Market Validation Meta-Skill

Overview

Use this meta-skill to validate or audit market claims. It supports both pre-plan field validation and post-draft evidence review so market logic is grounded in real customer signal rather than narrative convenience.

Use When

Use before writing when market assumptions still need field validation.
Use after drafting when market claims need an evidence audit.
Use when the plan's credibility depends on proving demand and customer behaviour.

Do Not Use When

Do not use to launder speculation into “validated” language.
Do not treat desk research alone as customer validation.
Do not keep validating forever when a clear decision can already be made.

Required Inputs

Business idea, offer, and target-customer assumptions
Existing market evidence, customer conversations, or draft claims
Country, sector, and channel context where behaviour matters
Adjacent market, target-market, and sales sections where consistency matters

Workflow

Decide whether the task is pre-plan validation or post-plan auditing.
Identify the market assumptions or claims that matter most.
Gather or test evidence against those claims.
Distinguish validated findings from hypotheses and weak signals.
Reconcile the results with the plan's narrative and numbers.
Flag unsupported claims that should be revised or removed.

Quality Bar

The output clearly separates evidence from assumption.
Validation work is targeted at decisions that matter.
Weak claims are surfaced rather than buried.
Findings improve the plan's credibility and focus.

Anti-Patterns

Using anecdote as proof of market demand.
Auditing market claims without checking their financial implications.
Equating interest with purchasing behaviour.
Leaving unsupported claims in place because they “sound strategic”.

Outputs

A validation plan, evidence audit, or market-claim review
Clear distinction between validated facts and open assumptions
Recommended revisions or next tests

When to Use

Mode A Pre-Plan Field Validation: Before writing the business plan. Use when the entrepreneur has an idea but hasn't yet validated it with real customers. Guides systematic assumption-testing.

Mode B Post-Plan Claim Auditing: After sections 04-07 are complete. Reviews market claims and flags unsupported assertions before investors do.

Both modes can be used sequentially: validate first, write the plan, then audit the plan.

Mode A: Pre-Plan Field Validation

Core Philosophy

"A startup is a temporary organisation in search of a scalable, repeatable, profitable business model" (Blank & Dorf, 2012). Business plans are collections of untested hypotheses. Customer Development converts hypotheses into facts through systematic testing.

The 14th rule: There are no facts inside your building get outside.

Step 1: Classify the Venture's Problem Recognition Level

Before designing validation activities, assess where target customers sit on the Problem Recognition Scale (Blank & Dorf, 2012):

Level	Customer State	Validation Approach
Latent	Have the problem but don't know it	Education-first; validate that the problem exists
Passive	Know the problem but aren't motivated to change	Validate pain severity; quantify cost of inaction
Active	Searching for a solution with a timetable	Validate solution fit; test willingness to pay
Vision	Have cobbled together a workaround	Validate that your solution is better than their hack

Step 2: Identify Earlyvangelists

Find customers with all five characteristics (Blank & Dorf, 2012):

They have a problem or need
They understand they have a problem
They're actively searching for a solution with a timetable
The problem is so painful they've cobbled together an interim solution
They've committed or can quickly acquire budget to purchase

Step 3: Map Stakeholders

Use three concentric rings (Alam):

Target 1-3 primary beneficiaries/users
Connected payers, implementers, gatekeepers who directly influence
Influenced community, regulators, adjacent businesses indirectly affected

Step 4: Conduct Empathy-Based Research

Follow the 8-category interview guide (Alam): Introduction Jobs to Be Done Customers Challenges Aspirations Stories Emotions Conclusion.

Key engagement rules:

Ask "whySection " repeatedly
Encourage stories ("Tell me about the last time...")
Look for inconsistencies between words and actions
Embrace silence don't fill pauses
Never suggest solutions during the interview

Build Empathy Maps: Observations Interpretations Insights. See

references/empathy-validation-tools.md

Step 5: Apply Rapid Validation

Use Kagan's Golden Rule: Find 3 paying customers in 48 hours.

Three validation methods:

Direct preselling use the LOT framework (Listen-Options-Transition)
Marketplaces post on Facebook Marketplace, local forums, WhatsApp groups
Landing pages simple page with price and buy button

Structure offers using the Price + Benefit + Time formula:

"For [price], I will [benefit] in [time]."

