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CAC and LTV Analysis

CAC与LTV分析

Overview

概述

CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) and LTV (Customer Lifetime Value) are the two fundamental unit economics metrics. Together they answer: "Does each customer generate more revenue than it costs to acquire them?" The LTV:CAC ratio is the single most important indicator of marketing efficiency and business model viability.
CAC（客户获取成本）和LTV（客户生命周期价值）是两个核心的单位经济效益指标。二者共同解答了一个问题：“每个客户带来的收入是否超过获取他们的成本？”LTV:CAC比率是衡量营销效率和商业模式可行性的最重要指标。

When to Use

适用场景

Trigger conditions:
  • User evaluating marketing spend efficiency
  • User asks "what's each customer worth?" or "are we spending too much on marketing?"
  • User assessing business model viability or fundraising metrics
  • User needs to allocate budget across acquisition channels
When NOT to use:
  • For product pricing decisions → use Pricing Strategy
  • For customer segmentation → use STP or RFM
  • For comprehensive financial analysis → use financial ratios
触发条件：
  • 用户评估营销费用效率
  • 用户询问“每个客户的价值是多少？”或“我们在营销上花费太多了吗？”
  • 用户评估商业模式可行性或融资指标
  • 用户需要在不同获客渠道间分配预算
不适用场景：
  • 产品定价决策 → 使用定价策略技能
  • 客户细分 → 使用STP或RFM技能
  • 全面财务分析 → 使用财务比率技能

Framework

框架

IRON LAW: LTV:CAC > 3 for Healthy Business

LTV:CAC ratio must be at least 3:1 for sustainable businesses.
- < 1:1 = You're LOSING money on every customer
- 1-3:1 = Unsustainable unless you can reduce CAC or increase LTV
- 3-5:1 = Healthy
- > 5:1 = Potentially underinvesting in growth (leaving market share on the table)

This ratio applies to the BLENDED average. Individual channels can be
below 3:1 if the overall blend exceeds it.
IRON LAW: CAC Must Include ALL Acquisition Costs

CAC = Total marketing & sales spend / Number of new customers acquired

"Total spend" includes: ad spend, marketing team salaries, sales team
salaries, tools, content production, events — EVERYTHING spent to acquire
customers in that period. Excluding salaries or tools understates true CAC.
铁律：健康业务的LTV:CAC > 3

可持续经营的企业，LTV:CAC比率至少要达到3:1。
- < 1:1 = 每获取一个客户都在亏损
- 1-3:1 = 不可持续，除非降低CAC或提升LTV
- 3-5:1 = 健康状态
- > 5:1 = 可能在增长上投入不足（错失市场份额）

该比率适用于整体平均值。如果整体比率超过3:1，单个渠道的比率可以低于3:1。
铁律：CAC必须包含所有获客成本

CAC = 总营销与销售费用 / 新增客户数量

“总费用”包括：广告支出、营销团队薪资、销售团队薪资、工具费用、内容制作成本、活动费用 —— 该周期内所有用于获取客户的支出。如果遗漏薪资或工具费用，会低估真实的CAC。

Step 1: Calculate CAC

步骤1：计算CAC

Basic formula:
CAC = Total acquisition spend in period / New customers acquired in period
By channel:
CAC (Channel X) = Spend on Channel X / Customers from Channel X
Include in total acquisition spend:
  • Advertising (digital + offline)
  • Marketing team compensation
  • Sales team compensation (for B2B)
  • Marketing tools and software
  • Content production costs
  • Events and sponsorships
  • Agency fees
基础公式：
CAC = 周期内总获客费用 / 周期内新增客户数量
按渠道计算：
CAC（渠道X）= 渠道X的支出 / 渠道X带来的客户数量
总获客费用包含：
  • 广告（线上+线下）
  • 营销团队薪酬
  • 销售团队薪酬（B2B场景）
  • 营销工具与软件
  • 内容制作成本
  • 活动与赞助
  • 代理费用

Step 2: Calculate LTV

步骤2：计算LTV

Simple formula:
LTV = ARPU × Gross Margin % × Average Customer Lifespan
Where:
  • ARPU = Average Revenue Per User per period (monthly or annual)
  • Gross Margin % = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue
  • Average Customer Lifespan = 1 / Churn Rate
Cohort-based (more accurate): Track actual revenue per customer cohort over time. Sum cumulative revenue per customer, apply gross margin.
简化公式：
LTV = ARPU × 毛利率 × 平均客户生命周期
其中：
  • ARPU = 周期内每用户平均收入（月度或年度）
  • 毛利率 = (收入 - 销货成本) / 收入
  • 平均客户生命周期 = 1 / 流失率
基于同期群组的计算（更准确）： 跟踪不同同期群组客户的实际收入变化。累加每个客户的累计收入，再乘以毛利率。

