product-opportunity-recipe

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Product Opportunity Recipe

产品机会评估流程指南

Operate an evidence program, not a long report. Route only methods needed by the current decision; preserve each method's native artifacts; wrap outputs only at handoff; reopen dependent decisions when upstream evidence changes.

推行基于证据的评估流程，而非冗长的报告。仅调用当前决策所需的方法；保留各方法的原生产出物；仅在交接环节封装输出内容；当上游证据发生变化时，重新开启相关依赖决策。

Initialize the assessment controller

初始化评估控制器

Read:

method routing map before activating a method;
gate specifications before judging readiness;
handoff and claim contract when a method output enters the recipe.

Create:

text

assessment/
├── controller.yaml
├── evidence/
│   ├── claim-ledger.*
│   └── contradiction-register.*
├── methods/<method>/<version>/...
├── gates/gate-record.*
└── decision/

Use this controller:

yaml

decision:
decision_owner:
investment_at_stake:
decision_date:
scope:
evidence_cutoff:
current_gate:
gate_applicability:
  - gate:
    disposition: mandatory | conditional | not_applicable
    rationale:
    required_handoff_types:
    version_policy: current_at_gate | same_option_and_cutoff | named_baseline
method_routes:
  - method:
    purpose:
    entry_condition:
    expected_native_artifact:
    disposition: activated | deferred_predecessor_missing | omitted_not_needed
    status: not_started | queued | active | complete | blocked
    omission_reason:
artifacts:
claims:
open_fatal_assumptions:
stale_dependencies:
next_decision:

The decision owner approves the gate-applicability and mandatory-dependency manifest before downstream routing. A method omission cannot waive a required handoff: change gate applicability explicitly, with rationale and authority. Predeclare handoff types and version policy; bind concrete handoff IDs and versions later in each gate record. The controller is current when every activated method has one decision purpose, entry condition, and expected native artifact, and every mandatory gate has an approved dependency policy.

阅读：

激活方法前，先查看方法路由映射；
判断决策就绪状态前，先查看阶段门规范；
当方法输出进入流程时，查看交接与声明协议。

创建如下目录结构：

text

assessment/
├── controller.yaml
├── evidence/
│   ├── claim-ledger.*
│   └── contradiction-register.*
├── methods/<method>/<version>/...
├── gates/gate-record.*
└── decision/

使用如下控制器配置：

yaml

decision:
decision_owner:
investment_at_stake:
decision_date:
scope:
evidence_cutoff:
current_gate:
gate_applicability:
  - gate:
    disposition: mandatory | conditional | not_applicable
    rationale:
    required_handoff_types:
    version_policy: current_at_gate | same_option_and_cutoff | named_baseline
method_routes:
  - method:
    purpose:
    entry_condition:
    expected_native_artifact:
    disposition: activated | deferred_predecessor_missing | omitted_not_needed
    status: not_started | queued | active | complete | blocked
    omission_reason:
artifacts:
claims:
open_fatal_assumptions:
stale_dependencies:
next_decision:

决策负责人需在下游路由前批准阶段门适用性及强制依赖清单。方法的省略不能豁免必要的交接要求：需明确更改阶段门适用性，并提供理由及授权。预先声明交接类型和版本策略；后续在每个阶段门记录中绑定具体的交接ID和版本。当每个已激活的方法都有明确的决策目标、进入条件和预期原生产出物，且每个强制阶段门都有已批准的依赖策略时，控制器即为当前有效状态。

G0 — Frame the opportunity and authorization

G0 — 界定机会与授权

Use iso-56007-opportunity-validation to prepare the front end, identify the solution-free opportunity, create plural concepts, and define validation burden.

Record:

opportunity versus concepts;
decision owner and commitment being considered;
interested and affected parties;
fatal value, feasibility, viability, legal, safety, or organizational dimensions;
alternative concepts and business as usual;
what passing G0 authorizes.

If opportunity, decision authority, or plural concepts are missing, stop at G0. Do not compensate with market estimates or financial forecasts.

使用iso-56007-opportunity-validation完成前期准备，识别无预设方案的机会，生成多元概念，并定义验证要求。

记录：

机会与概念的对比；
决策负责人及正在考量的承诺；
利益相关方及受影响方；
致命的价值、可行性、生存能力、法律、安全或组织层面问题；
替代方案及常规业务模式；
通过G0阶段所授权的内容。

若缺少机会、决策权限或多元概念，则在G0阶段终止评估。不要用市场预估或财务预测来弥补这些缺失。

G1 — Make the evidence process credible

G1 — 确保证据流程可信

G1 requires a credible evidence process, not two methods by default. Activate market-research-design when sampling, instruments, or fieldwork must be fixed or audited. Activate evidence-triangulation when provenance, contradiction, or confidence across sources blocks a decision. Native method records may satisfy G1 without either full method when their own design and lineage controls meet the gate.

