crisis-detector

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Chinese

Crisis Detector

危机检测器

Identify early warning signs of potential crises before they escalate through pattern recognition, signal monitoring, and risk assessment.

通过模式识别、信号监控和风险评估，在危机升级前识别潜在危机的早期预警信号。

When to Use This Skill

何时使用此技能

Setting up early warning systems
Assessing crisis probability
Training teams on signals
Building escalation criteria
Post-crisis prevention planning

搭建早期预警系统
评估危机发生概率
培训团队识别预警信号
制定升级标准
危机后预防规划

Methodology Foundation

方法论基础

Based on Institute for Crisis Management research and Burson crisis frameworks, combining:

Signal identification
Pattern recognition
Risk assessment matrices
Escalation protocols

基于Institute for Crisis Management（危机管理研究所）的研究和Burson危机框架，结合：

信号识别
模式识别
风险评估矩阵
升级协议

What Claude Does vs What You Decide

Claude 的职责 vs 你的决策

Claude Does	You Decide
Identifies warning signals	Risk tolerance
Assesses crisis probability	Response resources
Creates detection criteria	Escalation authority
Designs monitoring systems	Communication strategy
Suggests response triggers	Final action calls

Claude 的职责	你的决策
识别预警信号	风险容忍度
评估危机发生概率	响应资源
制定检测标准	升级权限
设计监控系统	沟通策略
建议响应触发条件	最终行动决策

Instructions

操作步骤

Step 1: Map Crisis Types

步骤1：梳理危机类型

Crisis Categories:

Category	Examples	Warning Time
Operational	Outage, product failure	Hours to days
Reputational	Executive scandal, viral complaint	Minutes to hours
Legal/Regulatory	Lawsuit, investigation	Days to weeks
Financial	Earnings miss, fraud	Hours to days
Human	Workplace incident, harassment	Hours to days
External	Natural disaster, market crash	Variable

危机类别：

类别	示例	预警时间
运营类	停机、产品故障	数小时至数天
声誉类	高管丑闻、病毒式投诉	数分钟至数小时
法律/监管类	诉讼、调查	数天至数周
财务类	收益未达标、欺诈	数小时至数天
人力类	职场事件、骚扰	数小时至数天
外部类	自然灾害、市场崩盘	不确定

Step 2: Identify Early Signals

步骤2：识别早期信号

Signal Types:

Signal Type	Examples	Monitoring
Internal	Employee complaints, support tickets	HR, Support data
Customer	Review patterns, churn spikes	CX metrics
Social	Mention volume, sentiment shift	Social tools
Media	Press inquiries, journalist interest	PR inbox
Regulatory	Compliance notices, audit findings	Legal
Financial	Payment disputes, refund requests	Finance

信号类型：

信号类型	示例	监控渠道
内部信号	员工投诉、支持工单	HR、支持数据
客户信号	评论模式、用户流失激增	CX指标
社交信号	提及量、情绪转变	社交工具
媒体信号	媒体问询、记者关注	PR收件箱
监管信号	合规通知、审计结果	法务部门
财务信号	付款纠纷、退款请求	财务部门

Step 3: Build Detection Matrix

步骤3：构建检测矩阵

Signal Strength Assessment:

Signal	Weak	Moderate	Strong	Critical
Volume spike	+25%	+50%	+100%	+300%
Sentiment shift	-10%	-20%	-30%	-50%
Media inquiries	1	2-3	4-5	6+
Support tickets	+10%	+25%	+50%	+100%
Social influencer	10K	50K	100K	500K+

信号强度评估：

信号	弱	中等	强	严重
提及量激增	+25%	+50%	+100%	+300%
情绪转变	-10%	-20%	-30%	-50%
媒体问询	1次	2-3次	4-5次	6次以上
支持工单	+10%	+25%	+50%	+100%
社交影响力	1万	5万	10万	50万以上

Step 4: Create Escalation Triggers

步骤4：制定升级触发条件

Trigger Framework:

Level	Signals Present	Action
Watch	1 moderate signal	Monitor closely
Alert	2+ moderate or 1 strong	Notify team
Warning	Multiple strong signals	Assemble team
Crisis	Any critical signal	Activate protocol

触发框架：

级别	出现的信号	行动
观察	1个中等信号	密切监控
警报	2个及以上中等信号或1个强信号	通知团队
预警	多个强信号	召集团队
危机	任何严重信号	启动应急预案

Step 5: Document and Improve

步骤5：记录与优化

Post-Detection Review:

How early did we detect?
What signals did we miss?
How accurate was assessment?
What should we add to monitoring?

