scientific-problem-selection

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Scientific Problem Selection Skills

科学问题选择技能

A conversational framework for systematic scientific problem selection based on Fischbach & Walsh's "Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering" (Cell, 2024).

基于Fischbach & Walsh于2024年发表在《Cell》期刊上的《科学与工程中的问题选择与决策树》一文构建的系统化科学问题选择对话框架。

Getting Started

入门指南

Present users with three entry points:

1) Pitch an idea for a new project — to work it up together

2) Share a problem in a current project — to troubleshoot together

3) Ask a strategic question — to navigate the decision tree together

This conversational entry meets scientists where they are and establishes a collaborative tone.

为用户提供三个入口点：

1) 提出新项目想法 — 共同完善它

2) 分享现有项目中的问题 — 共同解决它

3) 提出战略问题 — 共同梳理决策树

这种对话式入口贴合科学家的实际场景，能建立协作基调。

Option 1: Pitch an Idea

选项1：提出项目想法

Initial Prompt

初始提示语

Ask: "Tell me the short version of your idea (1-2 sentences)."

提问："请简要描述你的想法（1-2句话）。"

Response Approach

回应方法

After the user shares their idea, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding. Note the general area of research and rephrase the idea in a way that highlights its kernel—showing alignment and readiness to dive into details.

用户分享想法后，返回一段不超过一个段落的快速总结，展示你已理解内容。注明研究的大致领域，并重述想法以突出核心要点，体现你已对齐思路，准备深入细节。

Follow-up Prompt

后续提示语

Then ask for more detail: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly or even say where you are unsure:

What exactly you want to do
How you currently plan to do it
If it works, why will it be a big deal
What you think are the major risks"

接着请求更多细节：“现在请提供更多细节。你可以简要说明，甚至提及你不确定的部分：

你具体想做什么
目前计划如何实现
如果成功，它为何具有重大意义
你认为主要风险是什么”

Workflow

工作流程

From there, guide the user through the early stages of problem selection and evaluation:

Skill 1: Intuition Pumps - Refine and strengthen the idea
Skill 2: Risk Assessment - Identify and manage project risks
Skill 3: Optimization Function - Define success metrics
Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - Determine what to fix vs. keep flexible

See

references/01-intuition-pumps.md

references/02-risk-assessment.md

references/03-optimization-function.md

, and

references/04-parameter-strategy.md

for detailed guidance.

从这里开始，引导用户完成问题选择和评估的早期阶段：

Skill 1: Intuition Pumps - 优化并强化研究想法
Skill 2: Risk Assessment - 识别并管理项目风险
Skill 3: Optimization Function - 定义成功指标
Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - 确定固定与灵活调整的内容

详细指南请参阅

references/01-intuition-pumps.md

、

references/02-risk-assessment.md

、

references/03-optimization-function.md

和

references/04-parameter-strategy.md

。

Option 2: Troubleshoot a Problem

选项2：解决项目问题

Initial Prompt

初始提示语

Ask: "Tell me a short version of your problem (1-2 sentences or whatever is easy)."

提问："请简要描述你的问题（1-2句话即可）。"

Response Approach

回应方法

After the user shares their problem, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding. Note the context of the project where the problem occurred and rephrase the problem—highlighting its core essence—so the user knows the situation is understood. Also raise additional questions that seem important to discuss.

用户分享问题后，返回一段不超过一个段落的快速总结，展示你已理解内容。注明问题出现的项目背景，并重述问题以突出核心本质，让用户知道你已了解情况。同时提出需要讨论的重要补充问题。

Follow-up Prompt

后续提示语

Then ask: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly:

The overall goal of your project (if we have not talked about it before)
What exactly went wrong
Your current ideas for fixing it"

接着提问：“现在请提供更多细节。你可以简要说明：

项目的整体目标（如果之前未提及）
具体哪里出了问题
你目前想到的解决思路”

Workflow

工作流程

From there, guide the user through troubleshooting and decision tree navigation:

Skill 5: Decision Tree Navigation - Plan decision points and navigate between execution and strategic thinking
Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - Fix one parameter at a time, let others float
Skill 6: Adversity Response - Frame problems as opportunities for growth
Skill 7: Problem Inversion - Strategies for navigating around obstacles

Always include workarounds that might be useful whether or not the problem can be fixed easily.

See

references/05-decision-tree.md

references/06-adversity-planning.md

references/07-problem-inversion.md

, and

references/04-parameter-strategy.md

for detailed guidance.

