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Forecast Scenario Modeling

预测场景建模

Create multiple revenue scenarios with variable assumptions to support strategic planning, board presentations, and risk management.
创建包含可变假设的多套收入场景，为战略规划、董事会汇报及风险管理提供支持。

When to Use This Skill

何时使用该Skill

  • Annual and quarterly planning
  • Board meeting preparations
  • Fundraising projections
  • Risk assessment and contingency planning
  • Evaluating strategic initiatives
  • 年度与季度规划
  • 董事会会议筹备
  • 融资预测
  • 风险评估与应急规划
  • 战略举措评估

Methodology Foundation

方法论基础

Based on McKinsey Scenario Planning and FP&A best practices, combining:
  • Base/Bull/Bear case modeling
  • Sensitivity analysis (variable impact)
  • Monte Carlo probability distributions
  • Driver-based forecasting
基于McKinsey Scenario Planning和FP&A最佳实践，融合：
  • 基准/乐观/悲观场景建模
  • 敏感性分析（变量影响）
  • Monte Carlo概率分布
  • 基于驱动因素的预测

What Claude Does vs What You Decide

Claude 负责内容 vs 您的决策内容

Claude DoesYou Decide
Structures scenario frameworkAssumption values
Calculates scenario outcomesWhich scenario to plan for
Identifies key sensitivitiesRisk tolerance levels
Models variable impactsStrategic responses
Presents range of outcomesFinal forecast commitment
Claude 负责内容您的决策内容
构建场景框架假设数值
计算场景结果规划对应场景
识别关键敏感性因素风险容忍度水平
建模变量影响战略应对方案
呈现结果范围最终预测承诺

What This Skill Does

该Skill的功能

  1. Scenario definition - Base, upside, downside cases
  2. Variable modeling - Test impact of changing assumptions
  3. Sensitivity analysis - Which variables matter most
  4. Probability weighting - Expected value calculations
  5. Action planning - What to do in each scenario
  1. 场景定义 - 基准、乐观、悲观场景
  2. 变量建模 - 测试假设变化的影响
  3. 敏感性分析 - 确定关键影响变量
  4. 概率加权 - 期望值计算
  5. 行动计划 - 各场景下的应对方案

How to Use

使用方法

Model revenue scenarios for [Period]:

Current Status:
- YTD Revenue: $X
- Current Pipeline: $X
- Run Rate: $X/month

Key Variables to Model:
- Win rate: [Current: X%, Range: X-X%]
- Average deal size: [Current: $X, Range: $X-$X]
- Sales cycle: [Current: X days, Range: X-X]
- New pipeline creation: [Current: $X/month]
- Churn rate: [Current: X%]

Create best, likely, and worst case scenarios.
为[周期]建模收入场景：

当前状态：
- 年初至今收入：$X
- 当前销售管道：$X
- 月度运行率：$X/月

需建模的关键变量：
- 赢单率：[当前：X%，范围：X-X%]
- 平均交易规模：[当前：$X，范围：$X-$X]
- 销售周期：[当前：X天，范围：X-X]
- 新销售管道创建：[当前：$X/月]
- 客户流失率：[当前：X%]

创建最佳、最可能、最差场景。

Instructions

操作步骤

Step 1: Define Scenario Framework

步骤1：定义场景框架

ScenarioDefinitionProbability
Best Case (Bull)Everything goes right15-20%
Likely Case (Base)Realistic expectations50-60%
Worst Case (Bear)Major headwinds20-25%
场景定义概率
最佳场景（乐观）一切进展顺利15-20%
最可能场景（基准）符合现实预期50-60%
最差场景（悲观）面临重大阻力20-25%

Step 2: Identify Key Drivers

步骤2：识别关键驱动因素

Rank variables by revenue impact:
DriverImpactControllability
Win rateHighMedium
Pipeline volumeHighHigh
Deal sizeMediumLow
Sales cycleMediumMedium
Churn rateMediumMedium
PricingLowHigh
按收入影响程度排序变量：
驱动因素影响程度可控性
赢单率高中
销售管道规模高高
交易规模中低
销售周期中中
客户流失率中中
定价低高

