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Chinese

Market and Competition Analysis

市场与竞争分析

Use $ARGUMENTS as initial context.
使用$ARGUMENTS作为初始上下文。

When to use this skill

何时使用此技能

  • Market entry or expansion decisions.
  • Competitive positioning or response planning.
  • Product or GTM strategy requiring market evidence.
  • Cases where market assumptions must be made explicit and testable.
  • 市场进入或扩张决策。
  • 竞争定位或应对规划。
  • 需要市场证据支撑的产品或GTM战略。
  • 需要明确市场假设并对其进行验证的场景。

Required inputs

所需输入

  • Market definition and geographic scope.
  • Decision to support and required depth.
  • Available internal/external data and timeline.
  • 市场定义与地理范围。
  • 待支撑的决策以及所需分析深度。
  • 可用的内外部数据以及时间周期。

Workflow

工作流

  1. Define market boundary, customer segments, and time horizon.
  2. Triangulate TAM/SAM/SOM using top-down and bottom-up methods.
  3. Build competitor set including substitutes and adjacent threats.
  4. Compare value propositions, pricing, channels, and capability signals.
  5. Rate uncertainty of assumptions and develop base vs stressed scenarios.
  6. Deliver implications, risks, and next analytical moves.
  1. 明确市场边界、客户分层以及时间范围。
  2. 采用自上而下和自下而上的方法对TAM/SAM/SOM进行三角验证。
  3. 构建竞品池，包含替代产品与相邻领域威胁。
  4. 对比价值主张、定价、渠道以及能力信号。
  5. 评估假设的不确定性，制定基准场景与压力测试场景。
  6. 输出影响分析、风险以及后续分析步骤。

Ask-first questions

优先提问项

Ask up to 3 questions before sizing:
  1. Which strategic decision must this analysis support?
  2. What market definition is non-negotiable for this decision?
  3. Which data sources are considered reliable by stakeholders?
在开展规模测算前最多提出3个问题：
  1. 本次分析需要支撑哪项战略决策？
  2. 对于该决策而言，哪些市场定义是不可调整的？
  3. 利益相关方认为哪些数据源是可靠的？

Assumption policy

假设规则

  • Proceed with assumptions when data is incomplete.
  • Mark each key assumption with confidence and sensitivity.
  • Separate observed facts from inferred estimates.
  • 数据不完整时可基于假设继续推进。
  • 为每个关键假设标注置信度与敏感度。
  • 将观测到的事实与推断估算的内容分开。

Output contract

输出约定

Always produce these sections in order:
  1. Context
  2. Decision or Recommendation
  3. Analysis
  4. Risks
  5. Next Actions
  6. Assumptions
始终按顺序包含以下板块：
  1. 背景
  2. 决策或建议
  3. 分析内容
  4. 风险
  5. 后续行动
  6. 假设

Guardrails

约束规则

  • Do not present single-point market size without method disclosure.
  • Include at least one substitute threat in competitor mapping.
  • Distinguish strategic implication from raw market observation.
  • Flag scenario sensitivity when assumptions materially shift conclusion.
  • 不得在未披露测算方法的情况下给出单一确定的市场规模数值。
  • 竞品图谱中至少包含一项替代产品威胁。
  • 区分战略影响与原始市场观测结果。
  • 当假设会显著改变结论时，标注场景敏感度。

Resources

资源

  • references/market-frameworks.md
    - Framework selection and triangulation rules.
  • references/competitor-profile.md
    - Competitor signal checklist.
  • templates/market-competition-analysis.md
    - Decision-ready output template.
  • examples/market-competition-example.md
    - Golden example with uncertainty tagging.
  • references/market-frameworks.md
    - 框架选择与三角验证规则。
  • references/competitor-profile.md
    - 竞品信号核对清单。
  • templates/market-competition-analysis.md
    - 可直接用于决策的输出模板。
  • examples/market-competition-example.md
    - 标注了不确定性的参考范例。

Keywords

关键词

market sizing, TAM SAM SOM, competition analysis, positioning, strategy, Porter, substitutes
市场规模测算, TAM SAM SOM, 竞争分析, 定位, 战略, Porter, 替代产品