Back to Details

meta-decision-analysis

Compare original and translation side by side

🇺🇸

Original

English
🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Decision Analysis

决策分析

Framework

框架

IRON LAW: Make Criteria and Weights Explicit BEFORE Evaluating Options

Choosing criteria after seeing the options lets bias sneak in — you
unconsciously weight criteria that favor your preferred option.
Define criteria, assign weights, THEN score options.
IRON LAW: Make Criteria and Weights Explicit BEFORE Evaluating Options

Choosing criteria after seeing the options lets bias sneak in — you
unconsciously weight criteria that favor your preferred option.
Define criteria, assign weights, THEN score options.

Decision Matrix (Weighted Scoring)

决策矩阵（加权评分法）

  1. List alternatives (3-6 options including "do nothing")
  2. Define criteria (4-8 factors that matter)
  3. Weight criteria (must sum to 100%)
  4. Score each option per criterion (1-5 or 1-10)
  5. Calculate weighted total = Σ(score × weight)
  6. Sensitivity check: Does the winner change if you adjust the top-weighted criterion?
  1. 列出备选方案（3-6个选项，包含“不采取任何行动”）
  2. 定义评估准则（4-8个关键影响因素）
  3. 为准则分配权重（权重总和必须为100%）
  4. 为每个选项按准则打分（1-5分或1-10分）
  5. 计算加权总分 = Σ(分数 × 权重)
  6. 敏感性检查：调整权重最高的准则后，结果是否会发生变化？

Decision Tree (Sequential Decisions Under Uncertainty)

决策树（不确定性下的序贯决策）

For decisions with uncertainty and sequential steps:
  1. Map decision nodes (squares) and chance nodes (circles)
  2. Assign probabilities to chance outcomes (must sum to 1.0)
  3. Assign payoffs to terminal nodes
  4. Calculate Expected Value = Σ(probability × payoff)
  5. Choose the branch with highest EV (or best risk-adjusted outcome)
适用于存在不确定性和序贯步骤的决策：
  1. 绘制决策节点（方形）和机会节点（圆形）
  2. 为机会结果分配概率（概率总和必须为1.0）
  3. 为终端节点分配收益值
  4. 计算期望值 = Σ(概率 × 收益值)
  5. 选择期望值最高（或风险调整后最优）的分支

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

多准则决策分析（MCDA）

For complex decisions with competing stakeholder priorities:
  1. Each stakeholder defines their criteria and weights independently
  2. Aggregate into a combined weighted matrix
  3. Identify where stakeholders agree (easy decisions) and disagree (requires negotiation)
适用于存在相互冲突的利益相关方优先级的复杂决策：
  1. 每位利益相关方独立定义自身的评估准则和权重
  2. 整合为一个统一的加权矩阵
  3. 识别利益相关方达成共识的部分（易决策）和存在分歧的部分（需协商）

Output Format

输出格式

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

Decision Analysis: {Decision}

Decision Analysis: {Decision}

Alternatives

Alternatives

  1. {Option A}
  2. {Option B}
  3. {Option C}
  1. {Option A}
  2. {Option B}
  3. {Option C}

Decision Matrix

Decision Matrix

CriterionWeightOption AOption BOption C
{criterion 1}{X%}{1-5}{1-5}{1-5}
Weighted Total100%{total}{total}{total}
CriterionWeightOption AOption BOption C
{criterion 1}{X%}{1-5}{1-5}{1-5}
Weighted Total100%{total}{total}{total}

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

  • If {criterion} weight changes from X% to Y%, winner changes from {A} to {B}
  • If {criterion} weight changes from X% to Y%, winner changes from {A} to {B}

Recommendation

Recommendation

{Winner with rationale and key trade-offs acknowledged}
undefined
{Winner with rationale and key trade-offs acknowledged}
undefined

Gotchas

常见误区

  • "Do nothing" is always an option: Include it as a baseline. Sometimes the best decision is to wait.
  • Scores are subjective: A score of "4" from one person ≠ "4" from another. Calibrate by defining what each score means before scoring.
  • Expected value ignores risk preference: EV of $50 (certain) vs EV of $50 (50% chance of $0, 50% chance of $100) are equal by EV but feel very different. For high-stakes decisions, use risk-adjusted metrics.
  • Analysis paralysis: Decision analysis should accelerate decisions, not delay them. Set a time limit for the analysis.
  • “不采取任何行动”始终是一个选项：将其作为基线纳入考量。有时最佳决策就是等待。
  • 打分具有主观性：一个人给出的“4分”≠另一个人给出的“4分”。打分前需明确每个分数的定义以校准标准。
  • 期望值未考虑风险偏好：确定的50美元期望值与50%概率得0美元、50%概率得100美元的期望值相等，但实际感受差异极大。对于高风险决策，需使用风险调整指标。
  • 分析瘫痪：决策分析应加速决策而非拖延决策。为分析过程设定时间限制。

References

参考资料

  • For decision tree software tools, see 
    references/decision-tools.md
  • 如需决策树软件工具，请查看
    references/decision-tools.md