When rejected, use the 4-question script: Why notSection Who elseSection What would make it a no-brainerSection What would you paySection

See

references/rapid-validation-methods.md

Step 6: Document and Track Assumptions

Use the Assumptions Tracking Template (Alam):

Classify each assumption as Minor / Major / Critical
Assign owner and due date
Track status: New In Progress Validated / Disproved

Calculate Risk Score:

(Minor  1) + (Major  5) + (Critical  25)

. Target: below 100.

Step 7: Test the Solution (MVP)

Follow the MVP Evolution Model (Cooper & Vlaskovits, 2010):

Stage	Interaction	Objective	Currency
MVP 1	Landing page / concept	Test problem resonance	Attention
MVP 2	Demo / prototype	Test solution approach	Commitment
MVP 3	Working product	Test willingness to pay	Money

Evaluate each capability using the BFCE framework (Alam): Better (quality)Section Faster (efficiency)Section Cheaper (cost)Section Easier (experience)Section

Step 8: Measure Product-Market Fit

Three-criteria test (Cooper & Vlaskovits, 2010):

Customer willing to pay
Cost of acquisition < revenue per customer
Sufficient evidence market is large enough

Sean Ellis 40% Rule: If 40% of users say they'd be "very disappointed" without the product, you have product-market fit.

Step 9: Pivot or Proceed

Apply the three-question test (Blank & Dorf, 2012):

**Can it scaleSection ** $1 in acquisition produces > $1 in revenueSection
**Is there a repeatable sales roadmapSection ** Can others replicate the sales processSection
**Is the funnel predictableSection ** Can you forecast conversion at each stageSection

If any answer is no, pivot (change one or more Business Model Canvas boxes) and return to Step 4. See

references/customer-development-process.md

for pivot methodology.

Quick Validation Checklist

Before writing the business plan, the entrepreneur should have validated:

The problem exists and is painful (not a vitamin a painkiller)
Target customers are identifiable and reachable
At least 3 customers have paid or committed to pay
Pricing is based on value-based testing, not guesswork
The market is growing (Google Trends or equivalent check)
TAM/SAM is calculated bottom-up, not just top-down
Key assumptions are tracked with impact classifications
Risk Score is below 100 (or declining)
MVP has been tested with real users
Product-market fit evidence exists (Ellis 40% or equivalent)

Mode B: Post-Plan Claim Auditing

Audit the market-facing sections of the business plan (sections 04-07) to ensure claims are defensible and data-backed.

What to Validate

1. Market Size Validation

Is TAM calculated using credible methodology (bottom-up preferred)Section
Is SAM a logical subset of TAM with clear narrowing criteriaSection
Is SOM realistic (typically 1-5% of SAM for startups)Section
Are market size sources cited and current (within 2 years)Section
Does bottom-up calculation align with top-downSection
What is the market type: existing, new, re-segmented, or cloneSection (Blank & Dorf, 2012)

2. Growth Rate Validation

Are growth projections supported by historical dataSection
Is the cited CAGR from a reputable sourceSection
Are growth assumptions consistent with the market typeSection (New markets take 3-7 years; existing markets grow incrementally)
Is the business growing faster than the marketSection If so, whySection

3. Customer Assumption Validation

Are customer personas based on research or assumptionsSection
Were earlyvangelists identified and interviewedSection
Is the CAC estimate grounded in comparable dataSection
Is the CLV calculation realistic given churn assumptionsSection
Is the CLV:CAC ratio defensible (>3:1)Section
Has the Problem Recognition Scale been assessedSection

4. Competitive Positioning Validation

Are all relevant competitors identified (direct, indirect, substitutes)Section
Is the market type acknowledged, and does competitive strategy matchSection
Are competitive advantages genuinely sustainableSection
Are competitor weaknesses based on evidence, not wishful thinkingSection
Has cost-of-entry been assessedSection (74%+ = monopoly, 41%+ = leader, 26%+ = unstable, <26% = open; Blank & Dorf, 2012)

5. Pricing Validation

Is pricing consistent with the value propositionSection
Was pricing tested with real customers (value-based approach)Section
How does pricing compare to competitors and workaroundsSection
Does the pricing model support the revenue projectionsSection
Have the Six Revenue Dials been consideredSection (Kagan, 2024)

