sepa-strategy

Compare original and translation side by side

🇺🇸

Original

English

🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

SEPA Strategy Analysis

SEPA策略分析

Analyze stocks using Mark Minervini's SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) framework — a complete system for identifying high-probability growth stock entries with strict risk management.

Core philosophy: Buy the right stock, in the right stage, at a precise entry point, with strict risk controls. Win rate is ~50-55% — profitability comes from asymmetric risk/reward (small losses, large gains), not from predicting direction.

This skill is for educational/analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Never execute trades based solely on this analysis.

使用Mark Minervini的SEPA（特定入场点分析）框架分析股票——这是一套搭配严格风险管理、用于识别高概率成长股入场点的完整系统。

核心理念： 在正确的阶段、精准的入场点买入正确的股票，搭配严格的风险控制。胜率约为50-55%——盈利来自非对称的风险回报比（小额亏损、大额盈利），而非预测价格走向。

本技能仅用于教育/分析目的，不构成投资建议。切勿仅基于本分析执行交易。

Step 1: Gather Stock Data

步骤1：收集股票数据

Collect the following data for the stock. Use yfinance, funda-data, or any available market data tool.

Data needed	Purpose
Current price	Trend template check
50-day, 150-day, 200-day moving averages	MA alignment verification
52-week high and low	Price position check
200MA value from 1 month ago and 4-5 months ago	MA200 slope direction
20-day average volume + today's volume	Volume ratio analysis
Recent quarterly EPS (last 3-4 quarters)	EPS growth & acceleration
Annual EPS (last 3 years)	Long-term growth trend
Recent quarterly revenue (last 3-4 quarters)	Revenue growth check
Gross margin and net margin trend	Margin health
Institutional ownership changes (if available)	Smart money signal
RS rating or 12-month relative performance vs S&P 500	Relative strength
Price history for pattern recognition	VCP / chart pattern analysis

If certain data is unavailable, note it and proceed with what you have. Missing RS rating is a significant gap — flag it.

收集股票的以下数据，可使用yfinance、funda-data或任何可用的市场数据工具。

所需数据	用途
当前价格	趋势模板检查
50日、150日、200日移动平均线	MA排列验证
52周最高价和最低价	价格位置检查
1个月前和4-5个月前的200MA数值	MA200斜率方向判断
20日平均成交量 + 当日成交量	量比分析
最近3-4个季度的季度EPS	EPS增长与加速度判断
最近3年的年度EPS	长期增长趋势判断
最近3-4个季度的季度营收	营收增长检查
毛利率和净利率趋势	盈利健康度判断
机构持仓变化（如果有）	聪明资金信号判断
RS评级或对标标普500的12个月相对表现	相对强弱判断
用于形态识别的价格历史	VCP / 图表形态分析

如果部分数据不可用，标注清楚后使用现有数据继续分析。缺少RS评级是明显的数据缺口，需要明确标记。

Step 2: Stage Analysis — Identify the Current Stage

步骤2：阶段分析——识别当前所处阶段

Every stock cycles through four stages. Read

references/stage-analysis.md

for full details.

Determine which stage the stock is in:

Stage	Characteristics	Action
Stage 1 — Basing	Price near 200MA, MA flat/declining, MAs tangled, low volume	Do nothing, wait
Stage 2 — Advancing	Making higher highs/lows, bullish MA alignment, volume on up days	Only stage to buy
Stage 3 — Topping	Wide swings at highs, frequent false breakouts, heavy volume without progress	Reduce, no new positions
Stage 4 — Declining	Below all MAs, bearish alignment, bounces are selling opportunities	Full cash, stay away

If the stock is NOT in Stage 2, stop here and tell the user. No further analysis needed.

Within Stage 2, count the base number (how many consolidation-then-breakout cycles have occurred):

Base 1-2: Safest, most upside potential — full position
Base 3-4: Still valid but reduce position size
Base 5-6: Late stage — half position at most
Base 7+: Avoid — likely transitioning to Stage 3

每只股票都会循环经历四个阶段，完整细节可阅读

references/stage-analysis.md

。

判断股票当前所处的阶段：

阶段	特征	操作建议
阶段1 — 筑底	价格接近200MA，MA走平/下行，均线缠绕，成交量低	观望，等待时机
阶段2 — 上升	不断创出更高的高点/低点，MA多头排列，上涨日放量	唯一可买入的阶段
阶段3 — 见顶	高位大幅波动，频繁出现假突破，放量但价格无进展	减仓，不新增仓位
阶段4 — 下跌	低于所有MA，空头排列，反弹是卖出机会	持有现金，远离该股票

