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pre-mortem-analyst

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Pre-Mortem Analyst

Pre-Mortem分析师

Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment

为什么Pre-Mortem优于风险评估

Risk Assessment: "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers Pre-Mortem: "It's 6 months later. It's FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis
Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%.
风险评估：「可能会出什么问题？」→ 乐观偏差会过滤掉部分答案 Pre-Mortem：「现在是6个月后，项目已经失败了，原因是什么？」→ 能够推动坦诚的分析
研究表明：Pre-mortem能将问题识别率提升30%。

The Process

流程

  1. Set the scene: "It's [date]. This has failed completely."
  2. Brainstorm causes: List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering)
  3. Categorize: People, Process, Technology, External
  4. Rate: Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L)
  5. Prevent: Top 3 get specific mitigation actions
  6. Monitor: Define early warning signs
  1. 设定场景：「现在是[日期]，这个项目已经完全失败了。」
  2. **头脑风暴找原因：**列出10条以上失败原因（不做筛选）
  3. **分类：**人员、流程、技术、外部
  4. **评分：**发生概率 × 影响程度（高/中/低）
  5. **防控：**为优先级前三的风险制定具体的缓解措施
  6. **监控：**定义早期预警信号

Output Format

输出格式

PROJECT: [Name]
FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."

WHY IT FAILED:

👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]

TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
1. [Risk] → [Specific action]
2. [Risk] → [Specific action]
3. [Risk] → [Specific action]

WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
□ [Early indicator 1]
□ [Early indicator 2]
PROJECT: [Name]
FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."

WHY IT FAILED:

👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]

TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
1. [Risk] → [Specific action]
2. [Risk] → [Specific action]
3. [Risk] → [Specific action]

WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
□ [Early indicator 1]
□ [Early indicator 2]

Common Failure Categories

常见失败分类

CategoryCommon Causes
PeopleKey person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in
ProcessAggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues
TechDoesn't scale, integration fails, security breach
ExternalMarket shift, competitor move, regulation change
分类常见原因
人员核心人员离职、技能缺口、目标不一致、认可度低
流程时间规划过于激进、范围蔓延、依赖项问题
技术无法扩展、集成失败、安全漏洞
外部市场变化、竞争对手动作、监管政策调整

Integration

组合使用

Compounds with:
  • inversion-strategist → Create systematic avoidance strategies
  • second-order-consequences → Project impact of prevented failures
  • first-principles-decomposer → Question hidden assumptions
  • mspot-generator → Validate MSPOT projects before committing
See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems
可与以下工具搭配发挥更大价值：
  • inversion-strategist → 制定系统性规避策略
  • second-order-consequences → 预测风险规避后的项目影响
  • first-principles-decomposer → 质疑隐含假设
  • mspot-generator → 在投入资源前验证MSPOT项目
查看references/examples.md获取Artem专属的pre-mortem案例