roadmap-planning

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Chinese

Build roadmaps organized by outcomes, not feature lists. A roadmap answers "what problems are we solving and in what order?" — not "what features will we ship and when?" Dates on a roadmap beyond 6 weeks are fiction. Treat them that way.

创建以成果为核心的路线图，而非功能列表式路线图。路线图要回答的是“我们要解决哪些问题，优先级如何？”——而非“我们将发布哪些功能，何时发布？”。路线图中超过6周的日期都是不切实际的，应以此态度对待。

Now / Next / Later

Three time horizons, decreasing in certainty:

三个时间维度，确定性依次降低：

Now (Committed — this cycle)

Now（已承诺——当前周期）

Currently in progress or about to start
Fully shaped: problem defined, solution scoped, appetite set
Team assigned, expected to ship this cycle
1-3 items maximum

正在进行中或即将启动
已完全成型：问题已明确，解决方案范围已确定，资源分配已明确
已分配团队，预计在当前周期内交付
最多1-3项内容

Next (Shaped — next 1-2 cycles)

Next（已成型——未来1-2个周期）

Problem validated, solution partially shaped
Not yet assigned to a team
May change based on what we learn from "Now" items
3-5 items maximum

问题已验证，解决方案已初步成型
尚未分配团队
可能会根据“Now”阶段的成果进行调整
最多3-5项内容

Later (Raw — ideas worth exploring)

Later（待孵化——值得探索的想法）

Problems we believe are real but haven't validated
No solution shaped yet
Will be promoted to "Next" when evidence supports it, or killed
No limit, but prune quarterly

我们认为真实存在但尚未验证的问题
尚未形成解决方案
当有足够证据支持时，将升级为“Next”阶段，否则将被淘汰
数量无上限，但需每季度进行清理

Roadmap Items Are Outcomes, Not Features

路线图条目是成果，而非功能

Each roadmap item is framed as a problem to solve or an outcome to achieve:

Bad (feature-list roadmap):

Build team collaboration features
Add CSV export
Redesign settings page

Good (outcome-based roadmap):

Reduce time-to-first-value for team signups from 15 min to under 5 min
Enable users to get their data out without contacting support
Reduce settings-related support tickets by 50%

The solution emerges during shaping, not during roadmap planning.

每个路线图条目都应围绕要解决的问题或要达成的成果来构建：

错误示例（功能列表式路线图）：

开发团队协作功能
添加CSV导出功能
重新设计设置页面

正确示例（基于成果的路线图）：

将团队注册的首次价值获取时间从15分钟缩短至5分钟以内
让用户无需联系支持即可导出数据
将与设置相关的支持工单减少50%

解决方案会在规划成型阶段逐步明确，而非在路线图规划阶段就确定。

Shape Up Cycle Planning

Shape Up 周期规划

For teams using Shape Up cycles:

Betting table: Leadership reviews shaped pitches and bets on what to build next cycle. Not everything gets picked.
Cool-down: 1-2 weeks between cycles for bug fixes, exploration, and shaping future work.
No carry-over: Work that doesn't ship in a cycle is not automatically carried over. It must be re-pitched.

对于采用Shape Up周期的团队：

投注评审（Betting table）：领导层评审已成型的方案提案，选定下一个周期要开发的内容。并非所有提案都会被选中。
冷却期（Cool-down）：周期之间预留1-2周时间，用于修复漏洞、探索新方向和规划未来工作。
无自动延续：未在当前周期交付的工作不会自动延续到下一个周期，必须重新提案。

Presenting the Roadmap

路线图的展示

Keep it to one page or one screen. If your roadmap needs scrolling, it's too detailed.

Format as a simple table:

Horizon	Outcome	Evidence	Status
Now	Reduce onboarding drop-off to under 30%	5 interviews, 60% current drop-off	In progress, week 2/3
Next	Enable self-serve data export	12 support tickets/month	Shaped, needs team
Later	Multi-workspace support	3 enterprise prospects requested	Unvalidated

将路线图控制在一页或一屏内。如果需要滚动查看，说明内容过于详细。

采用简单表格格式：

时间维度	成果	依据	状态
Now	将新用户流失率降至30%以下	5次用户访谈，当前流失率为60%	进行中，第2/3周
Next	支持自助式数据导出	每月收到12相关支持工单	已成型，待分配团队
Later	多工作区支持	3个企业客户提出需求	未验证

Guidelines

指导原则

CRITICAL: NEVER put dates on roadmap items beyond 6 weeks. You don't know and pretending you do erodes trust.
NEVER build a feature-list roadmap. Organize by outcomes and problems.
ALWAYS limit "Now" to 1-3 items. If you're working on 8 things, you're finishing none of them.
NEVER let "Later" items skip to "Now" without shaping and evidence.
ALWAYS prune "Later" quarterly. Kill items that haven't gained evidence in 3 months.
ALWAYS review and update the roadmap at the start of every cycle, not just quarterly.
NEVER present a roadmap without evidence for each item. A roadmap without evidence is a wish list.

Built on Shape Up (Basecamp) cycle planning and the Now/Next/Later framework. Skills from productskills.

关键：绝不要在路线图中为超过6周的条目设置固定日期。你无法预知未来，假装知道会损害信任。
绝不要创建功能列表式路线图。始终围绕成果和问题进行组织。
始终将“Now”阶段的条目限制在1-3项。如果同时推进8项工作，最终可能一项都完不成。
绝不要让“Later”阶段的条目跳过成型和验证直接进入“Now”阶段。
始终每季度清理“Later”阶段的条目。淘汰3个月内未获得足够证据支持的内容。
始终在每个周期开始时回顾并更新路线图，而非仅在季度末进行。
绝不要展示没有依据的路线图。没有依据的路线图只是愿望清单。

基于Basecamp的Shape Up周期规划方法和Now/Next/Later框架构建。技能源自productskills。