检测后复盘：

我们提前多久检测到危机？
遗漏了哪些信号？
评估的准确性如何？
监控体系需要添加哪些内容？

Examples

示例

Example 1: Crisis Detection System Design

示例1：危机检测系统设计

Input:

Design a crisis detection system for:
- E-commerce company (clothing)
- 500K customers
- Active on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter
- Past issue: Shipping delays during holiday

Output:

undefined

输入：

Design a crisis detection system for:
- E-commerce company (clothing)
- 500K customers
- Active on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter
- Past issue: Shipping delays during holiday

输出：

undefined

Crisis Detection System: E-Commerce Fashion

Crisis Risk Map

Crisis Type	Probability	Impact	Priority
Shipping delays	High	High	P1
Product quality issue	Medium	High	P1
Social media backlash	Medium	High	P1
Data breach	Low	Critical	P1
Influencer controversy	Medium	Medium	P2
Supply chain disruption	Medium	High	P2
Payment fraud	Low	Medium	P3

Crisis Type	Probability	Impact	Priority
Shipping delays	High	High	P1
Product quality issue	Medium	High	P1
Social media backlash	Medium	High	P1
Data breach	Low	Critical	P1
Influencer controversy	Medium	Medium	P2
Supply chain disruption	Medium	High	P2
Payment fraud	Low	Medium	P3

Early Warning Signals

P1: Shipping Delays

Leading Indicators (3-5 days before crisis):

Signal	Source	Threshold
Carrier delay reports	Logistics API	>10% delayed
Warehouse backlog	WMS data	>24hr processing
Weather events	News/weather	Storm in hub
"Where's my order" tickets	Support	+50% daily

Lagging Indicators (crisis starting):

Signal	Source	Threshold
Social mentions	Social listening	"shipping" +100%
Review mentions	Trustpilot/G2	Shipping 3/5 stars
Refund requests	Payment system	+30%
Chargeback rate	Payment processor	>1%

Leading Indicators (3-5 days before crisis):

Signal	Source	Threshold
Carrier delay reports	Logistics API	>10% delayed
Warehouse backlog	WMS data	>24hr processing
Weather events	News/weather	Storm in hub
"Where's my order" tickets	Support	+50% daily

Lagging Indicators (crisis starting):

Signal	Source	Threshold
Social mentions	Social listening	"shipping" +100%
Review mentions	Trustpilot/G2	Shipping 3/5 stars
Refund requests	Payment system	+30%
Chargeback rate	Payment processor	>1%

P1: Product Quality Issue

Leading Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Return rate spike	Returns data	>10% on SKU
Quality complaints	Support tickets	3+ same issue
Photo complaints	Social	"damaged", "wrong color"
Batch-specific issues	QC data	Same lot number

Lagging Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Viral unboxing	TikTok/Instagram	>10K views negative
Review bomb	Product pages	Multiple 1-stars
Media inquiry	PR inbox	Journalist question

Leading Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Return rate spike	Returns data	>10% on SKU
Quality complaints	Support tickets	3+ same issue
Photo complaints	Social	"damaged", "wrong color"
Batch-specific issues	QC data	Same lot number

Lagging Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Viral unboxing	TikTok/Instagram	>10K views negative
Review bomb	Product pages	Multiple 1-stars
Media inquiry	PR inbox	Journalist question

