intelligent-investor-graham

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Overview

概述

This skill encodes Benjamin Graham's framework from The Intelligent Investor (Revised Edition, 1973). It supports individual investors making decisions about stock valuation, portfolio allocation, and the psychology of market fluctuations. Designed for both defensive (passive) investors seeking safety and income, and enterprising (active) investors seeking superior returns through analysis.

本技能编码了本杰明·格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》（1973年修订版）中提出的框架，支持个人投资者做出股票估值、资产配置以及应对市场波动心理的决策。该技能既适用于追求安全性和收益的防御型（被动）投资者，也适用于通过分析寻求超额回报的进取型（主动）投资者。

When to Use This Skill

何时使用该技能

User asks whether a specific stock is worth buying or fairly valued
User asks whether they are investing or speculating
User asks how to respond to a market decline or crash
User asks how to construct or rebalance a portfolio
User asks whether to sell after a large price drop or buy after a rise
User asks about margin of safety, P/E ratios, or book value in an investment context
User wants to screen stocks for a conservative, long-term portfolio

用户询问某只特定股票是否值得购买或估值合理
用户询问自己的行为属于投资还是投机
用户询问如何应对市场下跌或崩盘
用户询问如何构建或再平衡投资组合
用户询问在大幅下跌后是否卖出或上涨后是否买入
用户在投资场景中询问安全边际、P/E比率或账面价值相关问题
用户想要为保守型长期投资组合筛选股票

Core Principle

核心原则

Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. A stock is an ownership interest in a real business; its value derives from the business's earning power, not from the market's daily quotation. The intelligent investor buys at prices that provide a demonstrable margin of safety — a gap between price paid and underlying value — that absorbs miscalculations and bad luck. Speculation is not immoral, but it must be recognized as such and kept strictly separate from investment.

**最具智慧的投资是最具商业思维的投资。**股票代表对真实企业的所有权，其价值源于企业的盈利能力，而非市场每日报价。聪明的投资者会在价格提供明确安全边际的情况下买入——即支付价格与内在价值之间存在差距，这个差距可以抵消误判和坏运气的影响。投机并非不道德，但必须明确区分投机与投资。

DIMENSION 1: Investment vs. Speculation

维度1：投资 vs. 投机

The Rule: An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Everything else is speculation.

**规则：**投资操作是指经过全面分析后，承诺本金安全且回报充足的操作。除此之外的所有操作均为投机。

Key questions to ask:

关键问题：

Has the purchase been preceded by thorough analysis of the business?
Is the principal reasonably protected against permanent loss?
Is the expected return adequate relative to risk taken?
Is the buyer using borrowed money (margin)? If yes → speculative by definition.
Is the buyer relying primarily on price momentum rather than business value?

买入前是否对企业进行了全面分析？
本金是否能合理避免永久性损失？
预期回报相对于所承担的风险是否充足？
买家是否使用了杠杆资金（保证金）？如果是→从定义上属于投机。
买家是否主要依赖价格动量而非企业价值？

Decision criteria / Checklist:

决策标准/检查清单：

✅ Investment: analysis-driven, safety of principal, adequate return
✅ Investment: buying an established business at a known discount to value
❌ Speculation: buying because price went up (momentum)
❌ Speculation: buying a "hot" IPO or recently promoted issue
❌ Speculation: buying on margin without business analysis
❌ Speculation: relying on market timing or forecasting rather than valuation

✅ 投资：基于分析、本金安全、回报充足
✅ 投资：以低于已知价值的折扣价买入成熟企业
❌ 投机：因价格上涨而买入（动量驱动）
❌ 投机：买入热门IPO或近期被炒作的标的
❌ 投机：未进行企业分析就使用保证金买入
❌ 投机：依赖市场择时或预测而非估值

Warning signals:

警示信号：

Believing you are investing when you are actually speculating
Mixing speculative and investment funds in the same account
Adding money to a speculative position because prices are rising
Using recent market gains as justification for higher risk-taking

误以为自己在投资，实则在投机
在同一账户中混合投机资金与投资资金
因价格上涨而追加投机仓位资金
将近期市场收益作为承担更高风险的理由

Agent instruction:

Agent指令：

When a user describes a purchase decision, first classify it as investment or speculation by checking: (1) Was thorough analysis done? (2) Is principal protected? (3) Is the expected return adequate? If any answer is no, label the operation speculation and warn clearly before proceeding with further analysis.

