premortem

Compare original and translation side by side

🇺🇸

Original

English

🇨🇳

Chinese

Imagine the plan has completely failed, then work backward to identify what went wrong and how to prevent it.

假设计划已彻底失败，再逆向推导找出问题所在及预防方法。

Set the scene: "It's [timeframe] in the future. This initiative was a complete disaster. Looking back, what happened?"

Generate failure scenarios without filtering for likelihood—get everything on the table first, then prioritize.

设定场景："现在是未来的[某个时间点]。这项举措彻底失败了。回头看，问题出在哪里？"

先不受可能性限制地列举失败场景——先把所有可能都摆出来，再进行优先级排序。

The Plan Summarize what's being attempted and the success criteria.

Time Jump "It's [X months] later. This has failed completely. The outcome: [describe the disaster vividly]."

What Went Wrong

Generate 8-12 plausible failure causes across categories:

Risk Prioritization

Failure Mode	Likelihood	Impact	Priority
...	High/Med/Low	High/Med/Low	1-5

Top 3 Risks & Mitigations

For each top risk:

Pre-Mortem Insights What did this exercise reveal that wasn't obvious before?

Revised Confidence After this analysis, how confident are you in success? What would increase confidence?

计划内容 概述当前尝试推进的事项及成功标准。

时间跳转 "[X个月]后，这项举措彻底失败了。最终结果：[生动描述失败的具体情况]。"

问题根源 从以下类别中生成8-12个合理的失败原因：

风险优先级排序

失败模式	发生概率	影响程度	优先级
...	高/中/低	高/中/低	1-5

Top 3风险及应对措施

针对每个顶级风险：

事前验尸分析洞察 本次分析揭示了哪些之前未被发现的问题？

修订后的信心指数 经过本次分析，你对成功的信心如何？哪些因素能提升信心？

Be vivid and specific—"the database corrupted" not "something went wrong"
Include uncomfortable possibilities (key person leaves, competitor moves, we were wrong)
Don't filter for "that won't happen"—the point is to surface hidden concerns
Assign real owners to mitigations
Look for single points of failure

$ARGUMENTS

$ARGUMENTS