pm-assumption-mapping

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Assumption Mapping & Hypothesis Testing

假设映射与假设测试

Frameworks for identifying, prioritizing, and testing product assumptions.

用于识别、排序和测试产品假设的框架。

Riskiest Assumption Test (RAT)

最高风险假设测试（RAT）

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Assumption Map

假设地图

Desirability (Will they want it?)

吸引力（用户是否需要？）

Assumption	Evidence For	Evidence Against	Risk Level
[Users want X]	[data]	[data]	High/Med/Low

假设	支持证据	反对证据	风险等级
[Users want X]	[data]	[data]	High/Med/Low

Viability (Will it work for the business?)

商业可行性（对业务是否可行？）

Assumption	Evidence For	Evidence Against	Risk Level
[Users will pay $X]	[data]	[data]	High/Med/Low

假设	支持证据	反对证据	风险等级
[Users will pay $X]	[data]	[data]	High/Med/Low

Feasibility (Can we build it?)

技术可行性（我们能否实现？）

Assumption	Evidence For	Evidence Against	Risk Level
[We can integrate with X]	[data]	[data]	High/Med/Low

假设	支持证据	反对证据	风险等级
[We can integrate with X]	[data]	[data]	High/Med/Low

Riskiest Assumption to Test Next

接下来要测试的最高风险假设

Assumption: [The one with highest risk + least evidence] Test: [Cheapest way to validate/invalidate] Success Criteria: [Specific threshold] Timeline: [Days/weeks]

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假设： [风险最高且证据最少的假设] 测试方式： [验证/推翻假设的最低成本方式] 成功标准： [具体阈值] 时间线： [天数/周数]

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Product Hypothesis Format

产品假设格式

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Hypothesis: [Short name]

假设：[简短名称]

We believe that [building this feature/making this change] For [target user segment] Will result in [expected outcome/behavior change] We will know we're right when [measurable success criteria]

我们认为 [开发该功能/做出此变更] 针对 [目标用户群体] 将带来 [预期结果/行为变化] 当出现以下情况时我们就验证了假设 [可衡量的成功标准]

Riskiest Assumption

最高风险假设

[The assumption that if wrong, invalidates the hypothesis]

[若不成立则会推翻整个假设的核心假设]

Minimum Test

最小化测试

[Cheapest/fastest way to validate]

Type: [Prototype/Fake door/Concierge/etc]
Duration: [X days/weeks]
Sample size: [N users]

[验证假设的最低成本/最快方式]

类型：[Prototype/Fake door/Concierge/etc]
时长：[X days/weeks]
样本量：[N users]

Decision Criteria

决策标准

Ship if: [specific threshold met]
Iterate if: [mixed signals, specify]
Kill if: [specific threshold not met]

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上线条件： [达到具体阈值]
迭代条件： [信号模糊，具体说明]
终止条件： [未达到具体阈值]

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Test Types by Assumption

按假设类型划分的测试类型

Assumption Type	Test Method	Timeline
Desirability	Fake door, landing page	Days
Usability	Prototype testing	Days
Value	Concierge MVP	Weeks
Feasibility	Technical spike	Days
Viability	Pre-sales, LOIs	Weeks

假设类型	测试方法	时间线
吸引力	假门测试、落地页	数天
易用性	原型测试	数天
价值	礼宾式MVP	数周
技术可行性	技术探索	数天
商业可行性	预售、意向书（LOIs）	数周

Assumption Prioritization

假设优先级排序

Priority = Risk Level × Impact if Wrong × Cost to Test (inverse)

Test assumptions that are:

High risk (least evidence)
High impact (invalidates entire concept)
Low cost to test (quick experiments)

优先级 = 风险等级 × 不成立时的影响程度 × 测试成本（倒数）

优先测试以下类型的假设：

高风险（证据最少）
高影响（会推翻整个概念）
测试成本低（快速实验）