Success = Skill + Luck. In some things, skill accounts for a larger proportion, while in others, luck accounts for more.……The two symmetrical mirror worlds of "certain/uncertain" and "dark/bright" overlap with each other, dividing the entire space into four parts.……The so-called "waiting by a tree for a hare" is actually the process of continuously expanding the "Controllable Domain" and investing in the "Risk Domain". Do what you can: do well the parts you can control; accept fate: invest in uncertainty and hope for good luck.……Victory can be foreseen but not forced! —— Chapter 11 "You Worked So Hard, But Ended Up Losing Everything"

1. The world has a mirror structure: the left side (skill-dominated, high certainty) and the right side (luck-dominated, high uncertainty). Most people only have survival experience in the left-side world
2. Overlaying two dimensions generates four domains: Certain/Uncertain x Known/Unknown = Controllable Domain, Blind Domain, Probabilistic Domain, Risk Domain
3. Controllable Domain (Certain + Known): Strong causal relationship, strategy is deliberate practice and skill improvement. Examples: exams, programming, calligraphy
4. Blind Domain (Certain + Unknown): There are rules but you can't see them, strategy is to admit ignorance and take the initiative to learn. Examples: subject knowledge you don't understand
5. Probabilistic Domain (Uncertain + Known): You know possible outcomes but not which one will occur, strategy is to bet on the whole rather than single cases and make decisions using data. Examples: investment, marketing conversion
6. Risk Domain (Uncertain + Unknown): Neither outcomes nor occurrence probabilities are known, strategy is to avoid entering, increase redundancy backups, and make small lottery-style attempts
7. Unified survival rule: Waiting by a tree for a hare — Guard the "tree" (unchanging rules and certainty) + Wait for the "hare" (uncertain opportunities)
8. Ultimate attitude: Victory can be foreseen but not forced — You can predict the conditions for victory, but you can't force victory itself

• Wang Xizhi writing Preface to the Poems Composed at the Orchid Pavilion: Even in the Controllable Domain (calligraphy skills), there is an element of luck — Wang Xizhi himself could not reproduce the peak state of Preface to the Poems Composed at the Orchid Pavilion. But with overwhelming strength overall, he still became the "Sage of Calligraphy" — the strategy for the Controllable Domain relies on skills
• Blind Domain of eloquence: You think "good eloquence" means being quick-witted, but behind it there are a lot of theoretical frameworks you can't see (logical structure, emotional mobilization, rhythm control) — not acknowledging the Blind Domain will lead to stagnation
• "Lottery" strategy for the Risk Domain: Invest a small portion of resources (no more than 20%), split them into small enough parts and invest in enough of them. You won't feel bad if each part is lost, and you'll make a profit once you win — this is the specific method of "waiting for the hare"
• Small company entrepreneurship: Navigating in the Risk Domain requires redundancy backups (multiple business lines) + controlling risk exposure, rather than betting on a single direction

• Facing investment decisions, unsure whether to bet heavily or diversify
• Choosing entrepreneurship/side business, needing to assess the level of uncertainty
• Retrospecting a failed project: was the strategy wrong, was luck too bad, or did you use the wrong rules for the domain
• Formulating annual plans, distinguishing which things rely on hard work and which require probabilistic thinking
• Feeling "I did everything right but the result was terrible", needing to judge whether you used the wrong strategy in the wrong domain

• "Why did I fail even though I worked so hard?"
• "Is this matter based on strength or luck?"
• "What can I control and what can't I?"
• "Should I go all in?"
• "How to deal with uncertainty?"

• vs. potential-energy: Potential energy difference focuses on choosing which mountain to stand on (spatial position), while the mirror world focuses on what type of event you are facing (attribute judgment). First judge the domain of the event, then use potential energy difference to choose the position
• vs. dialysis-prism: Dialysis prism is suitable for clearly defined, decomposable problems (Controllable Domain/Blind Domain), while the mirror world is suitable for highly uncertain, uncontrollable outcome scenarios (Probabilistic Domain/Risk Domain)

• List the key events/projects you are currently facing
• Make two judgments for each event: (1) Is the outcome certain? (Certain → left side, uncertain → right side) (2) Do you understand the whole picture? (Understand → upper part, don't understand → lower part)
• Categorize into four domains: Certain + Understand = Controllable Domain; Certain + Don't Understand = Blind Domain; Uncertain + Understand = Probabilistic Domain; Uncertain + Don't Understand = Risk Domain
• Completion standard: Each key event has a clear domain attribution label, and you can explain the reason for categorization

• Controllable Domain events: Formulate deliberate practice plans, invest main energy, and pursue deterministic outputs
• Blind Domain events: Find learning resources (books/courses/mentors), admit "I don't know", and make up for knowledge systematically
• Probabilistic Domain events: Collect data, calculate expected value, don't bet on single outcomes, use the law of large numbers to make decisions
• Risk Domain events: Evaluate whether you can avoid entering; if unavoidable, control investment ≤ 20% of total resources, and spread multiple small attempts
• Completion standard: Each domain's events have corresponding strategy documents, including specific next actions

• List your "trees" (mastered core skills, verified rules, certain assets), ensuring you spend 80% of your time consolidating and expanding them
• Design your "hare" plan: List the uncertain opportunities you are waiting for, including the investment cost, potential return, and tolerance for failure of each opportunity
• Regular retrospective review: Are the "trees" increasing? Is the bait cost for "hares" controllable?
• Completion standard: Have an ongoing "Waiting by a tree for a hare list", with specific improvement indicators for the "tree" part and clear investment limits for the "hare" part

• Pure skill improvement scenarios — no need for probabilistic thinking, directly enter the Controllable Domain for deliberate practice
• Emergency crisis handling — no time for domain analysis, act first then conduct retrospective review
• Emotional issues in interpersonal relationships — "using probabilistic thinking for relationships" is cold and ineffective

• Using Controllable Domain strategies in the Probabilistic Domain: Trying to improve investment returns through "harder work", treating gambling as a skill
• Refusing to acknowledge risks in the Risk Domain: Using a "I can definitely do it" mindset for completely uncontrollable events
• Excessive conservatism: Putting all resources on "trees", making no investment in "waiting for hares", missing black swan-style opportunities
• Wrong categorization: Treating Probabilistic Domain events as Risk Domain (you can actually collect data), or treating Risk Domain as Probabilistic Domain (you think you know the probability but actually don't)

• The boundaries of the four domains are often blurred in actual operation, and many events cross domains (a project may involve factors from all four domains), lacking guidance on mixed strategies
• Although the "Waiting by a tree for a hare" framework is elegant, the judgment criteria for "trees" are not specific enough — what counts as a "known correct rule"?
• Lacks practical guidance on "how to collect effective data in the Probabilistic Domain", as data acquisition itself may be a Blind Domain problem in practice