从这里开始，引导用户完成问题排查和决策树梳理：

Skill 5: Decision Tree Navigation - 规划决策点，平衡执行与战略思考
Skill 4: Parameter Strategy - 一次固定一个参数，其他参数灵活调整
Skill 6: Adversity Response - 将问题视为成长机遇
Skill 7: Problem Inversion - 制定绕开障碍的策略

无论问题是否容易解决，都要提供实用的替代方案。

详细指南请参阅

references/05-decision-tree.md

、

references/06-adversity-planning.md

、

references/07-problem-inversion.md

和

references/04-parameter-strategy.md

。

Option 3: Ask a Strategic Question

选项3：提出战略问题

Initial Prompt

初始提示语

Ask: "Tell me the short version of your question (1-2 sentences)."

提问："请简要描述你的问题（1-2句话）。"

Response Approach

回应方法

After the user shares their question, return a quick summary (no more than one paragraph) demonstrating understanding. Note the broader context and rephrase the question—highlighting its crux—to confirm alignment with their thinking.

用户分享问题后，返回一段不超过一个段落的快速总结，展示你已理解内容。注明更广泛的背景，并重述问题以突出核心要点，确认与用户思路对齐。

Follow-up Prompt

后续提示语

Then ask: "Now give me a bit more detail. You might include, however briefly:

The setting (i.e., is this about a current or future project)
A bit more detail about what you're thinking"

接着提问：“现在请提供更多细节。你可以简要说明：

场景（即这是针对当前还是未来项目）
你的更多想法”

Workflow

工作流程

From there, draw on the specific modules from the problem choice framework most appropriate to the question:

Skills 1-4 for future project planning (ideation, risk, optimization, parameters)
Skills 5-7 for current project navigation (decision trees, adversity, inversion)
Skill 8 for communication and synthesis
Skill 9 for comprehensive workflow orchestration

See the complete reference materials in the

references/

folder.

从这里开始，根据问题选择最合适的问题选择框架模块：

Skills 1-4 用于未来项目规划（构思、风险、优化、参数）
Skills 5-7 用于当前项目推进（决策树、逆境应对、反向思考）
Skill 8 用于沟通与整合
Skill 9 用于全面工作流编排

完整参考资料请查看

references/

文件夹。

Core Framework Concepts

核心框架概念

The Central Insight

核心洞见

Problem Choice >> Execution Quality

Even brilliant execution of a mediocre problem yields incremental impact. Good execution of an important problem yields substantial impact.

问题选择 >> 执行质量

即使对平庸问题的出色执行，也只能带来增量影响。而对重要问题的良好执行，能产生实质性影响。

The Time Paradox

时间悖论

Scientists typically spend:

Days choosing a problem
Years solving it

This imbalance limits impact. These skills help invest more time choosing wisely.

科学家通常会花费：

数天选择问题
数年解决问题

这种失衡限制了研究影响力。本技能帮助科学家在问题选择上投入更多时间，做出更明智的选择。

Evaluation Axes

评估维度

For Evaluating Ideas:

X-axis: Likelihood of success
Y-axis: Impact if successful

Skills help move ideas rightward (more feasible) and upward (more impactful).

用于评估想法：

X轴： 成功可能性
Y轴： 成功后的影响力

本技能帮助想法向右（更可行）和向上（更具影响力）发展。

The Risk Paradox

风险悖论

Don't avoid risk—befriend it
No risk = incremental work
But: Multiple miracles = avoid or refine
Balance: Understood, quantified, manageable risk

不要规避风险——要与风险共处
无风险 = 增量工作
但：多个“奇迹式”假设 = 规避或优化
平衡： 可理解、可量化、可管理的风险

The Parameter Paradox

参数悖论

Too many fixed = brittleness
Too few fixed = paralysis
Sweet spot: Fix ONE meaningful constraint

固定参数过多 = 脆弱性
固定参数过少 = 决策瘫痪
最佳平衡点： 固定一个有意义的约束条件

The Adversity Principle

逆境原则

Crises are inevitable (don't be surprised)
Crises are opportune (don't waste them)
Strategy: Fix problem AND upgrade project simultaneously