Step 3: Set Variable Ranges

步骤3：设置变量范围

For each driver, define realistic bounds:
Win Rate:
- Best: 35% (team is hitting stride)
- Likely: 25% (current performance)
- Worst: 18% (market headwinds)

Pipeline:
- Best: $5M (strong marketing)
- Likely: $4M (normal cadence)
- Worst: $2.5M (budget cuts)
为每个驱动因素设定合理范围：
赢单率：
- 最佳：35%（团队状态极佳）
- 最可能：25%（当前表现）
- 最差：18%（市场阻力）

销售管道：
- 最佳：$5M（营销表现强劲）
- 最可能：$4M（常规节奏）
- 最差：$2.5M（预算削减）

Step 4: Calculate Scenarios

步骤4：计算场景结果

Revenue Formula (simplified):
Quarterly Revenue =
  (Pipeline × Win Rate) +
  (Expansion Revenue) -
  (Churn)
Apply to each scenario:
Best Case:
$5M × 35% = $1.75M new + $200K expansion - $50K churn
= $1.9M

Likely Case:
$4M × 25% = $1M new + $150K expansion - $80K churn
= $1.07M

Worst Case:
$2.5M × 18% = $450K new + $100K expansion - $120K churn
= $430K
收入公式（简化版）：
季度收入 =
  (销售管道 × 赢单率) +
  (扩展收入) -
  (客户流失)
应用到各场景：
最佳场景：
$5M × 35% = $1.75M 新收入 + $200K 扩展收入 - $50K 客户流失
= $1.9M

最可能场景：
$4M × 25% = $1M 新收入 + $150K 扩展收入 - $80K 客户流失
= $1.07M

最差场景：
$2.5M × 18% = $450K 新收入 + $100K 扩展收入 - $120K 客户流失
= $430K

Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis

步骤5：敏感性分析

Test: "What if X changes by 10%?"
Variable+10% Impact-10% ImpactSensitivity
Win Rate+$100K-$100KHigh
Pipeline+$90K-$90KHigh
Deal Size+$50K-$50KMedium
Churn-$30K+$30KMedium
测试：“如果X变化10%会怎样？”
变量+10% 影响-10% 影响敏感性
赢单率+$100K-$100K高
销售管道+$90K-$90K高
交易规模+$50K-$50K中
客户流失-$30K+$30K中

Step 6: Calculate Expected Value

步骤6：计算期望值

Expected Revenue =
  (Best × Probability) +
  (Likely × Probability) +
  (Worst × Probability)

= ($1.9M × 20%) + ($1.07M × 55%) + ($430K × 25%)
= $380K + $589K + $108K
= $1.077M
预期收入 =
  (最佳场景 × 概率) +
  (最可能场景 × 概率) +
  (最差场景 × 概率)

= ($1.9M × 20%) + ($1.07M × 55%) + ($430K × 25%)
= $380K + $589K + $108K
= $1.077M

Examples

示例

Example 1: Quarterly Forecast Scenarios

示例1：季度预测场景

Input:
Model Q2 scenarios:

Current Status:
- Q1 Revenue: $850K
- Q2 Pipeline: $4.2M
- Monthly run rate: $280K

Variables:
- Win rate: Current 24%, Range 18-32%
- Avg deal: Current $45K, Range $38K-$55K
- New monthly pipeline: Current $800K, Range $500K-$1.2M
- Monthly churn: Current $25K, Range $15K-$40K
- Expansion: Current $50K/month, Range $30K-$80K
Output:
undefined
输入：
建模Q2场景：

当前状态：
- Q1收入：$850K
- Q2销售管道：$4.2M
- 月度运行率：$280K

变量：
- 赢单率：当前24%，范围18-32%
- 平均交易规模：当前$45K，范围$38K-$55K
- 月度新销售管道：当前$800K，范围$500K-$1.2M
- 月度客户流失：当前$25K，范围$15K-$40K
- 扩展收入：当前$50K/月，范围$30K-$80K
输出：
undefined

