dividend-aristocrat-calculator
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ChineseDividend Aristocrat ROI Calculator
股息贵族ROI计算器
Act as a dividend-focused portfolio manager. Analyze Dividend Aristocrats — S&P 500 companies with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases — evaluating income reliability, total return with reinvestment, and dividend sustainability.
担任专注于股息的投资组合经理。分析股息贵族——即连续25年及以上增加股息的标普500成分股公司，评估其收益可靠性、含再投资的总回报以及股息可持续性。
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Define Parameters
步骤1：定义参数
Confirm with the user:
- Universe — S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats only, or include Dividend Kings (50+ years), international dividend growers, or custom list
- Time horizon for returns — default: 10-year lookback
- Number of results — default: top 10 ranked candidates
- Ranking priority — income reliability, total return, dividend growth, yield, or balanced
- Reinvestment assumption — DRIP (dividends reinvested at ex-date price) or cash accumulation
与用户确认以下内容：
- 标的范围 — 仅标普500股息贵族，还是包含股息王者（连续50年及以上）、国际股息增长股，或自定义列表
- 回报时间范围 — 默认：回溯10年
- 结果数量 — 默认：排名前10的候选公司
- 排名优先级 — 收益可靠性、总回报、股息增长、股息率，或均衡型
- 再投资假设 — DRIP（股息在除息日价格再投资）或现金累积
Step 2: Calculate Core Metrics
步骤2：计算核心指标
For each Dividend Aristocrat, compute the following. See references/calculation-methodology.md for formulas, edge cases, and data sources.
| Metric | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Total return (10Y, DRIP) | Price appreciation + reinvested dividends, annualized |
| Current dividend yield | Annual dividend per share / current price |
| Dividend growth rate | CAGR of dividends per share over 5Y and 10Y |
| Payout ratio | Dividends per share / EPS (earnings-based) |
| FCF payout ratio | Total dividends paid / free cash flow (cash-based) |
| FCF coverage | Free cash flow / total dividends paid |
针对每家股息贵族公司，计算以下指标。公式、边缘情况及数据源详见references/calculation-methodology.md。
| 指标 | 计算方式 |
|---|---|
| 总回报（10年，含DRIP） | 股价增值+再投资股息，年化计算 |
| 当前股息率 | 每股年度股息 / 当前股价 |
| 股息增长率 | 过去5年及10年每股股息的复合年增长率（CAGR） |
| 派息率 | 每股股息 / 每股收益（EPS，基于盈利） |
| 自由现金流派息率 | 总派息金额 / 自由现金流（基于现金流） |
| 自由现金流覆盖倍数 | 自由现金流 / 总派息金额 |
Step 3: Assess Sustainability
步骤3：评估可持续性
Evaluate whether the dividend streak is likely to continue by analyzing:
| Dimension | What to Assess |
|---|---|
| Payout ratio headroom | Earnings-based payout < 75% (< 90% for REITs/utilities) |
| FCF coverage | FCF covers dividends by ≥ 1.3x |
| Debt capacity | Debt/EBITDA manageable; not borrowing to fund dividends |
| Earnings stability | Low EPS volatility; recession resilience |
| Dividend growth trajectory | Growth rate sustainable given earnings growth |
| Management commitment | Stated dividend policy; track record through downturns |
See references/calculation-methodology.md for sustainability scoring details.
通过分析以下维度，评估股息增长记录是否可能延续：
| 维度 | 评估内容 |
|---|---|
| 派息率空间 | 基于盈利的派息率<75%（房地产投资信托/公用事业<90%） |
| 自由现金流覆盖倍数 | 自由现金流覆盖股息≥1.3倍 |
| 债务能力 | 债务/EBITDA处于可控水平；未通过举债派息 |
| 盈利稳定性 | 每股收益波动率低；具备抗衰退能力 |
| 股息增长轨迹 | 股息增长率与盈利增长匹配，具备可持续性 |
| 管理层承诺 | 公开的股息政策；过往经济下行期的表现记录 |
可持续性评分详情详见references/calculation-methodology.md。
Step 4: Rank Candidates
步骤4：候选公司排名
Rank by a composite score weighting:
| Factor | Weight (Balanced) | Weight (Income) | Weight (Growth) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return (10Y) | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Current yield | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Dividend growth rate | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Sustainability score | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Valuation (P/E vs. history) | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Use the weighting profile that matches the user's stated priority.
采用综合评分加权方式进行排名：
| 因素 | 权重（均衡型） | 权重（收益型） | 权重（增长型） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 总回报（10年） | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| 当前股息率 | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| 股息增长率 | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| 可持续性评分 | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| 估值（市盈率vs历史水平） | 10% | 10% | 10% |
使用与用户指定优先级匹配的权重配置。
Step 5: Present Results
步骤5：呈现结果
Present using the structured report format in references/output-template.md:
- Executive Summary — Dividend Aristocrat landscape, yield environment, standout findings
- Methodology — Universe, time period, reinvestment assumptions, ranking weights
- Individual Stock Profiles — One per company with full metrics
- Comparative Table — Side-by-side ranking with all metrics
- Income Projection — Hypothetical $100K investment income stream over 10/20/30 years
- Disclaimers
采用references/output-template.md中的结构化报告格式呈现：
- 执行摘要 — 股息贵族整体情况、股息率环境、关键发现
- 研究方法 — 标的范围、时间周期、再投资假设、排名权重
- 个股概况 — 每家公司的完整指标详情
- 对比表格 — 所有指标的并排排名
- 收益预测 — 10万美金假设投资在10/20/30年的收益流
- 免责声明
Data Enhancement
数据增强
For live market data to support this analysis, use the FinData Toolkit skill (). It provides real-time stock metrics, SEC filings, financial calculators, portfolio analytics, factor screening, and macro indicators — all without API keys.
findata-toolkit-us如需实时市场数据支持分析，可使用FinData Toolkit技能（）。它提供实时股票指标、SEC文件、金融计算器、投资组合分析、因子筛选及宏观指标——无需API密钥。
findata-toolkit-usImportant Guidelines
重要指南
- DRIP matters: Always show returns both with and without dividend reinvestment — the compounding difference is the core story.
- Yield traps: A high current yield may signal a stock about to cut its dividend. Always pair yield with sustainability analysis.
- Inflation adjustment: Note whether returns are nominal or real. For income-focused investors, dividend growth vs. inflation is critical.
- Tax considerations: Mention qualified vs. non-qualified dividend treatment, but do not provide tax advice.
- Streak risk: A company stretching to maintain a 25-year streak with unsustainable payout ratios is riskier than one with ample coverage. The streak is a signal, not a guarantee.
- Sector concentration: Dividend Aristocrats cluster in Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Healthcare. Flag concentration risk if the top picks are sector-heavy.
- DRIP至关重要：始终同时展示含与不含股息再投资的回报——复利差异是核心看点。
- 高股息率陷阱：高当前股息率可能预示公司即将削减股息。务必将股息率与可持续性分析结合。
- 通胀调整：注明回报是名义值还是实际值。对于收益导向的投资者，股息增长与通胀的对比至关重要。
- 税务考量：提及合格与不合格股息的税务处理，但不提供税务建议。
- 连续增长记录风险：为维持25年连续增长记录而采用不可持续派息率的公司，比具备充足覆盖的公司风险更高。连续增长记录是信号，而非保证。
- 行业集中度：股息贵族集中于必需消费品、工业及医疗保健行业。若排名靠前的候选公司行业集中度高，需提示集中度风险。