危机不可避免（无需惊讶）
危机是机遇（不要浪费）
策略： 解决问题的同时升级项目

The 9 Skills Overview

9项技能概述

Skill	Purpose	Output	Time
1. Intuition Pumps	Generate high-quality research ideas	Problem Ideation Document	~1 week
2. Risk Assessment	Identify and manage project risks	Risk Assessment Matrix	3-5 days
3. Optimization Function	Define success metrics	Impact Assessment Document	2-3 days
4. Parameter Strategy	Decide what to fix vs. keep flexible	Parameter Strategy Document	2-3 days
5. Decision Tree Navigation	Plan decision points and altitude dance	Decision Tree Map	2 days
6. Adversity Response	Prepare for crises as opportunities	Adversity Playbook	2 days
7. Problem Inversion	Navigate around obstacles	Problem Inversion Analysis	1 day
8. Integration & Synthesis	Synthesize into coherent plan	Project Communication Package	3-5 days
9. Meta-Framework	Orchestrate complete workflow	Complete Project Package	1-6 weeks

技能	目标	输出	耗时
1. Intuition Pumps	生成高质量研究想法	研究想法文档	~1周
2. Risk Assessment	识别并管理项目风险	风险评估矩阵	3-5天
3. Optimization Function	定义成功指标	影响力评估文档	2-3天
4. Parameter Strategy	确定固定与灵活调整的内容	参数策略文档	2-3天
5. Decision Tree Navigation	规划决策点，平衡执行与战略思考	决策树图谱	2天
6. Adversity Response	将危机视为机遇做准备	逆境应对手册	2天
7. Problem Inversion	制定绕开障碍的策略	反向问题分析报告	1天
8. Integration & Synthesis	整合成连贯计划	项目沟通包	3-5天
9. Meta-Framework	编排完整工作流	完整项目包	1-6周

Skill Workflow

技能工作流

SKILL 1: Intuition Pumps
         | (generates idea)
         v
SKILL 2: Risk Assessment
         | (evaluates feasibility)
         v
SKILL 3: Optimization Function
         | (defines success metrics)
         v
SKILL 4: Parameter Strategy
         | (determines flexibility)
         v
SKILL 5: Decision Tree
         | (plans execution and evaluation)
         v
SKILL 6: Adversity Planning
         | (prepares for failure modes)
         v
SKILL 7: Problem Inversion
         | (provides pivot strategies)
         v
SKILL 8: Integration & Communication
         | (synthesizes into coherent plan)
         v
SKILL 9: Meta-Skill
         (orchestrates complete workflow)

SKILL 1: Intuition Pumps
         | (generates idea)
         v
SKILL 2: Risk Assessment
         | (evaluates feasibility)
         v
SKILL 3: Optimization Function
         | (defines success metrics)
         v
SKILL 4: Parameter Strategy
         | (determines flexibility)
         v
SKILL 5: Decision Tree
         | (plans execution and evaluation)
         v
SKILL 6: Adversity Planning
         | (prepares for failure modes)
         v
SKILL 7: Problem Inversion
         | (provides pivot strategies)
         v
SKILL 8: Integration & Communication
         | (synthesizes into coherent plan)
         v
SKILL 9: Meta-Skill
         (orchestrates complete workflow)

Key Design Principles

核心设计原则

Conversational Entry - Meet users where they are with three clear starting points
Thoughtful Interaction - Ask clarifying questions; low confidence prompts additional input
Literature Integration - Use PubMed searches at strategic points for validation
Concrete Outputs - Every skill produces tangible 1-2 page documents
Building Specificity - Progressive detail emerges through targeted questions
Flexibility - Skills work independently, sequentially, or iteratively
Scientific Rigor - Claims about generality and feasibility should be evidence-based

对话式入口 - 通过三个清晰的起点贴合用户实际场景
深度互动 - 提出澄清问题；对低确定性内容请求更多输入
文献整合 - 在关键节点使用PubMed搜索验证内容
具象输出 - 每项技能都生成1-2页的有形文档
逐步细化 - 通过针对性提问逐步完善细节
灵活性 - 技能可独立、顺序或迭代使用
科学严谨性 - 关于通用性和可行性的主张需基于证据

Who Should Use These Skills

适用人群

Graduate Students (Primary Audience)

研究生（主要受众）

When: Choosing thesis projects, qualifying exams, committee meetings
Focus: Skills 1-3 (ideation, risk, impact) + Skill 9 (complete workflow)
Timeline: 2-4 weeks for comprehensive planning

适用场景： 选择论文项目、资格考试、委员会会议
重点技能： Skills 1-3（构思、风险、影响力） + Skill 9（完整工作流）
时间线： 2-4周完成全面规划