如果股票不在阶段2，在此处终止分析并告知用户，无需继续后续步骤。

在阶段2内，统计基底数量（已经发生了多少次“整理-突破”周期）：

基底1-2：最安全，上涨空间最大——可满仓入场
基底3-4：仍然有效但需降低仓位规模
基底5-6：阶段后期——最多半仓入场
基底7+：规避——很可能即将过渡到阶段3

Step 3: Trend Template — 8 Mandatory Conditions

步骤3：趋势模板——8项强制条件

All 8 conditions must be met simultaneously. If any fails, the stock does not qualify. Read

references/trend-template.md

for detailed explanations.

Present results as a checklist:

#	Condition	Status	Value
1	Price > 150MA and Price > 200MA	Pass/Fail	[actual values]
2	150MA > 200MA	Pass/Fail	[actual values]
3	200MA trending up for ≥1 month (ideally 4-5 months)	Pass/Fail	[slope data]
4	50MA > 150MA and 50MA > 200MA	Pass/Fail	[actual values]
5	Price > 50MA	Pass/Fail	[actual values]
6	Price ≥ 30% above 52-week low	Pass/Fail	[% above low]
7	Price within 25% of 52-week high	Pass/Fail	[% from high]
8	Relative Strength > 70th percentile (prefer 85-90+)	Pass/Fail/Unknown	[RS if available]

Memory aid: Conditions 1-5 = "MA staircase" (Price > 50MA > 150MA > 200MA, 200MA rising). Conditions 6-7 = "Price position" (far from low, near high). Condition 8 = "Relative strength" (market leader).

8项条件必须同时满足，任何一项不满足则该股票不符合要求。详细解释可阅读

references/trend-template.md

。

以检查清单的形式展示结果：

#	条件	状态	数值
1	价格 > 150MA 且价格 > 200MA	通过/未通过	[实际数值]
2	150MA > 200MA	通过/未通过	[实际数值]
3	200MA向上趋势已维持≥1个月（理想为4-5个月）	通过/未通过	[斜率数据]
4	50MA > 150MA 且 50MA > 200MA	通过/未通过	[实际数值]
5	价格 > 50MA	通过/未通过	[实际数值]
6	价格 ≥ 52周最低价的130%	通过/未通过	[较低点上涨百分比]
7	价格处于52周最高价的25%区间内	通过/未通过	[较最高点下跌百分比]
8	相对强弱>70分位值（优先85-90+）	通过/未通过/未知	[RS值（如果有）]

记忆技巧： 条件1-5 = “均线阶梯”（价格>50MA>150MA>200MA，200MA上行）；条件6-7 = “价格位置”（远离低点，接近高点）；条件8 = “相对强弱”（市场领头羊）。

Step 4: Fundamental Check

步骤4：基本面检查

Strong fundamentals separate real leaders from momentum-only stocks. Read

references/fundamentals.md

for thresholds and rating criteria.

Check these in order of importance:

Quarterly EPS growth ≥ 20% (prefer 25-50%+). Below 20% = disqualify.
EPS acceleration: Current quarter growth > prior quarter growth. Deceleration (even with positive growth) is a warning.
Annual EPS growth ≥ 25% for each of the past 3 years.
Revenue growth ≥ 15% annually, ≥ 20-25% quarterly preferred. If EPS grows but revenue doesn't, the growth is likely from cost-cutting (unsustainable).
Margin trend: Gross and net margins stable or expanding = healthy. Contracting margins even with EPS growth = red flag.
Institutional ownership increasing: Smart money accumulating = fuel for Stage 2 move.
Catalyst: New product, FDA approval, major contract, market expansion, etc. Stocks with catalysts can run 50-100%+; without, typically 15-25%.

Rate fundamentals: A (EPS >30%, positive, revenue growing) / B (15-30%) / C (0-15%) / D (negative — skip).

