理层的哪些评论会预示该场景
历史背景——过去出现类似情况时股价如何变动？

Step 4: Catalyst Checklist

步骤4：催化剂清单

Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction:

[Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters
[Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear
[Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring

确定3-5个将决定股价反应的关键因素：

[指标] vs. [一致预期/传闻预期] — 重要性原因
[指引事项] — 买方期望听到的内容
[叙事转变] — 任何战略调整、并购、重组

Step 5: Output

步骤5：输出内容

One-page earnings preview with:

Company, quarter, earnings date
Consensus estimates table
Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance)
Bull/base/bear scenario table
Catalyst checklist
Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move from options

单页财报预览包含以下内容：

公司、季度、财报发布日期
市场一致预期表格
需关注的关键指标（按重要性排序）
Bull/base/bear场景表格
催化剂清单
交易准备：近期股价表现、期权隐含波动幅度

Important Notes

重要提示

Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates
"Whisper numbers" from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus
Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations (search for "[company] earnings reaction history")
Options-implied move tells you what the market expects — compare to your scenarios

市场一致预期会变动——务必注明预期的来源和日期
买方调研得出的“传闻预期（Whisper numbers）”通常比公开的一致预期更具参考性
历史财报反应有助于校准预期（可搜索“[company] earnings reaction history”）
期权隐含波动幅度反映市场预期——将其与你的场景进行对比