Postdocs

博士后

When: Starting new position, planning independent projects, fellowship applications
Focus: All skills, emphasizing independence and risk management
Timeline: 1-2 weeks intensive planning

适用场景： 入职新岗位、规划独立项目、申请奖学金
重点技能： 所有技能，强调独立性和风险管理
时间线： 1-2周集中规划

Principal Investigators

首席研究员（PI）

When: New lab, new direction, mentoring trainees, grant cycles
Focus: Skills 1, 3, 4, 6 (ideation, impact, parameters, adversity)
Timeline: Ongoing, integrate into lab culture

适用场景： 新建实验室、开辟新方向、指导学员、基金申请周期
重点技能： Skills 1、3、4、6（构思、影响力、参数、逆境应对）
时间线： 持续使用，融入实验室文化

Startup Founders

初创企业创始人

When: Company inception, pivot decisions, investor pitches
Focus: Skills 1-4 (ideation through parameters) + Skill 8 (communication)
Timeline: 1-2 weeks for initial planning, revisit quarterly

适用场景： 公司创立、转型决策、投资者路演
重点技能： Skills 1-4（构思至参数） + Skill 8（沟通）
时间线： 1-2周完成初始规划，每季度回顾

Reference Materials

参考资料

Detailed skill documentation is available in the

references/

folder:

File	Content	Search Patterns
`01-intuition-pumps.md`	Generate research ideas	`Intuition Pump #` , `Trap #` , `Phase [0-9]`
`02-risk-assessment.md`	Risk identification	`Risk.*1-5` , `go/no-go` , `assumption`
`03-optimization-function.md`	Success metrics	`Generality.*Learning` , `optimization` , `impact`
`04-parameter-strategy.md`	Parameter fixation	`fixed.*float` , `constraint` , `parameter`
`05-decision-tree.md`	Decision tree navigation	`altitude` , `Level [0-9]` , `decision`
`06-adversity-planning.md`	Adversity response	`adversity` , `crisis` , `ensemble`
`07-problem-inversion.md`	Problem inversion strategies	`Strategy [0-9]` , `inversion` , `goal`
`08-integration-synthesis.md`	Integration and synthesis	`narrative` , `communication` , `story`
`09-meta-framework.md`	Complete workflow	`Phase` , `workflow` , `orchestrat`

详细技能文档请查看

references/

文件夹：

文件	内容	搜索关键词
`01-intuition-pumps.md`	生成研究想法	`Intuition Pump #` , `Trap #` , `Phase [0-9]`
`02-risk-assessment.md`	风险识别	`Risk.*1-5` , `go/no-go` , `assumption`
`03-optimization-function.md`	成功指标定义	`Generality.*Learning` , `optimization` , `impact`
`04-parameter-strategy.md`	参数固定策略	`fixed.*float` , `constraint` , `parameter`
`05-decision-tree.md`	决策树梳理	`altitude` , `Level [0-9]` , `decision`
`06-adversity-planning.md`	逆境应对	`adversity` , `crisis` , `ensemble`
`07-problem-inversion.md`	反向问题策略	`Strategy [0-9]` , `inversion` , `goal`
`08-integration-synthesis.md`	整合与合成	`narrative` , `communication` , `story`
`09-meta-framework.md`	完整工作流	`Phase` , `workflow` , `orchestrat`

Expected Outcomes

预期成果

Immediate (After Completing Workflow)

即时成果（完成工作流后）

Clear project vision
Honest risk assessment
Contingency plans
Communication materials ready
Confidence in problem choice

清晰的项目愿景
真实的风险评估
应急预案
现成的沟通材料
对问题选择的信心

6-Month

6个月后

Faster decisions (have framework)
Productive adversity handling
No existential crises (risks mitigated)

更快的决策速度（拥有框架指导）
高效的逆境处理
无生存危机（风险已缓解）

2-Year

2年后

Published results or strong progress
Avoided dead-end projects
Career aligned with goals
Time well-spent (ultimate measure)

已发表成果或显著进展
避免了死胡同项目
职业发展与目标对齐
时间高效利用（最终衡量标准）

Foundational Reference

基础参考文献

Fischbach, M.A., & Walsh, C.T. (2024). "Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering." Cell, 187, 1828-1833.

Based on course BIOE 395 taught at Stanford University.

Fischbach, M.A., & Walsh, C.T. (2024). "Problem choice and decision trees in science and engineering." Cell, 187, 1828-1833.

基于斯坦福大学BIOE 395课程内容开发。