Step 3: Calculate Key Ratios

步骤3：计算关键比率

MetricFormulaHealthy Benchmark
LTV:CACLTV / CAC> 3:1
Payback PeriodCAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin)< 12 months
CAC % of LTVCAC / LTV × 100< 33%
指标公式健康基准
LTV:CACLTV / CAC> 3:1
回收期CAC / (ARPU × 毛利率)< 12个月
CAC占LTV的比例CAC / LTV × 100< 33%

Step 4: Segment Analysis

步骤4：细分分析

Calculate CAC and LTV by:
  • Channel: Which acquisition channels are most efficient?
  • Customer segment: Which segments have highest LTV:CAC?
  • Cohort: Is LTV improving or degrading over time?
按以下维度计算CAC和LTV：
  • 渠道：哪些获客渠道效率最高？
  • 客户细分：哪些细分群体的LTV:CAC最高？
  • 同期群组：LTV随时间是提升还是下降？

Step 5: Optimization Strategies

步骤5：优化策略

To reduce CAC:
  • Shift budget to lower-CAC channels
  • Improve conversion rates (better landing pages, sales process)
  • Increase organic/referral acquisition (content, word-of-mouth)
To increase LTV:
  • Reduce churn (improve product, customer success)
  • Increase ARPU (upsell, cross-sell, price increases)
  • Extend customer lifespan (loyalty programs, switching costs)
降低CAC的方法：
  • 将预算转移至低CAC渠道
  • 提升转化率（优化落地页、销售流程）
  • 增加自然流量/推荐获客（内容营销、口碑传播）
提升LTV的方法：
  • 降低流失率（优化产品、客户成功服务）
  • 提升ARPU（向上销售、交叉销售、提价）
  • 延长客户生命周期（忠诚度计划、转换成本）

Output Format

输出格式

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

CAC-LTV Analysis: {Company/Product}

CAC-LTV分析：{公司/产品}

Unit Economics Summary

单位经济效益摘要

MetricValueBenchmarkStatus
CAC (blended)${X}——
LTV${X}——
LTV:CAC{X}:1> 3:1✓/✗
Payback Period{X} months< 12 months✓/✗
指标数值基准状态
整体CAC${X}——
LTV${X}——
LTV:CAC{X}:1> 3:1✓/✗
回收期{X} 个月< 12个月✓/✗

CAC by Channel

各渠道CAC

ChannelSpendCustomersCAC% of Total
{channel}${X}{N}${X}{X%}
渠道支出客户数量CAC占总获客的比例
{渠道名称}${X}{N}${X}{X%}

LTV Calculation

LTV计算过程

  • ARPU: ${X}/month
  • Gross Margin: {X%}
  • Avg Lifespan: {X} months (churn rate: {X%}/month)
  • LTV = ${X}
  • ARPU：${X}/月
  • 毛利率：{X%}
  • 平均生命周期：{X} 个月（月流失率：{X%}）
  • LTV = ${X}

LTV:CAC by Segment

各细分群体的LTV:CAC

SegmentCACLTVRatioAction
{seg A}${X}${X}{X}:1Invest / Maintain / Cut
细分群体CACLTV比率行动建议
{细分群体A}${X}${X}{X}:1加大投入 / 维持 / 削减预算

Optimization Recommendations

优化建议

  1. ...
  2. ...
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  1. ...
  2. ...
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Examples

