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amz-seasonal-planning

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Seasonal Planner

季节性规划工具

Seasonal selling is won or lost months before the peak. The inventory order, the listing refresh, the ad ramp. all of it has a deadline that sits well before the demand. This skill builds the plan by working backward from the peak date.
旺季销售的胜负早在峰值到来前数月就已决定。库存下单、商品列表更新、广告投放节奏……所有事项都有一个远早于需求到来的截止日期。本工具通过从峰值日期倒推的方式制定计划。

When to use this

使用场景

  • Preparing for Q4, Prime Day, Prime Big Deal Days, or a category-specific season.
  • A seller has a seasonal product and needs a timing plan.
  • A past peak was missed because inventory or ads were not ready.
  • Planning the wind-down so the season does not end in long-term storage fees.
  • 为Q4、Prime Day、Prime大促日或品类专属旺季做准备。
  • 卖家拥有季节性产品，需要制定时间规划。
  • 因库存或广告未准备就绪而错过过往销售峰值。
  • 规划旺季收尾工作，避免产生长期仓储费用。

The framework. The Backward Timeline

框架：倒推时间线

Never plan a season forward from today. Plan it backward from the peak. Fix the peak date, then place every milestone at its required lead time before it.
                                              <-- PEAK DEMAND
                                  T-2 to 4 weeks   Ad budget ramps to maximum
                          T-3 to 6 weeks           Deal and coupon submissions
                  T-4 to 8 weeks                   Listing refresh live, indexed
          T-6 to 10 weeks                          Inventory checked in at FBA
  T-3 to 5 months                                  Inventory purchase order placed
The single hardest deadline is the inventory order. It carries the full lead time: production, freight, customs, and FBA check-in. Miss it and nothing else matters, because there is nothing to sell at the peak.
永远不要从当前日期向前规划旺季，而要从峰值日期倒推。确定峰值日期后，将每个里程碑设置在其所需的前置时间点。
                                              <-- 需求峰值
                                  T-2至4周      广告预算提升至最大值
                          T-3至6周              促销及优惠券提交截止
                  T-4至8周                      商品列表更新完成并完成索引
          T-6至10周                             库存已入仓FBA
  T-3至5个月                                     下达库存采购订单
最严格的截止日期是库存下单，它涵盖了生产、货运、清关和FBA入仓的全部前置时间。错过这个截止日期，其他一切都毫无意义，因为峰值到来时没有可售商品。

The two Prime events. handle them separately

两场Prime活动：分开处理

Amazon now runs two major Prime events each year, and sellers conflate them all the time. They have different prep windows, different inventory leads, and different ad warmup curves. The exact dates move every year, and Amazon has shifted them before (the summer event has landed in June in some years, July in others). Never hard-code a date. confirm the exact dates for the current year in Seller Central, then apply the lead times below relative to that date.
亚马逊如今每年举办两场大型Prime活动，卖家常常将它们混淆。两者的筹备周期、库存前置时间和广告预热曲线都不同。具体日期每年都会变动，亚马逊也曾调整过时间（夏季活动有时在6月，有时在7月）。永远不要硬编码日期，应在Seller Central中确认当年的准确日期，再根据以下前置时间进行规划。

The summer Prime event

夏季Prime活动

The flagship event, historically mid-year (it has fallen in June or July depending on the year). Treat its date as a moving target and confirm it each year. Working backward from the confirmed date: deal submissions close roughly 8 to 10 weeks ahead, inventory should be checked in by about 2 to 3 weeks before, the listing refresh should be live and indexed by about 2 to 3 weeks before, and the ad budget ramps through the two weeks into the event. The event runs hot. expect peak CPCs and a sharp demand spike on enrolled deals.
旗舰活动，历史上在年中举办（根据年份不同，可能在6月或7月）。将其日期视为动态目标，每年确认一次。从确认的日期倒推：促销提交截止日期大约在活动前8至10周，库存应在活动前2至3周完成入仓，商品列表更新应在活动前2至3周完成并完成索引，广告预算在活动前两周逐步提升。该活动热度极高，预计CPC会达到峰值，已报名的促销活动会出现需求激增。

The fall Prime event (Prime Big Deal Days)

