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llmquant-prediction-markets

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LLMQuant Prediction Markets

LLMQuant预测市场

This category routes event-probability workflows for prediction markets, options-implied probabilities, and tradable event risk.
本分类为预测市场、期权隐含概率和可交易事件风险的事件概率工作流提供路由服务。

Routing Rules

路由规则

  1. Identify the event, venue, contract, settlement rule, deadline, related assets, and requested output.
  2. Select the closest workflow below.
  3. Open only that workflow and any referenced local resources.
  4. Use LLMQuant Data for prediction-market contracts, prices, liquidity, options, macro, news, and related asset prices.
  5. Report contract timestamps, settlement criteria, liquidity, fees, market windows, and missing inputs.
  1. 识别事件、场所、合约、结算规则、截止日期、相关资产以及请求的输出内容。
  2. 选择最匹配的下方工作流。
  3. 仅打开该工作流及任何引用的本地资源。
  4. 使用LLMQuant Data获取预测市场合约、价格、流动性、期权、宏观数据、新闻及相关资产价格。
  5. 报告合约时间戳、结算标准、流动性、费用、市场窗口以及缺失的输入信息。

Workflow Index

工作流索引

User intentWorkflow
Produce an event probability research brief from market odds and evidence.
workflows/event-probability-brief.md
Check prediction-market cross-venue or contract-level arbitrage conditions.
workflows/prediction-market-arb-watch.md
Compare prediction-market odds with options-implied or asset-implied event pricing.
workflows/probability-vs-options-pricing.md
用户意图工作流
根据市场赔率和证据生成事件概率研究简报。
workflows/event-probability-brief.md
检查预测市场跨场所或合约层面的套利条件。
workflows/prediction-market-arb-watch.md
对比预测市场赔率与期权隐含或资产隐含的事件定价。
workflows/probability-vs-options-pricing.md

LLMQuant Data Contract

LLMQuant数据合约

Prefer LLMQuant Data when available. The workflows may need these data capabilities:
  • Retrieve event contracts, settlement criteria, market odds, order-book depth, volume, fees, and close dates.
  • Retrieve related news, macro releases, asset prices, and issuer or sector context.
  • Retrieve options-implied probabilities, volatility, skew, and event-window pricing when available.
  • Compare venues, contracts, and outcome sets while preserving timestamp and settlement-rule differences.
Fallback:
  • If market data or settlement rules are unavailable, do not infer arbitrage or fair probability.
  • If only user-provided odds are available, label the evidence as user supplied.
优先使用可用的LLMQuant Data。工作流可能需要以下数据能力：
  • 获取事件合约、结算标准、市场赔率、订单簿深度、交易量、费用及截止日期。
  • 获取相关新闻、宏观数据发布、资产价格以及发行方或行业背景信息。
  • 获取可用的期权隐含概率、波动率、偏度及事件窗口定价。
  • 在保留时间戳和结算规则差异的前提下，对比不同场所、合约及结果集。
Fallback方案：
  • 若市场数据或结算规则不可用，请勿推断套利机会或公允概率。
  • 若仅用户提供的赔率可用，请将该证据标记为用户提供。