强劲的基本面能区分真正的领头羊和仅靠动量上涨的股票。阈值和评级标准可阅读

references/fundamentals.md

。

按重要性顺序检查以下内容：

季度EPS增长率≥20%（优先25-50%+），低于20%直接淘汰。
EPS加速度：当季增长率>上一季度增长率，增速放缓（即使仍为正增长）是预警信号。
过去3年每年的年度EPS增长率≥25%。
年度营收增长率≥15%，优先季度增长率≥20-25%。如果EPS增长但营收不增长，增长大概率来自成本削减（不可持续）。
利润率趋势：毛利率和净利率稳定或扩张为健康，即使EPS增长但利润率收缩是危险信号。
机构持仓上升：聪明资金在加仓是阶段2上涨的动力。
催化剂：新产品、FDA批准、重大合同、市场扩张等。有催化剂的股票可能上涨50-100%以上，没有催化剂的通常仅上涨15-25%。

基本面评级：A（EPS>30%，正向增长，营收增长） / B（15-30%） / C（0-15%） / D（负增长——直接跳过）。

Step 5: Pattern Recognition

步骤5：形态识别

Identify which consolidation pattern is forming (if any). Read

references/patterns.md

for detailed identification rules for each pattern.

识别正在形成的整理形态（如果存在），各形态的详细识别规则可阅读

references/patterns.md

。

VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) — The Core Pattern

VCP（波动率收缩模式）——核心形态

The signature SEPA pattern. Look for these 7 characteristics:

Stock must be in Stage 2 uptrend (prerequisite)
Pullback depths decrease in sequence (e.g., 20% → 12% → 6% → 3%). Minimum 3 contractions, 4-5 ideal.
Volume shrinks with each contraction. Final contraction shows "Volume Dry-Up" (VDU) — multi-week low volume.
Higher lows — each pullback bottom is higher than the previous one.
Clear pivot point — the consolidation range high = resistance level to break.
RS > 70 (preferably 85-90+)
Market in bull or neutral environment

SEPA的标志性形态，需要满足以下7个特征：

股票必须处于阶段2上升趋势（前置条件）
回调深度依次缩小（比如20% → 12% → 6% → 3%），最少3次收缩，4-5次为理想状态。
每次收缩伴随成交量缩小，最后一次收缩出现“成交量枯竭（VDU）”——数周以来的最低成交量。
低点逐步抬高——每次回调的底部都比前一次更高。
清晰的枢轴点——整理区间的高点=需要突破的阻力位。
RS>70（优先85-90+）
市场处于牛市或中性环境

Other Valid Patterns

其他有效形态

Pattern	Depth	Duration	Key Feature
Cup with Handle	Cup 12-35%, handle ≤12%	7-65 weeks	U-shaped base + small handle
Flat Base	≤ 15%	5-10 weeks	Tight range near prior highs
Bull Flag	≤ 50% of flagpole	1-5 weeks	Sharp advance + tight drift down
High Tight Flag	≤ 25% after 100%+ advance	1-4 weeks	Rarest but most powerful

All patterns share the same entry rule: breakout above the pivot point with volume ≥ 1.5x the 20-day average.

形态	回调深度	持续时间	核心特征
Cup with Handle	杯部12-35%，柄部≤12%	7-65周	U型基底+小型柄部
Flat Base	≤15%	5-10周	接近前期高点的窄幅震荡区间
Bull Flag	≤旗杆涨幅的50%	1-5周	大幅上涨+窄幅下行整理
High Tight Flag	上涨100%+后回调≤25%	1-4周	最罕见但爆发力最强

所有形态共享相同的入场规则： 突破枢轴点时成交量≥20日平均成交量的1.5倍。

Step 6: Entry Point Analysis

步骤6：入场点分析

Read

references/entry-rules.md

for detailed entry mechanics, true vs false breakout identification, and the pocket pivot alternative.

详细的入场机制、真假突破识别、备用的口袋支点规则可阅读

references/entry-rules.md

。

Primary Entry: Pivot Point Breakout

主要入场方式：枢轴点突破

Pivot point = the highest price in the consolidation range. This is the supply/demand inflection point.
Buy zone = pivot price to +5% above pivot. This is the only valid entry window.
Beyond +5%: Do NOT chase. Wait for the next setup.
Breakout volume: Must be ≥ 1.5x the 20-day average volume (≥ 2x is strong confirmation).
Earnings proximity: Avoid entering within 2 weeks of an earnings report.

