amz-profit-analyzer

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Profit Analyzer

盈利分析工具

A product can sell well and still lose money. Per-unit fee math (see amz-fba-calculator) tells you if a single unit is profitable. This skill goes wider: it analyzes real profitability per ASIN and across the catalog, including the costs that only show up at the account level, and finds where the money actually goes.

一款产品销量好仍可能亏损。单位费用计算（参见amz-fba-calculator）可以告诉你单个产品是否盈利。本技能更全面：它分析每个ASIN及整个产品目录的真实盈利能力，包括仅在账户层面显现的成本，找出资金的实际去向。

When to use this

使用场景

Sales are strong but the bank balance is not growing.
A seller wants to know which products carry the business and which drain it.
Profit came in far below the per-unit math's promise.
Deciding which SKUs to scale, fix, or cut.

销量强劲但银行余额未增长。
卖家想了解哪些产品支撑业务，哪些拖后腿。
利润远低于单位费用计算的预期。
决定哪些SKU要扩大规模、优化或淘汰。

The framework. The Profit Waterfall

框架：盈利瀑布模型

True profit is revenue minus seven layers. The per-unit calculators stop at layer 3. the money usually leaks in layers 4 to 7.

Gross revenue
  minus  Amazon selling fees   (referral, fulfillment)
  minus  Cost of goods         (landed: factory + freight + duty)
  minus  Storage               (monthly + long-term storage fees)
  minus  Advertising           (the real ad spend attributed to the SKU)
  minus  Returns and refunds   (refunded amount + lost units + return processing)
  minus  Promotions            (coupons, deals, deal fees, discounts)
  minus  Hidden and overhead   (removal fees, reimbursements net, chargebacks, software, VA)
  =      True net profit

Run the waterfall per ASIN. The pattern across the catalog tells the story: a few SKUs usually carry the business, several are break-even, and one or two quietly lose money while looking busy.

真实利润是收入减去七层成本。单位费用计算器仅计算到第三层，资金通常在第四到第七层流失。

总收入
  减去 亚马逊销售费用   (佣金、履约费)
  减去 商品成本         (到岸价：工厂成本+运费+关税)
  减去 仓储费用         (月度+长期仓储费)
  减去 广告费用         (归因于该SKU的实际广告支出)
  减去 退货与退款       (退款金额+损失的产品+退货处理费)
  减去 促销费用         (优惠券、活动、活动费、折扣)
  减去 隐藏及管理费用   (移除费、净报销额、拒付、软件费用、虚拟助理费用)
  =      真实净利润

针对每个ASIN运行瀑布模型。整个产品目录的模式能说明问题：通常少数SKU支撑业务，部分收支平衡，还有一两个看似销量不错实则悄悄亏损。

The leak finder

漏洞排查器

For each SKU, compute each layer as a percent of that SKU's revenue. The layer that is abnormally large versus the rest of the catalog is the leak:

Advertising far above the catalog norm. an ad-dependent SKU, the listing or conversion is weak.
Returns far above the norm. a product, sizing, or expectation problem.
Storage far above the norm. overstock or a slow mover, possibly facing long-term storage fees.
Promotions far above the norm. discounting that has become a permanent crutch.

针对每个SKU，计算每层成本占该SKU收入的百分比。与其他产品相比占比异常高的层级就是漏洞：

广告费用远高于目录平均水平。这类依赖广告的SKU，其listing或转化率表现不佳。
退货率远高于平均水平。存在产品、尺寸或预期不符的问题。
仓储费用远高于平均水平。库存过剩或滞销，可能面临长期仓储费。
促销费用远高于平均水平。折扣已成为永久依赖的手段。

Step by step

步骤

Collect inputs. Per ASIN where possible: units sold, revenue, Amazon fees, landed cost, ad spend, returns, storage, promotion costs, and any account-level overhead to allocate.
Run the waterfall per ASIN. Produce true net profit and true net margin for each, not just for the catalog total.
Rank the catalog. Sort SKUs by true net profit. Identify the carriers, the break-even SKUs, and any loss-makers.
Run the leak finder on each SKU. Name the abnormal layer.
Recommend per SKU. Scale the carriers, fix the named leak on the break-even SKUs, and decide cut or fix on the loss-makers.
Surface the hidden layer. Account-level costs sellers forget. removal fees, long-term storage, reimbursement gaps, software, labor. Allocate and show them.
Run the quality check, then deliver.

