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longbridge-dcf

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Original

English
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Translation

Chinese

longbridge-dcf

longbridge-dcf

Build a step-by-step DCF model for any listed company using Longbridge financial data, arriving at an intrinsic value per share and margin of safety versus the current price.
Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.
利用Longbridge金融数据为任意上市公司构建分步式DCF模型，得出每股内在价值以及与当前股价对比的安全边际。
回复语言: 匹配用户输入语言——简体中文/繁体中文/英文。

When to use

适用场景

  • "帮我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值", "run a DCF on AAPL", "幫我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值"
  • "NVDA 内在价值是多少", "what is NVDA's intrinsic value"
  • "用现金流折现算一下茅台", "discounted cash flow for Maotai"
  • "WACC 怎么计算", "how do I calculate WACC for this stock"
  • "给我算安全边际", "margin of safety vs intrinsic value"
For valuation multiples (PE/PB/EV-EBITDA), use 
longbridge-valuation
. For methodology overview, use 
longbridge-valuation-methodology
.
  • "帮我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值", "run a DCF on AAPL", "幫我做 AAPL 的 DCF 估值"
  • "NVDA 内在价值是多少", "what is NVDA's intrinsic value"
  • "用现金流折现算一下茅台", "discounted cash flow for Maotai"
  • "WACC 怎么计算", "how do I calculate WACC for this stock"
  • "给我算安全边际", "margin of safety vs intrinsic value"
若需估值倍数（PE/PB/EV-EBITDA），请使用
longbridge-valuation
。若需方法概述，请使用
longbridge-valuation-methodology
。

Workflow

工作流程

Step 1 — Fetch raw financial data

步骤1 — 获取原始财务数据

bash
undefined
bash
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Cash flow statement (FCF inputs)

Cash flow statement (FCF inputs)

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json

Income statement (revenue growth, margins)

Income statement (revenue growth, margins)

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json

Beta and market cap for WACC

Beta and market cap for WACC

longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

Run `longbridge financial-report --help` and `longbridge calc-index --help` to verify available flags.
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

运行`longbridge financial-report --help`和`longbridge calc-index --help`查看可用参数。

Step 2 — Calculate historical FCF

步骤2 — 计算历史自由现金流（FCF）

FCF = Operating Cash Flow − Capital Expenditure
Extract the last 3–5 years of operating cash flow and capex from the CF statement. Compute FCF for each year and derive the compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
FCF = Operating Cash Flow − Capital Expenditure
从现金流量表中提取过去3–5年的经营现金流和资本支出，计算每年的FCF并得出复合年增长率（CAGR）。

Step 3 — Project FCF

步骤3 — 预测FCF

Use a two-stage model:
  • Stage 1 (years 1–5): Apply an analyst-estimated or CAGR-derived growth rate. Ask the user if they want a bull / base / bear case.
  • Stage 2 (terminal): Apply a long-run growth rate 
    g
    (default: GDP growth rate of the company's primary market, typically 2–4%).
采用两阶段模型：
  • 第一阶段（第1–5年）：应用分析师预估或基于CAGR得出的增长率。询问用户是否需要乐观/中性/悲观情景。
  • 第二阶段（终值阶段）：应用长期增长率
    g
    （默认值：公司主要市场的GDP增长率，通常为2–4%）。

Step 4 — Estimate WACC

步骤4 — 估算加权平均资本成本（WACC）

WACC = Wd × Rd × (1 − t) + We × Re
Re  = Rf + β × ERP
InputSource
Beta (β)
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
Risk-free rate (Rf)10-year government bond yield of primary market (US: ~4.2%, CN: ~2.3%, HK: ~4.0%)
Equity risk premium (ERP)Damodaran country ERP (US: ~4.6%, CN: ~7%, HK: ~6%)
Debt ratio (Wd)From balance sheet (total debt / (total debt + market cap))
Cost of debt (Rd)Interest expense / total debt from IS + BS
Tax rate (t)Effective tax rate from IS
WACC = Wd × Rd × (1 − t) + We × Re
Re  = Rf + β × ERP
输入项来源
Beta (β)
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
无风险利率（Rf）主要市场10年期政府债券收益率（美国：约4.2%，中国：约2.3%，中国香港：约4.0%）
股权风险溢价（ERP）Damodaran国家股权风险溢价（美国：约4.6%，中国：约7%，中国香港：约6%）
债务比率（Wd）资产负债表（总债务/(总债务+市值)）
债务成本（Rd）利润表+资产负债表中的利息支出/总债务
税率（t）利润表中的有效税率