枢轴点 = 整理区间的最高价格，是供需拐点。
买入区间 = 枢轴价格到枢轴价格上浮5%，这是唯一有效的入场窗口。
超过上浮5%：不要追高，等待下一个入场设置。
突破成交量：必须≥20日平均成交量的1.5倍（≥2倍是强确认信号）。
财报临近度：避免在财报发布前2周内入场。

Breakout Quality Check

突破质量检查

Signal	True Breakout	False Breakout
Volume	≥ 1.5x average, big spike	Below average, weak
Close	Near the day's high	Falls back below pivot
Follow-through	Continues higher next day	Drops back into range
Context	VDU preceded breakout	No volume dry-up before

信号	真突破	假突破
成交量	≥1.5倍平均成交量，大幅放量	低于平均成交量，放量疲软
收盘价	接近当日最高价	跌回枢轴点下方
后续走势	次日继续上涨	跌回整理区间
前置信号	突破前出现成交量枯竭	突破前无成交量枯竭

Risk/Reward Validation

风险回报验证

Before entering, verify:

Stop loss distance: Entry price to stop ≤ 7-8%
Reward/risk ratio: Target profit / stop distance ≥ 2:1 (prefer 3:1)
If ratio < 2:1, the entry is too risky — skip it.

入场前需确认：

止损距离：入场价到止损价的跌幅≤7-8%
风险回报比：目标利润/止损距离≥2:1（优先3:1）
如果比值<2:1，入场风险过高——跳过该标的。

Step 7: Position Sizing & Stop Loss Plan

步骤7：仓位规模与止损计划

Read

references/position-sizing.md

for the full formula, examples, stop loss evolution, and pyramiding rules.

完整计算公式、示例、止损调整规则、加仓规则可阅读

references/position-sizing.md

。

Position Size Formula

仓位规模计算公式

Shares = (Account Value × Risk Per Trade %) ÷ (Entry Price − Stop Price)

Example: $100,000 account, 1% risk, buy at $50, stop at $46.50:

Max loss = $100,000 × 1% = $1,000
Stop distance = $50 − $46.50 = $3.50
Shares = $1,000 ÷ $3.50 = 285 shares ($14,250 = 14.25% of account)

股份数 = (账户总价值 × 单笔交易风险%) ÷ (入场价 − 止损价)

示例：10万美元账户，单笔风险1%，入场价50美元，止损价46.5美元：

最大亏损 = 100000 × 1% = 1000美元
止损距离 = 50 − 46.5 = 3.5美元
股份数 = 1000 ÷ 3.5 = 285股（对应仓位14250美元，占账户的14.25%）

Stop Loss Evolution (3 phases)

止损调整规则（3个阶段）

Phase	Trigger	Action
Phase 1: Initial	At entry	Hard stop at entry price −7-8%. Non-negotiable.
Phase 2: Breakeven	Stock reaches +8%	Sell half, move stop to entry price (breakeven). Trade can no longer lose money.
Phase 3: Trailing	Stock reaches +15%	Sell another 25%, trail remaining stop along 20MA. Close below 20MA = exit all.

Iron rules: Stop losses only move UP, never down. Never average down on a losing position. After 3-4 consecutive losses, reduce risk per trade to 0.5%.

阶段	触发条件	操作
阶段1：初始止损	入场时	硬性止损设置为入场价下跌7-8%，不可调整。
阶段2：保本止损	股价上涨8%	卖出一半仓位，止损调整为入场价（保本），该笔交易不会再产生亏损。
阶段3：移动止损	股价上涨15%	再卖出25%仓位，剩余仓位的止损沿20MA移动，收盘价跌破20MA则全部卖出。

铁则：止损只能向上调整，不能向下调整。永远不要在亏损仓位上加仓。连续3-4次亏损后，单笔交易风险降低到0.5%。

Pyramiding (Adding to Winners)

金字塔加仓（给盈利仓位加仓）

Only add to winning positions, with decreasing size: 50% initial → 30% at +8% → 20% at next base breakout. Never add to losers.

仅给盈利的仓位加仓，加仓规模依次递减：初始仓位50% → 上涨8%时加30% → 下一个基底突破时加20%。永远不要给亏损仓位加仓。

Step 8: Market Environment Check

步骤8：市场环境检查

Read

references/market-environment.md

for detailed criteria.

The market environment is the master switch for position sizing:

Environment	Criteria	Risk Per Trade	Max Positions
Bull	S&P 500/Nasdaq above 200MA, breadth expanding, new highs > new lows	1-2%	6-8
Choppy	Sideways indices, frequent failed breakouts	0.5-1%	2-3
Bear	Indices below 200MA, >50% of stocks below 200MA	0% (no new positions)	0 (all cash)

Even the best setups fail in bear markets. Holding cash during bear markets IS a winning strategy — preserving capital for the next bull run.