Q2 Revenue Scenario Model

Q2收入场景模型

Scenario Definitions

场景定义

ScenarioProbabilityDescription
🐂 Bull20%Strong execution, market tailwinds
📊 Base55%Continue current trajectory
🐻 Bear25%Market slowdown, execution challenges
场景概率描述
🐂 乐观20%执行表现强劲，市场顺风
📊 基准55%维持当前发展轨迹
🐻 悲观25%市场放缓，执行面临挑战

Variable Assumptions

变量假设

VariableBearBaseBull
Starting Pipeline$4.2M$4.2M$4.2M
Win Rate18%24%32%
Avg Deal Size$38K$45K$55K
New Pipeline/mo$500K$800K$1.2M
Monthly Churn$40K$25K$15K
Expansion/mo$30K$50K$80K
变量悲观基准乐观
初始销售管道$4.2M$4.2M$4.2M
赢单率18%24%32%
平均交易规模$38K$45K$55K
月度新销售管道$500K$800K$1.2M
月度客户流失$40K$25K$15K
月度扩展收入$30K$50K$80K

Q2 Revenue Calculations

Q2收入计算

🐂 Bull Case: $1.42M

🐂 乐观场景：$1.42M

Starting Pipeline Revenue:
$4.2M × 32% = $1.34M

Adjustment for deal size:
$1.34M × ($55K/$45K) = $1.64M effective

New Pipeline Added (Q2):
$1.2M × 3 months × 32% × 50% (partial close) = $576K

Expansion:
$80K × 3 = $240K

Churn:
-$15K × 3 = -$45K

Total Bull: $1.64M (existing) + $576K (new) + $240K (exp) - $45K (churn)
Weighted at Q2 stage: $1.42M
初始销售管道收入：
$4.2M × 32% = $1.34M

交易规模调整：
$1.34M × ($55K/$45K) = $1.64M 有效收入

Q2新增销售管道：
$1.2M × 3个月 × 32% × 50%（部分成交）= $576K

扩展收入：
$80K × 3 = $240K

客户流失：
-$15K × 3 = -$45K

乐观场景总收入：$1.64M（现有） + $576K（新增） + $240K（扩展） - $45K（流失）
按Q2阶段加权后：$1.42M

📊 Base Case: $980K

📊 基准场景：$980K

Starting Pipeline Revenue:
$4.2M × 24% = $1.01M

New Pipeline (partial close):
$800K × 3 × 24% × 50% = $288K

Expansion: $150K
Churn: -$75K

Total Base: $1.01M × 0.9 (timing) + $150K - $75K
= $980K
初始销售管道收入：
$4.2M × 24% = $1.01M

新增销售管道（部分成交）：
$800K × 3 × 24% × 50% = $288K

扩展收入：$150K
客户流失：-$75K

基准场景总收入：$1.01M × 0.9（时间调整） + $150K - $75K
= $980K

🐻 Bear Case: $580K

🐻 悲观场景：$580K

Starting Pipeline Revenue:
$4.2M × 18% = $756K × 0.85 (pushed deals)
= $643K

New Pipeline: $500K × 3 × 18% × 40% = $108K
Expansion: $90K
Churn: -$120K

Total Bear: $580K
初始销售管道收入：
$4.2M × 18% = $756K × 0.85（延迟成交）
= $643K

新增销售管道：$500K × 3 × 18% × 40% = $108K
扩展收入：$90K
客户流失：-$120K

悲观场景总收入：$580K

Scenario Summary

场景汇总

ScenarioRevenuevs Q1Growth
🐂 Bull$1.42M+$570K+67%
📊 Base$980K+$130K+15%
🐻 Bear$580K-$270K-32%
场景收入与Q1对比增长率
🐂 乐观$1.42M+$570K+67%
📊 基准$980K+$130K+15%
🐻 悲观$580K-$270K-32%