P1: Social Media Backlash

Leading Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Sentiment shift	Social tools	-20% in 24hr
Controversial post	Your social	Negative comments >10%
Influencer complaint	Social	>50K follower post
Screenshot spreading	Twitter/Reddit	Same image 5+ times

Lagging Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Viral negative	Any platform	>50K engagements
Hashtag trending	Twitter	Brand + negative
Media pickup	News sites	Article published
Competitor amplification	Social	Competitor sharing

Leading Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Sentiment shift	Social tools	-20% in 24hr
Controversial post	Your social	Negative comments >10%
Influencer complaint	Social	>50K follower post
Screenshot spreading	Twitter/Reddit	Same image 5+ times

Lagging Indicators:

Signal	Source	Threshold
Viral negative	Any platform	>50K engagements
Hashtag trending	Twitter	Brand + negative
Media pickup	News sites	Article published
Competitor amplification	Social	Competitor sharing

Detection Dashboard

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  CRISIS DETECTION DASHBOARD                    🟢 NORMAL │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                          │
│  SHIPPING STATUS                              🟢 Normal  │
│  ├─ Carrier delays: 3% (threshold: 10%)                 │
│  ├─ Backlog: 4 hours (threshold: 24hr)                  │
│  └─ "Where's my order": 45 (baseline: 50)               │
│                                                          │
│  PRODUCT QUALITY                              🟢 Normal  │
│  ├─ Return rate: 5.2% (threshold: 10%)                  │
│  ├─ Quality tickets: 2 (threshold: 3+ same)             │
│  └─ Photo complaints: 1 (threshold: 5)                  │
│                                                          │
│  SOCIAL SENTIMENT                             🟡 Watch   │
│  ├─ Sentiment: -15% (threshold: -20%)                   │
│  ├─ Volume: +40% (threshold: +50%)                      │
│  └─ Influencer: None flagged                            │
│                                                          │
│  SECURITY                                     🟢 Normal  │
│  ├─ Login anomalies: Normal                             │
│  └─ Payment fraud: 0.3%                                 │
│                                                          │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  CRISIS DETECTION DASHBOARD                    🟢 NORMAL │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                          │
│  SHIPPING STATUS                              🟢 Normal  │
│  ├─ Carrier delays: 3% (threshold: 10%)                 │
│  ├─ Backlog: 4 hours (threshold: 24hr)                  │
│  └─ "Where's my order": 45 (baseline: 50)               │
│                                                          │
│  PRODUCT QUALITY                              🟢 Normal  │
│  ├─ Return rate: 5.2% (threshold: 10%)                  │
│  ├─ Quality tickets: 2 (threshold: 3+ same)             │
│  └─ Photo complaints: 1 (threshold: 5)                  │
│                                                          │
│  SOCIAL SENTIMENT                             🟡 Watch   │
│  ├─ Sentiment: -15% (threshold: -20%)                   │
│  ├─ Volume: +40% (threshold: +50%)                      │
│  └─ Influencer: None flagged                            │
│                                                          │
│  SECURITY                                     🟢 Normal  │
│  ├─ Login anomalies: Normal                             │
│  └─ Payment fraud: 0.3%                                 │
│                                                          │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Escalation Matrix

Level	Criteria	Notification	Response
🟢 Normal	All metrics in range	None	Standard ops
🟡 Watch	1 metric at threshold	Slack alert	Increased monitoring
🟠 Alert	2+ metrics or 1 exceeded	Team notification	Standby team
🔴 Crisis	Critical threshold breached	All-hands alert	Activate protocol

Level	Criteria	Notification	Response
🟢 Normal	All metrics in range	None	Standard ops
🟡 Watch	1 metric at threshold	Slack alert	Increased monitoring
🟠 Alert	2+ metrics or 1 exceeded	Team notification	Standby team
🔴 Crisis	Critical threshold breached	All-hands alert	Activate protocol

Alert Routing

Signal Type	Primary	Backup	Escalation
Shipping	Operations	COO	CEO
Product quality	Product	VP Ops	CEO
Social media	Marketing	CMO	CEO
Security	IT	CTO	CEO + Legal
Legal/PR	Legal	CEO	Board