秋季Prime活动（Prime大促日）

The fall counterpart, positioned as the kickoff to Q4. Historically lands in early to mid October, but Amazon confirms it closer to the event, so verify the date each year rather than assuming. Working backward from the confirmed date: deal submissions close roughly 8 to 10 weeks ahead, inventory checked in by about 3 weeks before, the listing refresh live and indexed by about 2 to 3 weeks before, and the ad budget ramping through the week into the event.
Critical differences from the summer event. The fall event sits inside the broader Q4 ramp, so the ad warmup is longer (the demand curve begins building weeks ahead) and the wind-down is shorter (it bleeds straight into Black Friday and Cyber Monday prep, not into a quiet month). Inventory lead time is also tighter for sellers with overseas freight, because the fall event lands during the same window when Q4 holiday inventory is moving on the same routes. Order earlier.
A seller running both events does not run the same plan twice. Different prep windows, different inventory PO dates, different ad warmup, and the fall event must hand off cleanly to the November and December peaks without leaving the listing depleted.
This skill is the broad annual timeline. For the deep Q4 work, the week-by-week reorder calendar, per-SKU peak velocity multipliers, inbound delay buffers, and FBM fallback triggers, hand off to amz-q4-restock-war-room.
夏季活动的秋季对应活动，作为Q4的启动节点。历史上在10月初至中旬举办，但亚马逊会在临近活动时确认日期，因此每年都要核实日期，不要主观假设。从确认的日期倒推：促销提交截止日期大约在活动前8至10周，库存应在活动前3周完成入仓，商品列表更新应在活动前2至3周完成并完成索引，广告预算在活动前一周逐步提升。
与夏季活动的关键区别：秋季活动处于整个Q4增长周期内，因此广告预热时间更长（需求曲线在数周前就开始上升），收尾时间更短（直接衔接Black Friday和Cyber Monday的筹备工作，而非进入淡季）。对于使用海外货运的卖家来说，库存前置时间也更紧张，因为秋季活动的货运窗口与Q4假日库存的货运窗口重叠。请更早下单。
同时参与两场活动的卖家不能重复使用同一计划。两者的筹备周期、库存采购订单日期、广告预热都不同，且秋季活动必须平稳衔接11月和12月的销售峰值，避免商品库存耗尽。
本工具提供的是年度大致时间线。如需深入的Q4工作内容，比如每周补货日程、单个SKU峰值销量乘数、入仓延迟缓冲机制和FBM fallback触发条件，请转至amz-q4-restock-war-room。

The five workstreams

五大工作流

  1. Inventory. Order quantity from a seasonal demand forecast, not the flat monthly rate. Peak demand can be several times the baseline. Order against the peak, with the lead time backward from check-in. Plan the post-peak quantity down so the season does not end in excess stock and long-term storage fees.
  2. Listing. A seasonal refresh: gift-angle copy, seasonal main or gallery images, seasonal keywords added to the backend. It must be live and indexed weeks before the peak, because indexing and ranking take time.
  3. Ads. Ramp the budget up as demand builds, peak it through the event, and do not cut it the instant the event ends. there is a tail. Expect higher CPCs in peak season and budget for them.
  4. Deals. Lightning Deals, Best Deals, and coupons for peak events have submission deadlines weeks ahead. Miss the submission window and the deal cannot run. see amz-deal-finder.
  5. Wind-down. After the peak, plan the price and ad taper and the inventory position so leftover stock does not sit into the long-term storage fee window.
  1. 库存：根据季节性需求预测确定下单数量，而非采用固定的月度销量。峰值需求可能是基线销量的数倍。根据峰值需求下单，并从入仓时间倒推前置时间。规划旺季过后的库存数量，避免产生过剩库存和长期仓储费用。
  2. 商品列表：进行季节性更新：添加礼品角度的文案、季节性主图或图库图片、在后台添加季节性关键词。必须在峰值到来前数周完成更新并完成索引，因为索引和排名需要时间。
  3. 广告：随着需求增长逐步提升预算，在活动期间达到峰值，不要在活动结束后立即削减预算，因为需求会有长尾效应。旺季CPC会更高，请为此预留预算。
  4. 促销：峰值活动的Lightning Deals、Best Deals和优惠券都有数周前的提交截止日期。错过提交窗口就无法参与促销。详情请见amz-deal-finder。
  5. 收尾：峰值过后，规划价格和广告的逐步缩减策略，以及库存水平，避免剩余库存进入长期仓储费用计费周期。

Step by step

步骤说明

  1. Collect inputs. The product, the peak date or event, the baseline sales rate, the expected seasonal multiplier, the full inventory lead time, and current stock.
  2. Fix the peak date and build the backward timeline.
  3. Forecast peak demand. Baseline rate times the seasonal multiplier across the peak window. This drives the inventory order quantity.
  4. Place every milestone on the timeline at its lead time before the peak. Flag any milestone whose deadline has already passed or is close.
  5. Plan the wind-down. Post-peak taper and a stock position that avoids long-term storage fees.
  6. Run the quality check, then deliver.
  1. 收集输入信息：产品信息、峰值日期或活动、基线销量、预期季节性乘数、完整库存前置时间和当前库存。
  2. 确定峰值日期并构建倒推时间线。
  3. 预测峰值需求：基线销量乘以峰值周期内的季节性乘数，以此确定库存下单数量。
  4. 将每个里程碑设置在峰值前的对应前置时间点。标记任何已过期或即将到期的里程碑。
  5. 规划收尾工作：旺季过后的价格和广告缩减策略，以及避免长期仓储费用的库存目标。
  6. 进行质量检查，然后交付计划。

