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Lean Startup

精益创业（Lean Startup）

Framework

框架

IRON LAW: Validate Before You Build

Every product decision is a hypothesis. The most expensive way to test
a hypothesis is to build the full product. The cheapest is to test the
riskiest assumption FIRST with the minimum possible effort.

"Build it and they will come" is not a strategy — it's a prayer.
IRON LAW: Validate Before You Build

Every product decision is a hypothesis. The most expensive way to test
a hypothesis is to build the full product. The cheapest is to test the
riskiest assumption FIRST with the minimum possible effort.

"Build it and they will come" is not a strategy — it's a prayer.

Build-Measure-Learn Loop

Build-Measure-Learn循环

  1. Build: Create the smallest possible thing that tests your riskiest assumption (MVP)
  2. Measure: Collect data on whether the assumption holds (actionable metrics, not vanity metrics)
  3. Learn: Did the data validate or invalidate the assumption?
    • Validated → double down, test next assumption
    • Invalidated → pivot (change strategy) or persevere (refine execution)
  1. 构建（Build）：创建最小可行的产物来测试你风险最高的假设（即MVP）
  2. 衡量（Measure）：收集数据验证假设是否成立（使用可行动指标，而非虚荣指标）
  3. 学习（Learn）：数据是否验证或推翻了假设？
    • 验证成立 → 加大投入，测试下一个假设
    • 验证不成立 → 转型（调整策略）或坚持（优化执行）

MVP Types (Ordered by Effort)

MVP类型（按投入成本排序）

MVP TypeEffortWhat It Tests
Landing pageHours"Do people want this?" (signup conversion)
Explainer videoDays"Do people understand and desire this?"
ConciergeDays"Can we deliver value manually?" (do it by hand for 10 customers)
Wizard of OzWeeks"Does the full experience work?" (fake the backend, real frontend)
Single-featureWeeks"Does this core feature solve the problem?"
Functional prototypeMonths"Can we build this and do users adopt it?"
MVP类型投入成本测试内容
Landing page数小时"用户是否需要这个？"（注册转化率）
讲解视频（Explainer video）数天"用户是否理解并渴望这个产品？"
Concierge（礼宾式MVP）数天"我们能否手动传递价值？"（为10位客户提供人工服务）
Wizard of Oz（绿野仙踪式MVP）数周"完整体验是否可行？"（前端真实，后端模拟）
单一功能产品（Single-feature）数周"这个核心功能能否解决问题？"
功能原型（Functional prototype）数月"我们能否构建这个产品并让用户接受？"

Vanity Metrics vs Actionable Metrics

虚荣指标 vs 可行动指标

Vanity (avoid)Actionable (use)
Total signupsActivation rate (% who complete onboarding)
Page viewsConversion rate (% who take desired action)
DownloadsRetention (% who return after 7/30 days)
Total revenueRevenue per user, LTV:CAC
虚荣指标（避免）可行动指标（使用）
总注册量激活率（完成入门流程的用户占比）
页面浏览量转化率（采取期望行动的用户占比）
下载量留存率（7/30天后返回的用户占比）
总营收用户营收、LTV:CAC（客户终身价值与客户获取成本比）

Pivot Triggers

转型触发条件

Consider pivoting when:
  • Metrics flat after 2-3 iteration cycles
  • Customer feedback consistently requests something different than what you're building
  • Unit economics don't improve with scale
  • The team's enthusiasm has shifted to a different problem
当出现以下情况时，考虑转型：
  • 经过2-3轮迭代周期后指标停滞不前
  • 客户反馈持续要求与当前产品不同的功能
  • 单位经济效益未随规模扩大而提升
  • 团队热情转向其他问题

Pivot Types

转型类型

PivotWhat Changes
Customer segmentSame product, different target
ProblemSame customer, different problem to solve
SolutionSame problem, different approach
ChannelSame product, different distribution method
Revenue modelSame product, different pricing/business model
PlatformSingle product → platform (or vice versa)
转型类型变更内容
客户细分产品相同，目标客户不同
问题定位客户相同，解决的问题不同
解决方案问题相同，解决方式不同
渠道产品相同，分销方式不同
营收模式产品相同，定价/商业模式不同
平台单一产品 → 平台（反之亦然）

Output Format

输出格式

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

Lean Startup Plan: {Product/Idea}

Lean Startup Plan: {Product/Idea}

Riskiest Assumption

Riskiest Assumption

{The one thing that must be true for this to work}
{The one thing that must be true for this to work}

MVP Design

MVP Design

  • Type: {landing page / concierge / etc.}
  • What it tests: {specific assumption}
  • Build time: {hours/days/weeks}
  • Success metric: {specific threshold}
  • Type: {landing page / concierge / etc.}
  • What it tests: {specific assumption}
  • Build time: {hours/days/weeks}
  • Success metric: {specific threshold}

Build-Measure-Learn Plan

Build-Measure-Learn Plan

CycleBuildMeasureLearn
1{MVP}{metric + threshold}Validate/Pivot?
2{iteration}{metric}...
CycleBuildMeasureLearn
1{MVP}{metric + threshold}Validate/Pivot?
2{iteration}{metric}...

Pivot/Persevere Criteria

Pivot/Persevere Criteria

  • Persevere if: {specific metric threshold met}
  • Pivot if: {specific metric threshold not met after N cycles}
undefined
  • Persevere if: {specific metric threshold met}
  • Pivot if: {specific metric threshold not met after N cycles}
undefined

Gotchas

注意事项

  • MVP ≠ crappy product: Minimum Viable Product is the minimum needed to LEARN, not the minimum you can get away with shipping. Quality still matters where it affects the test.
  • "Build" doesn't always mean code: A landing page, a spreadsheet, a manual service — anything that tests the assumption counts.
  • Pivot is not failure: Pivoting means you learned something valuable. The failure is not pivoting when the data says you should.
  • Lean Startup is for uncertainty: If you're building a well-understood product in a known market, waterfall may be fine. Lean Startup is for when you don't know what to build or for whom.
  • MVP ≠ 劣质产品：最小可行产品（MVP）是用于学习的最小产物，而非可以敷衍推出的最低标准。在影响测试结果的环节，质量仍然至关重要。
  • "构建"不一定意味着写代码：着陆页、电子表格、人工服务——任何能测试假设的方式都算。
  • 转型不是失败：转型意味着你学到了有价值的东西。真正的失败是当数据表明应该转型时却没有行动。
  • 精益创业适用于不确定性场景：如果你在已知市场中构建一款成熟的产品，瀑布式开发可能更合适。精益创业适用于你不知道该构建什么或为谁构建的情况。

References

参考资料

  • For experiment design templates, see 
    references/experiment-templates.md
  • 如需实验设计模板，请查看 
    references/experiment-templates.md