G1 controls evidence generated by every later method. It does not replace their native records.

When evidence arrives without a protocol:

preserve it;
assess method and inference limits;
classify it exploratory;
design prospective confirmation where the decision requires it.

G1阶段要求具备可信的证据流程，而非默认使用两种方法。当抽样、工具或实地工作需要固定或审核时，激活market-research-design。当来源可靠性、证据矛盾或跨来源可信度阻碍决策时，激活evidence-triangulation。若原生方法记录自身的设计和溯源控制符合阶段门要求，则无需完整执行上述两种方法即可满足G1阶段要求。

G1阶段管控后续所有方法生成的证据，但不会替代它们的原生记录。

当证据无协议支撑时：

保留该证据；
评估方法及推理局限性；
将其归类为探索性证据；
若决策需要，设计前瞻性验证方案。

Route the next uncertainty

路由至下一个不确定性环节

At every gate, select the next method from the decision-blocking uncertainty—not from a fixed suite order.

Blocking uncertainty	Route
Population, volume, or spend	market-sizing
Meaningful market partitions / beachhead	market-segmentation
External change	pestle-analysis
Industry profit pressure	porters-five-forces
Customer choice and differentiation	competitive-analysis
Problem behavior, buyer, workflow	customer-discovery
Switch, hire, progress, competing alternatives	jobs-to-be-done
Load-bearing concept beliefs	assumption-mapping
Consequential demand before build	pretotyping
Customer-item ↔ offer-item fit	value-proposition-canvas
Integrated value/delivery/capture system	business-model-canvas
Price metric, level, package, or elasticity	pricing-research
Geography/channel/partner commitment sequence	market-entry-strategy
Outcome→opportunity→solution discovery decisions	opportunity-solution-tree
Integrated pre-investment operability	unido-feasibility-study
Per-unit contribution, retention, payback, capacity	unit-economics
Cash, funding, statements, returns, scenarios	financial-modeling
Uncertainty, treatment, residual acceptance	iso-31000-risk-assessment
Final integrated investment case	five-case-model

Open a method only when its entry condition is satisfied. Record routing

disposition

separately from execution

status

;

deferred_predecessor_missing

remains

not_started

, while

activated

can move through queued, active, complete, or blocked.

在每个阶段门，从阻碍决策的不确定性中选择下一个方法——而非按照固定套件顺序选择。

阻碍决策的不确定性	路由方法
用户规模、需求量或消费额	market-sizing
有意义的市场划分 / 滩头市场	market-segmentation
外部变化	pestle-analysis
行业利润压力	porters-five-forces
客户选择与差异化	competitive-analysis
用户问题行为、购买者特征、工作流程	customer-discovery
转换、采购、进展、竞争替代方案	jobs-to-be-done
核心概念假设	assumption-mapping
产品开发前的关键需求	pretotyping
用户需求与产品供给匹配度	value-proposition-canvas
整合式价值/交付/变现体系	business-model-canvas
定价指标、层级、套餐或弹性	pricing-research
地域/渠道/合作伙伴承诺顺序	market-entry-strategy
从结果到机会再到方案的发现决策	opportunity-solution-tree
整合式投资前可操作性	unido-feasibility-study
单位贡献、留存率、投资回报、产能	unit-economics
现金流、融资、报表、收益、场景分析	financial-modeling
不确定性、应对措施、剩余风险接受度	iso-31000-risk-assessment
最终整合式投资案例	five-case-model

仅当方法的进入条件满足时，才启动该方法。将路由

disposition

（处置状态）与执行

status

（运行状态）分开记录；

deferred_predecessor_missing

（因前置依赖缺失延迟）状态保持为

not_started

（未启动），而

activated

（已激活）状态可在queued（排队）、active（进行中）、complete（完成）或blocked（阻塞）间切换。

G2 — Bound a reachable arena

G2 — 界定可触及的市场范围

Activate only the market methods required by the charter. Reconcile shared boundary variables—customer, unit, geography, segment, period, value basis, industry layer, and alternative set—at handoff.

Keep their conclusions distinct:

market size answers how many/how much;
segmentation answers which partitions respond differently;
PESTLE answers which external drivers may move;
Five Forces answers how industry structure divides value;
competitive analysis answers what customers choose and why.

If two methods require different valid boundaries, preserve both and state the decision consequence.