当用户描述买入决策时，首先通过以下三点判断其属于投资还是投机：(1) 是否进行了全面分析？(2) 本金是否安全？(3) 预期回报是否充足？如果任何一个问题的答案是否定的，就将该操作标记为投机，并在进一步分析前明确发出警告。

DIMENSION 2: The Mr. Market Mental Model

维度2：市场先生心智模型

The Rule: The stock market is an obliging but emotionally unstable business partner who offers to buy or sell your interest every day — use his irrational moods to your advantage; never let them determine your view of value.

**规则：**股票市场是一个殷勤但情绪不稳定的商业伙伴，每天都提出买入或卖出你所持权益的报价——利用他的非理性情绪为自己谋利；绝不要让他的情绪决定你对价值的判断。

Key questions to ask:

关键问题：

Is the current price driven by business fundamentals or by market sentiment?
Is Mr. Market currently in a state of fear (depressing prices) or greed (inflating them)?
Can you calculate an independent estimate of intrinsic value?
Would you feel comfortable owning this business if no market quotation existed?

当前价格是由企业基本面驱动还是市场情绪驱动？
市场先生当前处于恐惧（压低价格）还是贪婪（抬高价格）状态？
你能否独立估算内在价值？
如果没有市场报价，你是否愿意持有这家企业？

Decision criteria / Checklist:

决策标准/检查清单：

Use market prices as an opportunity scanner, not as a valuation authority
Buy from Mr. Market when he is irrationally pessimistic
Sell to Mr. Market when he is irrationally optimistic
Ignore Mr. Market when his price is neither clearly cheap nor clearly expensive
The investor is NEVER forced to sell — this is the core advantage over a speculator

将市场价格视为机会扫描工具，而非估值权威
当市场先生非理性悲观时买入
当市场先生非理性乐观时卖出
当市场先生的价格既不明显便宜也不明显昂贵时忽略他
投资者永远不会被迫卖出——这是相对于投机者的核心优势

Warning signals:

警示信号：

Feeling anxiety or excitement based solely on price movements
Selling a fundamentally sound position because the price declined
Paying more for a stock because its price has recently risen
Letting daily market news drive investment decisions

仅因价格波动而感到焦虑或兴奋
因价格下跌而卖出基本面良好的仓位
因股票近期上涨而支付更高价格
让每日市场新闻驱动投资决策

Agent instruction:

Agent指令：

When a user is reacting to a price movement (a stock fell 30%, market is crashing, stock surged), apply the Mr. Market model: ask whether the underlying business has changed. If not, a price decline is an opportunity, not a threat. Reframe the decision around business value, not price action.

当用户对价格波动做出反应（某只股票下跌30%、市场崩盘、股票暴涨）时，应用市场先生模型：询问企业基本面是否发生变化。如果没有变化，价格下跌是机会而非威胁。围绕企业价值而非价格走势重新构建决策框架。

DIMENSION 3: Defensive Investor Stock Selection (7 Criteria)

维度3：防御型投资者选股（7项标准）

The Rule: The defensive investor should only buy stocks that satisfy all seven quantitative criteria simultaneously — these criteria filter out both unsafe businesses and overpriced securities.

**规则：**防御型投资者应只同时满足所有7项量化标准的股票——这些标准会筛选出不安全的企业和估值过高的证券。

Key questions to ask:

关键问题：

What is the company's annual sales revenue and total asset size?
What is the current ratio (current assets / current liabilities)?
Does long-term debt exceed net current assets?
Has the company earned a profit in each of the past 10 years?
Has the company paid dividends continuously for 20+ years?
Has earnings per share grown at least 1/3 over the past 10 years?
What is the P/E ratio based on the past 3 years' average earnings?
What is the price-to-book value ratio?