Signal Type	Primary	Backup	Escalation
Shipping	Operations	COO	CEO
Product quality	Product	VP Ops	CEO
Social media	Marketing	CMO	CEO
Security	IT	CTO	CEO + Legal
Legal/PR	Legal	CEO	Board

Holiday Season Adjustments

During high-volume periods (Nov 15 - Dec 31):

Metric	Normal Threshold	Holiday Threshold
Carrier delays	10%	15%
Support volume	+50%	+100%
Social volume	+50%	+75%
Response time	4 hours	8 hours

Rationale: Higher baseline expected; adjust to avoid false alerts while maintaining genuine crisis detection.

undefined

During high-volume periods (Nov 15 - Dec 31):

Metric	Normal Threshold	Holiday Threshold
Carrier delays	10%	15%
Support volume	+50%	+100%
Social volume	+50%	+75%
Response time	4 hours	8 hours

Rationale: Higher baseline expected; adjust to avoid false alerts while maintaining genuine crisis detection.

undefined

Example 2: Real-Time Crisis Assessment

示例2：实时危机评估

Input:

Assess this situation:
- Support tickets up 80% in 2 hours
- Twitter mentions up 150%
- Hashtag #[Brand]Scam trending locally
- 3 refund requests mentioning "charged twice"
- No known system issues

Output:

undefined

输入：

Assess this situation:
- Support tickets up 80% in 2 hours
- Twitter mentions up 150%
- Hashtag #[Brand]Scam trending locally
- 3 refund requests mentioning "charged twice"
- No known system issues

输出：

undefined

Crisis Assessment: Potential Payment Issue

Alert Level: 🔴 CRISIS

Signal Analysis

Signal	Value	Normal	Status
Support spike	+80%	<25%	CRITICAL
Social spike	+150%	<50%	CRITICAL
Trending hashtag	Yes	No	CRITICAL
Duplicate charge reports	3	0	CONCERNING

Signal	Value	Normal	Status
Support spike	+80%	<25%	CRITICAL
Social spike	+150%	<50%	CRITICAL
Trending hashtag	Yes	No	CRITICAL
Duplicate charge reports	3	0	CONCERNING

Probable Cause

Most likely: Payment processing error

Evidence:

Multiple "charged twice" complaints
No known system issues rules out outage
Sudden spike suggests batch problem
#Scam hashtag = customers think fraud

Most likely: Payment processing error

Evidence:

Multiple "charged twice" complaints
No known system issues rules out outage
Sudden spike suggests batch problem
#Scam hashtag = customers think fraud

Immediate Actions

Priority	Action	Owner	Timeline
1	Check payment processor logs	Engineering	NOW
2	Identify affected transactions	Finance	30 min
3	Prepare holding statement	Comms	15 min
4	Alert customer service team	CX Lead	NOW
5	Monitor hashtag spread	Social	Ongoing

Priority	Action	Owner	Timeline
1	Check payment processor logs	Engineering	NOW
2	Identify affected transactions	Finance	30 min
3	Prepare holding statement	Comms	15 min
4	Alert customer service team	CX Lead	NOW
5	Monitor hashtag spread	Social	Ongoing

Holding Statement (Draft)

We're aware some customers may have experienced duplicate
charges. Our team is investigating urgently. If you've been
affected, please DM us or email [support] - we'll make this
right immediately.

Updates to follow shortly.

We're aware some customers may have experienced duplicate
charges. Our team is investigating urgently. If you've been
affected, please DM us or email [support] - we'll make this
right immediately.

Updates to follow shortly.