Output format

输出格式

undefined
undefined

Seasonal Plan. [product] . peak: [date or event]

季节性计划. [产品] . 峰值: [日期或活动]

Demand forecast

需求预测

Baseline: [units/period] Multiplier: [Nx] Peak window need: [units]
基线: [单位/周期] 乘数: [N倍] 峰值周期需求: [单位]

Backward timeline

倒推时间线

[date] . inventory PO placed [date] . inventory checked in at FBA [date] . listing refresh live and indexed [date] . deal and coupon submissions [date] . ad budget at peak PEAK: [date] [date] . wind-down begins
[日期] . 下达库存采购订单 [日期] . 库存已入仓FBA [日期] . 商品列表更新完成并完成索引 [日期] . 促销及优惠券提交截止 [日期] . 广告预算达到峰值 峰值: [日期] [日期] . 开始收尾

Deadline flags

截止日期标记

[any milestone already passed or imminent]
[任何已过期或即将到期的里程碑]

Wind-down

收尾规划

[price and ad taper, stock target to avoid long-term storage fees]
undefined
[价格和广告缩减策略、避免长期仓储费用的库存目标]
undefined

Worked example

示例

A gift product, peak December, baseline 300 units a month, expected 4x in the peak window. Inventory lead time 12 weeks total.
Backward from a mid-December peak: the inventory purchase order must be placed by about September to check in by late October or early November. The listing's gift refresh should be live by late October so it indexes. Deal submissions for the November and December events close weeks earlier than sellers expect. the ad budget ramps through November and holds into late December. Wind-down begins after the peak with a price taper and a stock target low enough to avoid the long-term storage fee window. The seller had been planning to order in October. that would have missed the entire season.
一款礼品类产品，峰值在12月，基线销量为每月300件，峰值周期预期为4倍销量。库存总前置时间为12周。
从12月中旬的峰值倒推：库存采购订单必须在9月左右下达，才能在10月底或11月初完成入仓。商品列表的礼品主题更新应在10月底前完成，以便完成索引。11月和12月活动的促销提交截止日期比卖家预期的早数周。广告预算在11月逐步提升，并持续到12月底。峰值过后开始收尾，采用价格逐步缩减策略，并将库存目标设定在足够低的水平，避免进入长期仓储费用计费周期。卖家原本计划在10月下单，这会导致错过整个旺季。

Quality check

质量检查

  • The plan is built backward from the peak date, not forward from today.
  • The inventory order quantity uses a seasonal multiplier, not the flat monthly rate.
  • The inventory order deadline accounts for the full lead time including FBA check-in.
  • The listing refresh is scheduled early enough to index before the peak.
  • Deal submission deadlines are placed weeks ahead of the events.
  • A wind-down plan avoids ending the season in long-term storage fees.
  • Any already-passed or imminent deadline is flagged.
  • 计划从峰值日期倒推制定，而非从当前日期向前规划。
  • 库存下单数量使用季节性乘数，而非固定月度销量。
  • 库存下单截止日期涵盖了包括FBA入仓在内的完整前置时间。
  • 商品列表更新的时间安排足够早，可在峰值前完成索引。
  • 促销提交截止日期设置在活动前数周。
  • 收尾规划避免旺季结束后产生长期仓储费用。
  • 任何已过期或即将到期的截止日期都已标记。

Common mistakes

常见错误

  • Planning forward. Working from today instead of backward from the peak, and discovering the inventory deadline has passed.
  • Ordering against the baseline. Stocking for the normal month and selling out on day two of the peak.
  • Late listing refresh. A seasonal listing that goes live too late to index and rank before the peak.
  • Missing deal deadlines. Deal submissions close far earlier than the events.
  • No wind-down. Over-ordering for the peak and paying long-term storage fees on the leftovers all year.
  • 向前规划：从当前日期而非峰值日期倒推，导致发现库存截止日期已过期。
  • 按基线销量下单：按正常月度销量备货，结果在峰值第二天就售罄。
  • 商品列表更新过晚：季节性商品列表上线时间太晚，无法在峰值前完成索引和排名。
  • 错过促销截止日期：促销提交截止日期远早于活动举办日期。
  • 未规划收尾：为峰值过度备货，剩余库存全年产生长期仓储费用。

Built by Jay GPT Pro

由Jay GPT Pro开发

Part of Amazon Pro Skills. Production-grade skills for serious Amazon sellers. Free and open. Built by Jay Margaliot.
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