仅激活章程要求的市场分析方法。在交接环节协调共享边界变量——客户、单位、地域、细分市场、周期、价值基准、行业层级及替代方案集合。

保持各方法结论的独立性：

市场规模回答“数量/规模多少”；
市场细分回答“哪些群体反应不同”；
PESTLE分析回答“哪些外部驱动因素可能变化”；
五力模型回答“行业结构如何分配价值”；
竞品分析回答“客户选择什么及原因”。

若两种方法需要不同的有效边界，则保留两种边界并说明决策影响。

G3 — Establish problem and buying behavior

G3 — 明确用户问题与购买行为

Use customer discovery for eligible episodes, operational evidence, stakeholder roles, and commitments. Use JTBD only when switch/hire episodes can reconstruct circumstances and forces.

G3 passes only within the observed population and evidence boundary. Route prevalence to an appropriate quantitative design; route demand to consequential behavior.

使用客户调研获取符合条件的场景、运营证据、利益相关者角色及承诺。仅当可通过转换/采购场景重构环境与动因时，才使用JTBD方法。

G3阶段仅在观测人群及证据边界内通过。将普遍性问题路由至合适的量化设计；将需求问题路由至关键行为分析。

G4 — Develop and test business options

G4 — 开发并测试业务方案

G4 needs at least one coherent value/delivery/capture option, credible alternatives, and enough evidence on assumptions fatal to the requested commitment. Inspect current native handoffs first, then route only unresolved blockers:

use assumption mapping only when load-bearing beliefs are not already explicit and prioritized;
use pretotyping only when a consequential pre-build behavior test can resolve a fatal demand belief;
use VPC/BMC when fit or system architecture is not yet explicit;
use pricing or entry when its decision could change the architecture;
use an OST only when its prerequisites pass and continuous discovery needs a shared decision surface.

Keep at least one credible alternative alive until evidence rejects it. A coherent canvas is a hypothesis; a passed pretotype authorizes only the next learning commitment.

G4阶段至少需要一个连贯的价值/交付/变现方案、可信的替代方案，以及足够支撑所请求承诺的致命假设证据。先检查当前原生交接内容，再仅针对未解决的阻碍因素路由方法：

仅当核心假设未明确且未排序时，使用假设映射；
仅当开发前的关键行为测试可解决致命需求假设时，使用预原型测试；
仅当匹配度或系统架构未明确时，使用VPC/BMC；
仅当定价或市场进入决策可能改变架构时，使用定价或市场进入分析；
仅当满足前提条件且持续发现需要共享决策界面时，使用OST。

至少保留一个可信替代方案，直到证据证明其不可行。连贯的画布是一种假设；通过预原型测试仅授权下一个学习承诺。

G5 — Establish integrated feasibility

G5 — 确认整合式可行性

Inspect gate applicability and current handoffs first. When the requested commitment needs an integrated pre-investment operability finding and no current artifact satisfies the subsystem/interface checks, activate UNIDO to create/freeze the design basis and reconcile market/sales, capacity, inputs, technology/data, operations, organization, implementation, legal/environmental/social conditions, and financial implications. Otherwise record the gate as not applicable or cite the current native handoff that satisfies it.

Specialist legal, regulatory, privacy, security, safety, AI-evaluation, manufacturing, marketplace-liquidity, or supply-chain work enters as a named conditional module. Record its question, authority, native artifact, and gate consequence.

先检查阶段门适用性及当前交接内容。当所请求的承诺需要整合式投资前可操作性结论，且当前无产出物满足子系统/接口检查时，激活UNIDO以创建/冻结设计基准，并协调市场/销售、产能、投入、技术/数据、运营、组织、实施、法律/环境/社会条件及财务影响。否则，记录该阶段门为不适用，或引用满足要求的当前原生交接内容。

专业的法律、监管、隐私、安全、AI评估、制造、市场流动性或供应链工作作为命名条件模块纳入。记录其问题、授权方、原生产出物及阶段门影响。

G6 — Establish sustainable economics and cash

G6 — 确认可持续经济性与现金流

Set the economic evidence required by the requested commitment. Activate unit economics when marginal/cohort contribution, retention, payback, capacity, or working capital is blocking. Activate financial modeling when organization/project cash, funding, statements, returns, or scenario integration is blocking. A current native handoff from another method may satisfy a requirement if it passes the same gate checks; do not run both methods mechanically.

Before closing, reconcile:

text

same unit and segment
same volume/ramp and retention
same price and revenue timing
same capacity and implementation schedule
same cost and working-capital boundaries
same risk and downside assumptions

Positive LTV does not pass G6 when cash or capacity is fatal.