Escalation Path

Now: CTO + CFO + CMO notified +30 min: CEO briefing if not resolved +1 hour: External statement if ongoing

Crisis Trajectory

If unaddressed (next 2-4 hours):

Hashtag goes national
Media inquiries begin
Trust pilot review bomb
Social influencers amplify

If addressed quickly (next 1-2 hours):

Contain to affected customers
Flip narrative to "responsive company"
Prevent media escalation
Build goodwill through fast resolution

If unaddressed (next 2-4 hours):

Hashtag goes national
Media inquiries begin
Trust pilot review bomb
Social influencers amplify

If addressed quickly (next 1-2 hours):

Contain to affected customers
Flip narrative to "responsive company"
Prevent media escalation
Build goodwill through fast resolution

Resolution Checklist

Skill Boundaries

技能边界

What This Skill Does Well

此技能擅长的领域

Identifying early warning signals
Creating detection frameworks
Assessing crisis probability
Designing escalation systems

识别早期预警信号
创建检测框架
评估危机发生概率
设计升级系统

What This Skill Cannot Do

此技能无法完成的事项

Access your actual systems
Monitor in real-time
Make response decisions
Know your specific thresholds

访问你的实际系统
实时监控
做出响应决策
了解你的特定阈值

Iteration Guide

迭代指南

Follow-up Prompts:

"Design detection for [specific crisis type]"
"Create escalation protocol for [scenario]"
"What signals should we add for [risk]?"
"How do we prevent [past crisis] from recurring?"

后续提示示例：

"为[特定危机类型]设计检测方案"
"为[场景]制定升级协议"
"针对[风险]我们应添加哪些信号？"
"如何防止[过往危机]再次发生？"

References

参考资料

Institute for Crisis Management
Burson Crisis Playbook
Harvard Business Review Crisis Research
Edelman Trust Barometer

Institute for Crisis Management
Burson Crisis Playbook
Harvard Business Review Crisis Research
Edelman Trust Barometer

Related Skills

Skill Metadata

技能元数据

Domain: Crisis
Complexity: Intermediate-Advanced
Mode: centaur
Time to Value: 2-4 hours for system design
Prerequisites: Access to metrics, stakeholder alignment

领域: 危机管理
复杂度: 中高级
模式: centaur
价值实现时间: 系统设计需2-4小时
前置条件: 可访问指标数据、利益相关方达成共识

crisis-detector

Original

Translation

Crisis Detector

危机检测器

When to Use This Skill

何时使用此技能

Methodology Foundation

方法论基础

What Claude Does vs What You Decide

Claude 的职责 vs 你的决策

Instructions

操作步骤

Step 1: Map Crisis Types

步骤1：梳理危机类型

Step 2: Identify Early Signals

步骤2：识别早期信号

Step 3: Build Detection Matrix

步骤3：构建检测矩阵

Step 4: Create Escalation Triggers

步骤4：制定升级触发条件

Step 5: Document and Improve

步骤5：记录与优化

Examples

示例

Example 1: Crisis Detection System Design

示例1：危机检测系统设计

Crisis Detection System: E-Commerce Fashion

Crisis Detection System: E-Commerce Fashion

Crisis Risk Map

Crisis Risk Map

Early Warning Signals

Early Warning Signals

P1: Shipping Delays

P1: Shipping Delays

P1: Product Quality Issue

P1: Product Quality Issue

P1: Social Media Backlash

P1: Social Media Backlash

Detection Dashboard

Detection Dashboard

Escalation Matrix

Escalation Matrix

Alert Routing

Alert Routing

Holiday Season Adjustments

Holiday Season Adjustments

Example 2: Real-Time Crisis Assessment

示例2：实时危机评估

Crisis Assessment: Potential Payment Issue

Crisis Assessment: Potential Payment Issue

Alert Level: 🔴 CRISIS

Alert Level: 🔴 CRISIS

Signal Analysis

Signal Analysis

Probable Cause

Probable Cause

Immediate Actions

Immediate Actions

Holding Statement (Draft)

Holding Statement (Draft)

Escalation Path

Escalation Path

Crisis Trajectory

Crisis Trajectory

Resolution Checklist

Resolution Checklist

Skill Boundaries

技能边界

What This Skill Does Well

此技能擅长的领域

What This Skill Cannot Do

此技能无法完成的事项

Iteration Guide

迭代指南

References

参考资料

Related Skills

相关技能

Skill Metadata