6. Validation Evidence Check (new)

Did the plan authors conduct Customer Development activitiesSection
Is there evidence of customer interviews, surveys, or presellingSection
Are assumptions documented with validation statusSection
Is the Risk Score reported and acceptableSection
Has product-market fit been measuredSection

Claim-by-Claim Output Format

For each claim reviewed:

Claim: [The specific assertion]
Source: [Where it appears in the plan]
Evidence: [Supporting data found]
Validation Method Used: [Interview / Preselling / Survey / Secondary research / None]
Status: VALIDATED / NEEDS EVIDENCE / UNSUPPORTED / CONTRADICTED
Action: [What to do  cite source, conduct research, revise claim]

Validation Summary Dashboard

Area	Claims	Validated	Needs Evidence	Unsupported	Critical Issues
Market size	X	X	X	X	[List]
Growth rates	X	X	X	X	[List]
Customer data	X	X	X	X	[List]
Competition	X	X	X	X	[List]
Pricing	X	X	X	X	[List]
Validation evidence	X	X	X	X	[List]

Generation Process

Mode A (Pre-Plan)

Classify the venture's problem recognition level
Identify earlyvangelists and map stakeholders
Design and conduct empathy-based research
Apply rapid validation (Golden Rule: 3 customers/48 hours)
Document assumptions with impact classifications
Build and test MVP through the evolution model
Measure product-market fit
Decide: pivot or proceed
Compile validated findings as input for business plan writing

Mode B (Post-Plan)

Review sections 04-07 and extract all factual claims
Categorise each claim (market size, growth, customer, competitive, pricing, validation evidence)
Assess evidence for each claim, including Customer Development evidence
Flag unsupported or contradicted claims
Suggest validation methods for gaps (preselling, interviews, pilot tests, marketplace tests)
Produce validation summary dashboard

Quality Criteria

Every factual claim is assessed, not just the obvious ones
Validation is objective does not rubber-stamp weak claims
The 9 Deadly Sins are actively checked for (Blank & Dorf, 2012)
Premature scaling warnings are flagged aggressively
Suggested validation methods are practical and affordable for the Ugandan context
Critical issues are highlighted with urgency
Risk Score trajectory is tracked if assumptions data is available

References

```
references/customer-development-process.md
```
Blank/Dorf's 4-step Customer Development, 14 rules, 9 Deadly Sins, pivot methodology, Business Model Canvas as scorecard
```
references/customer-discovery-steps.md
```
Cooper/Vlaskovits' 8-step Customer Discovery, C-P-S hypotheses, Funnel Matrix, Value Path, Business Ecosystem Mapping, outreach templates, MVP Evolution Model, product-market fit measurement
```
references/rapid-validation-methods.md
```
Kagan's Golden Rule, LOT framework, Dream Ten List, Price+Benefit+Time formula, Rejection Script, validation methods, One-Minute Business Model, Six Revenue Dials, Content Circle Framework
```
references/empathy-validation-tools.md
```
Alam's Transform3+1, stakeholder mapping, empathy research, persona template, journey mapping, BFCE framework, user testing methodology, Assumptions Tracking, Risk Score formula, elevator pitch templates
```
references/mckinsey-problem-solving.md
```
McKinsey's MECE principle (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive) with worked examples; issue tree construction and branching rules; hypothesis-driven analysis (Initial Hypothesis method, three-step generation, insurance leakage anecdote); 80/20 rule as diagnostic jump-start; key drivers framework; fact-based analysis; Forces at Work four-category environmental scan (suppliers/customers/competitors/substitutes); elevator test; presentation structure (one message per chart, prewiring); 10 common analysis mistakes Source: Rasiel (McGraw-Hill). Read when structuring any analytical section (market analysis, competitive analysis, risk), when building issue trees, or when auditing claims for MECE compliance and fact-based support.
72-tool business analysis toolkit: See
```
references/business-analysis-techniques-cadle.md
```
for all 72 BA tools grouped by stage (strategy, investigation, stakeholder analysis, process modelling, options evaluation, change management), a business plan application table mapping each category to plan sections, and Uganda/EA contextualisation notes Source: Cadle, Paul & Turner (BCS, 2010). Read when structuring a market investigation, designing stakeholder analysis, building process models for the operations plan, evaluating options with CBA/NPV, or auditing a plan's analytical rigour against a structured toolkit.

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