收集输入数据：尽可能按ASIN提供：销量、收入、亚马逊费用、到岸成本、广告支出、退货、仓储、促销成本，以及任何需要分摊的账户层面管理费用。
针对每个ASIN运行瀑布模型：计算每个ASIN的真实净利润和真实净利润率，而不仅仅是整个目录的总和。
对产品目录排名：按真实净利润对SKU排序。确定支撑型SKU、收支平衡型SKU和亏损型SKU。
对每个SKU运行漏洞排查器：指出异常的成本层级。
针对每个SKU给出建议：扩大支撑型SKU的规模，修复收支平衡型SKU的已识别漏洞，决定淘汰或优化亏损型SKU。
揭示隐藏成本层级：卖家容易忽略的账户层面成本，如移除费、长期仓储费、报销缺口、软件费用、人力成本。进行分摊并展示。
运行质量检查，然后交付结果。

Output format

输出格式

undefined

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Profit Analysis. [catalog or ASIN]

盈利分析. [产品目录或ASIN]

Per-ASIN waterfall

各ASIN瀑布分析

[ASIN] . revenue . fees . COGS . storage . ads . returns . promo . overhead . NET . margin% ...

[ASIN] . 收入 . 费用 . 商品成本 . 仓储 . 广告 . 退货 . 促销 . 管理费用 . 净利润 . 利润率% ...

Catalog ranking

产品目录排名

Carriers: [SKUs and their net] Break-even: [SKUs] Loss-makers: [SKUs]

支撑型SKU: [SKU及其净利润] 收支平衡型SKU: [SKU] 亏损型SKU: [SKU]

Leaks

漏洞分析

[SKU] . abnormal layer . [the leak and the fix] ...

[SKU] . 异常成本层级 . [漏洞及修复方案] ...

Recommendations

建议

Scale: ... Fix: ... Cut or rework: ...

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扩大规模: ... 优化: ... 淘汰或重做: ...

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Worked example

示例

A 6-SKU catalog looks healthy on revenue. The waterfall shows SKU C, the best seller by units, runs ad spend at 31 percent of its revenue while the catalog norm is 14. Its true net margin is 2 percent. SKU C is not a winner, it is a treadmill. the listing converts poorly and only ad spend keeps it moving.

Recommendation: do not scale SKU C. Fix the conversion leak first (listing and images). Two other SKUs are the real carriers and deserve the ad budget that SKU C is burning.

一个包含6个SKU的产品目录从收入看表现良好。瀑布模型显示，按销量计算的最佳卖家SKU C，其广告支出占收入的31%，而目录平均水平为14%。它的真实净利润率仅为2%。SKU C不是赢家，而是一个“treadmill（消耗型产品）”。其listing转化率不佳，只能靠广告支出维持销量。

建议：不要扩大SKU C的规模。首先修复转化率漏洞（优化listing和图片）。另外两个SKU才是真正的支撑型产品，值得获得SKU C正在消耗的广告预算。

Quality check

质量检查

The full seven-layer waterfall is run, including ads, returns, promo, and overhead.
Profit is computed per ASIN, not only as a catalog total.
Each SKU's layers are compared as a percent of revenue to find the abnormal one.
Loss-making SKUs are identified explicitly, even if they sell well by units.
Account-level hidden costs are allocated and shown, not ignored.
Each SKU gets a scale, fix, or cut recommendation.

运行完整的七层瀑布模型，包括广告、退货、促销和管理费用。
按ASIN计算利润，而不仅仅是目录总和。
将每个SKU的各成本层级与收入的占比进行对比，找出异常项。
明确识别亏损型SKU，即使它们销量不错。
分摊并展示账户层面的隐藏成本，而非忽略。
为每个SKU提供扩大规模、优化或淘汰的建议。

Common mistakes

常见错误

Stopping at per-unit fees. The per-unit math says a SKU is fine while ads, returns, and promos make it a loss.
Catalog-total thinking. A healthy total can hide a SKU bleeding money.
Confusing units with profit. The best seller by volume can be the worst by margin.
Ignoring overhead. Removal fees, long-term storage, software, and labor are real and rarely allocated.
Scaling a treadmill. Pouring budget into a SKU that only moves because of ad spend.

仅计算单位费用：单位费用计算显示SKU盈利，但广告、退货和促销使其实际亏损。
仅看目录总利润：健康的总利润可能掩盖某个SKU的资金流失。
混淆销量与利润：销量最高的产品可能利润率最低。
忽略管理费用：移除费、长期仓储费、软件和人力成本都是真实存在的，但很少被分摊。
扩大消耗型产品规模：将预算投入仅靠广告维持销量的SKU。

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