设定所请求承诺所需的经济证据要求。当边际/群组贡献、留存率、投资回报、产能或营运资金成为阻碍时，激活单位经济分析。当组织/项目现金流、融资、报表、收益或场景整合成为阻碍时，激活财务建模。若其他方法的当前原生交接内容通过相同阶段门检查，则可满足要求；无需机械执行两种方法。

结束前，协调以下内容：

text

统一单位与细分市场
统一规模/增长与留存率
统一定价与收入时间
统一产能与实施进度
统一成本与营运资金边界
统一风险与下行假设

当现金流或产能存在致命问题时，即使LTV为正也无法通过G6阶段。

G7 — Decide whether residual risk is acceptable

G7 — 判断剩余风险是否可接受

Inspect gate applicability and current risk handoffs first. Activate ISO 31000 only when the selected option has decision-material uncertainty requiring criteria, treatment, monitoring, or formal acceptance and no current artifact satisfies those checks. Risk treatment must connect to causes, controls, feasibility conditions, model scenarios, owners, triggers, and contingencies.

The authorized risk owner—not the analyst—accepts residual exposure. Fatal legal, safety, ethical, security, or continuity risk remains non-averagable.

先检查阶段门适用性及当前风险交接内容。当所选方案存在影响决策的不确定性，需要标准、应对措施、监控或正式接受，且当前无产出物满足这些检查时，激活ISO 31000。风险应对措施必须与原因、控制措施、可行性条件、模型场景、负责人、触发因素及应急预案相关联。

由授权的风险负责人——而非分析师——接受剩余风险。致命的法律、安全、伦理、安全或连续性风险不可平均化处理。

Recompute through the invalidation graph

通过失效图重新计算

Every handoff declares inputs and outputs. When a material upstream claim, definition, assumption, option, or cutoff changes:

create a new claim or artifact version; preserve the old version;
locate every downstream use through used_by and depends_on;
mark affected handoffs stale;
reopen affected gates;
rerun only methods whose decisions could change;
record the reason and new result.

A polished stale artifact cannot support a gate.

每个交接内容都需声明输入与输出。当重要的上游声明、定义、假设、方案或截止条件发生变化时：

创建新的声明或产出物版本；保留旧版本；
通过used_by和depends_on定位所有下游使用场景；
将受影响的交接内容标记为stale（失效）；
重新开启受影响的阶段门；
仅重新运行可能改变决策的方法；
记录原因及新结果。

经过修饰的失效产出物无法支撑阶段门决策。

G8 — Develop and challenge the investment case

G8 — 制定并挑战投资案例

Activate five-case-model only when the mandatory dependency set for the decision is current. Use the same option set, assumptions, schedule, risks, and evidence across all five cases.

Before the decision:

run a source/evidence challenge;
strengthen the counterfactual and minimum-intervention option;
stress financial optimism and delivery capacity;
inspect omitted methods and unresolved contradictions;
test kill conditions and residual-risk authority;
verify every conclusion against a current handoff.

Issue exactly one:

text

Proceed
Proceed conditionally
Rework / Pivot
Stop
Not decision-ready

仅当决策的强制依赖集为当前有效状态时，激活five-case-model。在所有五个案例中使用相同的方案集、假设、进度、风险及证据。

决策前：

开展来源/证据挑战；
强化反事实及最小干预方案；
测试财务乐观预期及交付能力；
检查遗漏的方法及未解决的矛盾；
测试终止条件及剩余风险授权；
验证每个结论是否与当前交接内容一致。

发布以下结果之一：

text

批准立项
有条件批准
返工/调整方向
终止项目
暂不具备决策条件

Close the assessment

结束评估

Deliver the controller, method-routing record, native artifact index, claim/evidence coverage, contradiction register, gate record, dependency/staleness graph, Five Case investment case when eligible, red-team challenge, and Decision Record.

Close only when:

every material decision claim traces to current native evidence;
every method was activated for a decision reason or omitted with rationale;
every gate cites its minimum evidence and exact failure route;
conditions, kill criteria, and risk acceptance have owners;
missing evidence yields Not decision-ready, never invented confidence.

交付控制器、方法路由记录、原生产出物索引、声明/证据覆盖范围、矛盾登记册、阶段门记录、依赖/失效图、符合条件的Five Case投资案例、红队挑战报告及决策记录。

仅当满足以下条件时，才可结束评估：

每个重要决策声明都可追溯至当前原生证据；
每个方法都因决策原因激活，或有理由省略；
每个阶段门都引用了最低证据要求及明确的失败路径；
条件、终止标准及风险接受度都有负责人；
缺失证据时标注为「暂不具备决策条件」，绝不编造可信度。