Expected Value

期望值

E(Revenue) = ($1.42M × 0.20) + ($980K × 0.55) + ($580K × 0.25)
           = $284K + $539K + $145K
           = $968K
Recommended Forecast: $950K - $1.0M
E(收入) = ($1.42M × 0.20) + ($980K × 0.55) + ($580K × 0.25)
           = $284K + $539K + $145K
           = $968K
推荐预测值：$950K - $1.0M

Sensitivity Analysis

敏感性分析

If This Changes...Revenue Impact
Win rate +5%+$210K
Win rate -5%-$210K
Pipeline +$500K+$120K
Deal size +$5K+$80K
Churn +$10K/mo-$30K
Highest Sensitivity: Win rate (focus on deal execution)
若该变量变化...收入影响
赢单率+5%+$210K
赢单率-5%-$210K
销售管道+$500K+$120K
交易规模+$5K+$80K
客户流失+$10K/月-$30K
最高敏感性：赢单率（聚焦交易执行）

Scenario Action Plans

场景行动计划

If Trending Bull:
  • Accelerate hiring plan
  • Increase marketing spend
  • Prepare for capacity constraints
If Trending Base:
  • Stay the course
  • Focus on execution
  • Build pipeline for Q3
If Trending Bear:
  • Tighten expense controls
  • Extend runway calculations
  • Double down on existing customers
  • Consider discounting to close deals
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若趋向乐观场景：
  • 加速招聘计划
  • 增加营销投入
  • 准备应对产能约束
若趋向基准场景：
  • 维持现有节奏
  • 聚焦执行
  • 为Q3构建销售管道
若趋向悲观场景：
  • 收紧费用控制
  • 延长现金流 runway 计算
  • 深耕现有客户
  • 考虑通过折扣促进成交
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Example 2: Annual Planning Scenarios

示例2：年度规划场景

Input:
Model 2026 annual scenarios for board:

2025 Results:
- Revenue: $4.2M
- Customers: 85
- ARR Growth: 45%
- NRR: 110%

2026 Planning Variables:
- New customer target: 40-80 new customers
- ACV range: $40K-$60K
- NRR range: 105%-120%
- Churn range: 5%-12%
Output:
undefined
输入：
为董事会建模2026年度场景：

2025年业绩：
- 收入：$4.2M
- 客户数：85
- ARR增长率：45%
- NRR：110%

2026年规划变量：
- 新客户目标：40-80个
- ACV范围：$40K-$60K
- NRR范围：105%-120%
- 客户流失率范围：5%-12%
输出：
undefined

2026 Annual Revenue Scenarios

2026年度收入场景

For Board Review

供董事会审阅

Scenario Summary

场景汇总

MetricBearBaseBull
New Customers406080
New ACV$40K$50K$60K
New ARR$1.6M$3.0M$4.8M
NRR105%112%120%
Existing Base$4.41M$4.70M$5.04M
Total ARR$6.0M$7.7M$9.8M
Growth43%83%133%
指标悲观基准乐观
新客户数406080
新ACV$40K$50K$60K
新ARR$1.6M$3.0M$4.8M
NRR105%112%120%
现有客户收入$4.41M$4.70M$5.04M
总ARR$6.0M$7.7M$9.8M
增长率43%83%133%

Detailed Calculations

详细计算

🐻 Bear Case: $6.0M ARR (+43%)

🐻 悲观场景：$6.0M ARR（+43%）

Assumptions:
  • Conservative new sales (40 customers)
  • Lower ACV ($40K avg)
  • NRR dips (105%)
  • Higher churn (10%)
Existing Customer Base:
$4.2M × 105% NRR = $4.41M

New Customer Revenue:
40 customers × $40K = $1.6M

Total: $6.0M
When This Happens:
  • Market downturn
  • Sales execution issues
  • Product-market fit challenges
  • Key competitor gains ground
假设：
  • 保守的新销售业绩（40个客户）
  • 较低的ACV（平均$40K）
  • NRR下降（105%）
  • 较高的客户流失率（10%）
现有客户收入：
$4.2M × 105% NRR = $4.41M