示例

Correct Application

正确应用

Scenario: CAC-LTV for a Taiwanese B2C subscription box (monthly NT$599)
CAC calculation:
ItemMonthly Spend
Facebook/Instagram adsNT$200,000
Google AdsNT$80,000
KOL partnershipsNT$50,000
Marketing team (2 people)NT$120,000
TotalNT$450,000
New customers in month: 300 CAC = NT$450,000 / 300 = NT$1,500
LTV calculation:
  • ARPU: NT$599/month
  • Gross Margin: 55%
  • Monthly churn: 8% → Avg lifespan: 1/0.08 = 12.5 months
  • LTV = NT$599 × 0.55 × 12.5 = NT$4,118
LTV:CAC = 4,118 / 1,500 = 2.75:1 — Below the 3:1 threshold. Need to either reduce CAC or improve retention.
场景：某台湾B2C订阅盒的CAC-LTV分析（月费新台币599元）
CAC计算：
项目月度支出
Facebook/Instagram广告新台币200,000元
Google Ads新台币80,000元
KOL合作新台币50,000元
营销团队（2人）新台币120,000元
总计新台币450,000元
当月新增客户：300人 CAC = 新台币450,000元 / 300人 = 新台币1,500元
LTV计算：
  • ARPU：新台币599元/月
  • 毛利率：55%
  • 月流失率：8% → 平均生命周期：1/0.08 = 12.5个月
  • LTV = 新台币599元 × 0.55 × 12.5 = 新台币4,118元
LTV:CAC = 4,118 / 1,500 = 2.75:1 — 低于3:1的阈值，需要降低CAC或提升留存率。

Incorrect Application

错误应用

What went wrong:
  • CAC calculated as "ad spend / new customers" only, excluding NT$120K/month marketing team salary → True CAC is NT$1,500, not NT$1,100. Violates Iron Law: include ALL acquisition costs.
  • LTV:CAC of 1.8:1 reported as "good because we're growing" → Growth at LTV:CAC < 3:1 means you're growing into larger losses. Violates Iron Law: ratio must be > 3:1.
问题所在：
  • CAC仅按“广告支出 / 新增客户”计算，未包含每月12万新台币的营销团队薪资 → 真实CAC为1,500新台币，而非1,100新台币。违反铁律：必须包含所有获客成本。
  • 报告LTV:CAC为1.8:1时称“因为我们在增长，所以情况良好” → LTV:CAC <3:1时的增长，意味着亏损规模也在扩大。违反铁律：比率必须>3:1。

Gotchas

注意事项

  • Attribution is messy: A customer who saw an Instagram ad, Googled your brand, then signed up via a referral link — which channel gets credit? Be consistent in attribution methodology (first-touch, last-touch, or multi-touch).
  • Blended vs marginal CAC: Blended CAC includes all channels. Marginal CAC is the cost of acquiring ONE MORE customer. As you scale, marginal CAC typically rises (best channels saturate first).
  • LTV is always an estimate: Future churn and spending behavior are uncertain. Use conservative assumptions and update with real cohort data as it accumulates.
  • Payback period matters for cash flow: Even with LTV:CAC of 5:1, if payback takes 24 months, you need significant upfront capital. Fast-growing companies can die from long payback periods despite great unit economics.
  • Negative churn is a superpower: If expansion revenue (upsells) exceeds lost revenue (churn), Net Revenue Retention > 100%. This means LTV grows over time — the best possible scenario.
  • 归因难度大：客户可能先看到Instagram广告，再搜索品牌，最后通过推荐链接注册 —— 该将功劳归于哪个渠道？归因方法要保持一致（首次接触、末次接触或多触点归因）。
  • 整体CAC vs 边际CAC：整体CAC包含所有渠道的成本。边际CAC是获取“再多一个客户”的成本。随着规模扩大，边际CAC通常会上升（最优渠道会先饱和）。
  • LTV始终是估算值：未来的流失和消费行为存在不确定性。使用保守假设，并随着同期群组数据的积累不断更新。
  • 回收期对现金流至关重要：即使LTV:CAC达到5:1，如果回收期长达24个月，也需要大量前期资金。增长迅速的公司可能会因回收期过长而倒闭，尽管单位经济效益良好。
  • 负流失是超强优势：如果扩增收官（向上销售）超过流失收入，净收入留存率>100%。这意味着LTV会随时间增长 —— 这是最佳场景。

Scripts

脚本

ScriptDescriptionUsage
scripts/cac_ltv.py
Compute CAC, LTV, LTV/CAC ratio, and payback period
python scripts/cac_ltv.py --help
Run 
python scripts/cac_ltv.py --verify
to execute built-in sanity tests.
脚本描述使用方式
scripts/cac_ltv.py
计算CAC、LTV、LTV/CAC比率和回收期
python scripts/cac_ltv.py --help
运行 
python scripts/cac_ltv.py --verify
执行内置的合理性测试。

References

参考资料

  • For cohort-based LTV calculation methods, see 
    references/cohort-ltv.md
  • For channel attribution models, see 
    references/attribution-models.md
  • 关于基于同期群组的LTV计算方法，参见 
    references/cohort-ltv.md
  • 关于渠道归因模型，参见 
    references/attribution-models.md