详细标准可阅读

references/market-environment.md

。

市场环境是仓位规模的总开关：

市场环境	判断标准	单笔交易风险	最大持仓数
牛市	标普500/纳斯达克高于200MA，市场广度扩张，新高股数>新低股数	1-2%	6-8
震荡市	指数横盘，频繁出现假突破	0.5-1%	2-3
熊市	指数低于200MA，超过50%的股票低于200MA	0%（不新增仓位）	0（全仓持有现金）

即使是最好的入场设置在熊市也会失效，熊市持有现金就是获胜策略——为下一轮牛市保存资本。

Step 9: Respond to the User

步骤9：给用户的反馈

Present a structured analysis report with these sections:

展示结构化的分析报告，包含以下板块：

Report Structure

报告结构

Stock & Stage: Ticker, current price, identified stage, base count if Stage 2
Trend Template Scorecard: 8-condition checklist with pass/fail and actual values
Fundamental Grade: A/B/C/D with EPS growth, acceleration status, revenue, margins
Pattern Identified: Which pattern (VCP, cup-handle, flat base, flag, HTF, or none), with key measurements (contraction depths, volume behavior)
Entry Assessment:
- If a valid pattern exists: pivot price, buy zone, breakout volume requirement
- If not yet formed: what to watch for
- If already extended: "This has moved beyond the buy zone — wait for the next consolidation"
Position Sizing: Using the formula, show exact shares, stop price, first target, second target, and reward/risk ratio. Ask the user for their account size and risk tolerance if not provided.
Market Environment: Current assessment and how it affects sizing
Overall Verdict: One of:
- Strong Buy Setup — all criteria met, actionable now
- Watch List — promising but pattern not yet complete or one condition marginal
- Pass — fails trend template, wrong stage, or poor fundamentals

Always end with the disclaimer that this is educational analysis, not investment advice.

股票与阶段：股票代码、当前价格、识别到的阶段，如果是阶段2则标注基底数量
趋势模板评分卡：8项条件的检查清单，标注通过/未通过和实际数值
基本面评级：A/B/C/D，附带EPS增长率、增速状态、营收、利润率信息
识别到的形态：对应形态（VCP、cup-handle、flat base、flag、HTF或无），附带关键指标（收缩深度、成交量表现）
入场评估：
- 如果存在有效形态：枢轴价格、买入区间、突破成交量要求
- 如果形态尚未形成：需要观察的信号
- 如果已经超买：“该标的已经超出买入区间——等待下一次整理”
仓位规模计算：使用公式展示具体股份数、止损价、第一目标价、第二目标价、风险回报比，如果用户未提供账户规模和风险承受度则询问相关信息
市场环境：当前评估结果以及对仓位的影响
整体结论：选其一：
- 优质买入设置——所有条件满足，当前可执行
- 观察名单——有潜力但形态尚未完成，或某一项条件勉强达标
- 不推荐——未通过趋势模板、阶段错误或基本面较差

报告末尾必须附上免责声明：本内容为教育性分析，不构成投资建议。

Reference Files

参考文件

```
references/stage-analysis.md
```
— Four-stage theory, transition signals, base counting
```
references/trend-template.md
```
— Detailed 8-condition explanations and memory aids
```
references/fundamentals.md
```
— EPS, revenue, margins, institutional holdings, catalysts
```
references/patterns.md
```
— VCP 7 rules, cup-with-handle, flat base, flag, high tight flag, quality vs fake signals
```
references/entry-rules.md
```
— Pivot point mechanics, buy zone, pocket pivot, true vs false breakout identification
```
references/position-sizing.md
```
— Formula, stop loss 3-phase evolution, pyramiding, loss handling
```
references/market-environment.md
```
— Bull/choppy/bear criteria and position adjustment rules

```
references/stage-analysis.md
```
— 四阶段理论、阶段转换信号、基底计数规则
```
references/trend-template.md
```
— 8项条件的详细解释和记忆技巧
```
references/fundamentals.md
```
— EPS、营收、利润率、机构持仓、催化剂相关规则
```
references/patterns.md
```
— VCP7项规则、cup-with-handle、flat base、flag、high tight flag、真假信号判断
```
references/entry-rules.md
```
— 枢轴点机制、买入区间、口袋支点、真假突破识别
```
references/position-sizing.md
```
— 计算公式、止损三阶段调整规则、金字塔加仓、亏损处理
```
references/market-environment.md
```
— 牛市/震荡市/熊市判断标准和仓位调整规则