新客户收入：
40个客户 × $40K = $1.6M

总收入：$6.0M
该场景出现的情况：
  • 市场低迷
  • 销售执行问题
  • 产品市场契合度挑战
  • 主要竞争对手抢占市场

📊 Base Case: $7.7M ARR (+83%)

📊 基准场景：$7.7M ARR（+83%）

Assumptions:
  • Target new sales (60 customers)
  • Target ACV ($50K)
  • Maintain NRR (112%)
  • Normal churn (7%)
Existing Customer Base:
$4.2M × 112% NRR = $4.70M

New Customer Revenue:
60 customers × $50K = $3.0M

Total: $7.7M
This Is Likely If:
  • Execute at current pace
  • Market conditions stable
  • Product roadmap delivers
  • Team retention healthy
假设：
  • 达到新销售目标（60个客户）
  • 达到ACV目标（$50K）
  • 维持NRR（112%）
  • 常规客户流失率（7%）
现有客户收入：
$4.2M × 112% NRR = $4.70M

新客户收入：
60个客户 × $50K = $3.0M

总收入：$7.7M
该场景可能出现的情况：
  • 按当前节奏执行
  • 市场环境稳定
  • 产品路线图顺利交付
  • 团队留存率良好

🐂 Bull Case: $9.8M ARR (+133%)

🐂 乐观场景：$9.8M ARR（+133%）

Assumptions:
  • Exceed targets (80 customers)
  • Premium ACV ($60K)
  • Strong NRR (120%)
  • Low churn (5%)
Existing Customer Base:
$4.2M × 120% NRR = $5.04M

New Customer Revenue:
80 customers × $60K = $4.8M

Total: $9.8M
Required For This:
  • Strong product releases
  • Successful enterprise push
  • Favorable market timing
  • Key hires perform
假设：
  • 超额完成目标（80个客户）
  • 高端ACV（$60K）
  • 强劲的NRR（120%）
  • 低客户流失率（5%）
现有客户收入：
$4.2M × 120% NRR = $5.04M

新客户收入：
80个客户 × $60K = $4.8M

总收入：$9.8M
实现该场景的条件：
  • 强劲的产品发布
  • 成功拓展企业客户
  • 有利的市场时机
  • 核心员工表现出色

Expected Value & Recommendation

期望值与建议

E(ARR) = ($6.0M × 0.20) + ($7.7M × 0.55) + ($9.8M × 0.25)
       = $1.2M + $4.24M + $2.45M
       = $7.89M
E(ARR) = ($6.0M × 0.20) + ($7.7M × 0.55) + ($9.8M × 0.25)
       = $1.2M + $4.24M + $2.45M
       = $7.89M

Board Recommendation

董事会建议

Target: $7.5M ARR (+79% growth)
MetricTargetConfidence
New Customers55-60Medium-High
New ARR$2.75MMedium
NRR110%+High
Total ARR$7.5MMedium
目标：$7.5M ARR（+79%增长率）
指标目标置信度
新客户数55-60中高
新ARR$2.75M中
NRR110%+高
总ARR$7.5M中

Key Risks & Mitigations

关键风险与缓解措施

RiskImpactMitigation
Sales hiring delays-$1MRecruit pipeline now
Enterprise deals push-$800KParallel SMB motion
Key customer churn-$500KCSM investment
Competitor pricing-$600KValue selling training
风险影响缓解措施
销售招聘延迟-$1M立即建立招聘管道
企业客户拓展受阻-$800K同步推进SMB业务
核心客户流失-$500K加大CSM投入
竞争对手定价冲击-$600K开展价值销售培训