公司的年销售收入和总资产规模是多少？
流动比率（流动资产/流动负债）是多少？
长期债务是否超过净流动资产？
公司过去10年是否每年都盈利？
公司是否连续20年以上支付股息？
过去10年每股收益（EPS）是否至少增长了1/3？
基于过去3年平均收益的P/E比率是多少？
市净率（P/B）是多少？

Decision criteria / Checklist:

决策标准/检查清单：

Size: Annual sales ≥ $100M (industrial) or total assets ≥ $50M (utility)
Financial strength: Current ratio ≥ 2.0; long-term debt ≤ net current assets (for industrials); for utilities, debt ≤ 2× equity
Earnings stability: Positive earnings in each of the past 10 years (no deficits)
Dividend record: Uninterrupted dividends for at least 20 consecutive years
Earnings growth: EPS growth ≥ 33% over the past 10 years (using 3-year averages at start and end)
Moderate P/E: Current price ÷ average EPS (past 3 years) ≤ 15
Moderate price-to-book: Price ÷ book value ≤ 1.5; OR (P/E) × (P/B) ≤ 22.5

规模：年销售收入≥1亿美元（工业企业）或总资产≥5000万美元（公用事业企业）
财务实力：流动比率≥2.0；长期债务≤净流动资产（工业企业）；公用事业企业债务≤2×股东权益
盈利稳定性：过去10年每年均为正盈利（无亏损）
股息记录：连续至少20年不间断支付股息
收益增长：过去10年EPS增长≥33%（使用期初和期末的3年平均值）
适度P/E：当前价格÷过去3年平均EPS ≤15
适度市净率：价格÷账面价值 ≤1.5；或（P/E）×（P/B）≤22.5

Warning signals:

警示信号：

P/E above 15 without correspondingly low price-to-book (product > 22.5 is a fail)
Any deficit year in the past decade
Dividend history interrupted by even one year
Current ratio below 2.0 — financial fragility
Rapidly expanding debt not matched by asset growth

P/E超过15且市净率未相应降低（乘积>22.5即为不合格）
过去10年中有任何亏损年份
股息记录中断哪怕一年
流动比率低于2.0——财务脆弱
债务快速扩张但未匹配资产增长

Agent instruction:

Agent指令：

When asked to evaluate a stock for a defensive investor, apply all 7 criteria. Present a pass/fail table for each criterion with the actual figure. A single fail is disqualifying. Stocks that pass all 7 represent suitable defensive investments. If data is incomplete, state clearly what is missing and that the evaluation cannot be completed.

当被要求为防御型投资者评估股票时，应用全部7项标准。呈现每项标准的实际数据及通过/未通过表格。只要有一项未通过，该股票就不合格。通过所有7项标准的股票才适合作为防御型投资标的。如果数据不完整，明确说明缺失的信息，并表示无法完成评估。

DIMENSION 4: Margin of Safety

维度4：安全边际

The Rule: Never buy a security unless the price paid is demonstrably below the appraised value — the gap between price and value is the margin of safety that absorbs errors and adverse events.

**规则：**绝不要买入价格未明显低于评估价值的证券——价格与价值之间的差距就是安全边际，它可以抵消错误和不利事件的影响。

Key questions to ask:

关键问题：

What is the intrinsic or appraised value of this security?
How much below that value is the current price?
Is the margin wide enough to survive a material decline in earnings?
For bonds: does earnings coverage exceed interest charges by 5× or more (historically)?
For stocks: is the earnings yield (E/P) meaningfully above the prevailing bond yield?
Is the discount supported by arithmetic, not by optimistic forecasts?