Step 5 — Terminal value

步骤5 — 终值

TV = FCF₅ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
Common alternative: exit multiple method — apply an EV/EBITDA multiple consistent with mature peers.
TV = FCF₅ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
常用替代方法：退出倍数法——应用与成熟同行一致的EV/EBITDA倍数。

Step 6 — Intrinsic value

步骤6 — 内在价值

  1. Discount each projected FCF to present value at WACC.
  2. Discount terminal value to present value.
  3. Sum all PVs → Enterprise Value.
  4. Subtract net debt; add cash → Equity Value.
  5. Divide by diluted shares outstanding → Intrinsic Value per Share.
  1. 以WACC为折现率，将每笔预测FCF折现至现值。
  2. 将终值折现至现值。
  3. 求和所有现值→企业价值。
  4. 减去净债务；加上现金→股权价值。
  5. 除以稀释后流通股数→每股内在价值。

Step 7 — Margin of safety

步骤7 — 安全边际

Margin of Safety = (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) / Intrinsic Value × 100%
Positive = undervalued; negative = overvalued. Show sensitivity table for ±1% WACC and ±1% terminal growth.
Margin of Safety = (Intrinsic Value − Current Price) / Intrinsic Value × 100%
正值=被低估；负值=被高估。展示WACC±1%和终值增长率±1%的敏感性表格。

CLI

命令行界面（CLI）

bash
longbridge financial-report --help
longbridge calc-index --help

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
bash
longbridge financial-report --help
longbridge calc-index --help

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

Output

输出结果

Present results as:
  1. Historical FCF table (3–5 years).
  2. Projected FCF table (5 years, 3 scenarios if requested).
  3. WACC components breakdown.
  4. Intrinsic value per share.
  5. Margin of safety vs current price.
  6. Sensitivity matrix (WACC × terminal growth rate).
  7. Key assumptions and caveats.
Always include a disclaimer: DCF is highly sensitive to assumptions; treat output as a range, not a precise target.
结果呈现形式：
  1. 历史FCF表格（3–5年）。
  2. 预测FCF表格（5年，若请求则提供3种情景）。
  3. WACC组成部分细分。
  4. 每股内在价值。
  5. 安全边际与当前股价对比。
  6. 敏感性矩阵（WACC × 终值增长率）。
  7. 关键假设与注意事项。
始终包含免责声明：DCF模型对假设高度敏感；请将输出视为范围值，而非精确目标。

Error handling

错误处理

Situation简体回复繁體回覆English reply
command not found: longbridge
请安装 longbridge-terminal 或检查 MCP 配置。請安裝 longbridge-terminal 或檢查 MCP 配置。Install longbridge-terminal or check MCP config.
stderr: 
not logged in
请运行 
longbridge auth login
。		請執行 
longbridge auth login
。		Run 
longbridge auth login
.
No CF data available该标的暂无现金流数据，可能是上市不足三年或非标准财报。該標的暫無現金流數據，可能是上市不足三年。No cash flow data; the company may be too recently listed or use non-standard reporting.
Negative FCF history历史 FCF 为负，DCF 模型需用户提供未来盈利假设。歷史 FCF 為負，需用戶提供未來盈利假設。Historical FCF is negative; DCF requires user-supplied future profitability assumptions.
场景简体回复繁體回覆English reply
command not found: longbridge
请安装 longbridge-terminal 或检查 MCP 配置。請安裝 longbridge-terminal 或檢查 MCP 配置。Install longbridge-terminal or check MCP config.
stderr: 
not logged in
请运行 
longbridge auth login
。		請執行 
longbridge auth login
。		Run 
longbridge auth login
.
No CF data available该标的暂无现金流数据，可能是上市不足三年或非标准财报。該標的暫無現金流數據，可能是上市不足三年。No cash flow data; the company may be too recently listed or use non-standard reporting.
Negative FCF history历史 FCF 为负，DCF 模型需用户提供未来盈利假设。歷史 FCF 為負，需用戶提供未來盈利假設。Historical FCF is negative; DCF requires user-supplied future profitability assumptions.

Related skills

相关技能

  • longbridge-valuation-methodology
    — method selection guide
  • longbridge-valuation
    — current PE/PB/EV-EBITDA snapshot
  • longbridge-fundamental
    — revenue / EPS / margin KPIs
  • longbridge-financial-report
    — detailed financial statements
  • longbridge-valuation-methodology
    — 方法选择指南
  • longbridge-valuation
    — 当前PE/PB/EV-EBITDA快照
  • longbridge-fundamental
    — 营收/EPS/利润率关键指标
  • longbridge-financial-report
    — 详细财务报表

File layout

文件结构

skills/longbridge-dcf/
└── SKILL.md
skills/longbridge-dcf/
└── SKILL.md