Monthly Checkpoints

月度检查点

MonthBearBaseBull
Q1 End$4.8M$5.2M$5.8M
Q2 End$5.3M$6.2M$7.4M
Q3 End$5.6M$7.0M$8.6M
Q4 End$6.0M$7.7M$9.8M
Track monthly and adjust Q3 if trending to Bear.
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月份悲观基准乐观
Q1末$4.8M$5.2M$5.8M
Q2末$5.3M$6.2M$7.4M
Q3末$5.6M$7.0M$8.6M
Q4末$6.0M$7.7M$9.8M
每月跟踪实际情况，若趋向悲观场景则调整Q3计划。
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Skill Boundaries

Skill适用边界

What This Skill Does Well

该Skill擅长的内容

  • Structuring scenario frameworks
  • Calculating outcomes from assumptions
  • Identifying key sensitivities
  • Presenting range of possibilities
  • 构建场景框架
  • 根据假设计算结果
  • 识别关键敏感性因素
  • 呈现结果范围

What This Skill Cannot Do

该Skill无法完成的内容

  • Predict which scenario will occur
  • Know your specific business dynamics
  • Account for black swan events
  • Replace expert judgment on probabilities
  • 预测具体会出现哪个场景
  • 了解您的特定业务动态
  • 考虑黑天鹅事件
  • 替代专家对概率的判断

When to Escalate to Human

何时升级为人工处理

  • Setting official targets
  • Board/investor commitments
  • Major strategic pivots
  • Assumptions requiring domain expertise
  • 设定官方目标
  • 向董事会/投资者作出承诺
  • 重大战略转型
  • 需要领域专业知识的假设设定

Iteration Guide

迭代指南

Follow-up Prompts

后续提示示例

  • "What win rate do we need to hit Base case?"
  • "Show me monthly revenue trajectory for each scenario."
  • "Add a 'catastrophic' case if we lose our biggest customer."
  • "What's the probability-weighted forecast?"
  • “要达到基准场景，我们需要多少赢单率？”
  • “展示每个场景的月度收入轨迹。”
  • “如果失去最大客户，新增一个‘灾难性’场景。”
  • “概率加权后的预测值是多少？”

Scenario Planning Cycle

场景规划周期

  1. Set variables and ranges
  2. Calculate scenarios
  3. Identify early warning signals
  4. Define trigger points for action
  5. Review monthly against actuals
  1. 设置变量与范围
  2. 计算场景结果
  3. 识别早期预警信号
  4. 定义行动触发点
  5. 每月对照实际情况回顾

Checklists & Templates

检查表与模板

Annual Planning Template

年度规划模板

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[Year] Revenue Scenarios

[年份]收入场景

Scenarios

场景

CaseRevenueGrowthProbability
Bull20%
Base55%
Bear25%
场景收入增长率概率
乐观20%
基准55%
悲观25%

Key Assumptions

关键假设

VariableBearBaseBull
变量悲观基准乐观

Sensitivity Analysis

敏感性分析

VariableImpact per 10%
变量每变化10%的影响

Risk Register

风险登记册

RiskScenario ImpactMitigation
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风险场景影响缓解措施
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References

参考资料

  • McKinsey Scenario Planning Guide
  • FP&A Forecasting Best Practices
  • SaaS Metrics and Financial Modeling
  • CFO.com Revenue Forecasting
  • McKinsey Scenario Planning Guide
  • FP&A Forecasting Best Practices
  • SaaS Metrics and Financial Modeling
  • CFO.com Revenue Forecasting

Related Skills

相关Skill

  • pipeline-forecasting
    - Feed into scenario models
  • lead-scoring
    - Input for pipeline assumptions
  • account-health
    - NRR/churn inputs
  • pipeline-forecasting
    - 为场景模型提供数据
  • lead-scoring
    - 为销售管道假设提供输入
  • account-health
    - 为NRR/客户流失提供输入

Skill Metadata

Skill元数据

  • Domain: RevOps
  • Complexity: Advanced
  • Mode: centaur
  • Time to Value: 60-90 min for full model
  • Prerequisites: Historical data, variable assumptions
  • 领域: RevOps
  • 复杂度: 高级
  • 模式: centaur
  • 价值实现时间: 完整模型需60-90分钟
  • 前置条件: 历史数据、变量假设 ",