该证券的内在价值或评估价值是多少？
当前价格比该价值低多少？
安全边际是否足够宽，以承受盈利的大幅下降？
对于债券：历史上盈利覆盖利息费用是否超过5倍？
对于股票：盈利收益率（E/P）是否显著高于当前债券收益率？
折扣是否由数据支撑，而非乐观预测？

Decision criteria / Checklist:

决策标准/检查清单：

Acceptable margin: Price ≤ 2/3 of estimated intrinsic value (for bargain issues)
Earnings yield test: E/P ratio should exceed the current high-grade bond yield
Asset backing: For defensive stocks, price close to or below tangible book value strengthens safety
Diversification multiplies safety: 20+ positions turn individual uncertainty into statistical advantage
Growth premium limit: Even for growth stocks, price must be justifiable by conservative earnings projections, not hoped-for future glory

可接受的安全边际：价格≤估算内在价值的2/3（针对低价标的）
盈利收益率测试：E/P比率应超过当前高等级债券收益率
资产支撑：对于防御型股票，价格接近或低于有形账面价值会增强安全性
多元化提升安全性：20个以上的持仓将个体不确定性转化为统计优势
增长溢价限制：即使是成长型股票，价格也必须基于保守的盈利预测来证明合理性，而非依赖未来的预期辉煌

Warning signals:

警示信号：

Paying today for earnings growth that has not yet materialized
Assuming future prospects can substitute for demonstrated past earning power
Concentrating positions — removes the statistical protection of diversification
Buying quality companies at any price (quality does not equal margin of safety)

为尚未实现的盈利增长买单
假设未来前景可以替代已证明的过往盈利能力
集中持仓——失去多元化的统计保护
以任何价格买入优质公司（优质不等于安全边际）

Agent instruction:

Agent指令：

When asked whether a stock is a good buy, compute the earnings yield (most recent EPS ÷ current price × 100) and compare it to prevailing bond yields. Compute the P/B ratio. Estimate a rough intrinsic value using 15× average 3-year earnings and compare to current price. State the margin of safety explicitly as a percentage discount. If the stock is priced above intrinsic value, say so clearly.

当被问及某只股票是否值得买入时，计算盈利收益率（最近一期EPS÷当前价格×100）并与当前债券收益率比较。计算P/B比率。使用15×过去3年平均EPS估算大致内在价值，并与当前价格比较。明确说明安全边际的折扣百分比。如果股票价格高于内在价值，明确告知。

DIMENSION 5: Portfolio Allocation (Stocks vs. Bonds)

维度5：资产配置（股票 vs. 债券）

The Rule: The defensive investor should always hold a meaningful portion of both stocks and bonds — never less than 25% in either — and adjust the split based on relative valuations, not market forecasts.

**规则：**防御型投资者应始终持有相当比例的股票和债券——两者占比均不低于25%——并根据相对估值而非市场预测调整比例。

Key questions to ask:

关键问题：

What is the current earnings yield on a representative stock index?
What is the current yield on high-grade bonds?
Does the investor need growth (inflation protection) or income (stability)?
Is the investor defensive or enterprising in temperament and time commitment?
Is the overall market level clearly high or clearly reasonable by historical value standards?

代表性股票指数的当前盈利收益率是多少？
当前高等级债券的收益率是多少？
投资者需要增长（通胀保护）还是收益（稳定性）？
投资者的性格和时间投入是防御型还是进取型？
按照历史价值标准，整体市场水平明显偏高还是合理？

Decision criteria / Checklist:

决策标准/检查清单：

Default: 50% stocks / 50% high-grade bonds
Minimum: 25% stocks / 25% bonds (never go below either floor)
Shift toward bonds: When earnings yield on stocks is clearly below bond yields
Shift toward stocks: When stocks are demonstrably cheap relative to bonds and historical valuations
Rebalancing trigger: Restore 50/50 when market moves the ratio by more than 5 percentage points
Dollar-cost averaging: Investing a fixed amount at regular intervals (monthly) produces satisfactory long-run returns even through market cycles

默认配置：50%股票 / 50%高等级债券
最低配置：25%股票 / 25%债券（两者占比均不得低于此下限）
向债券倾斜：当股票盈利收益率明显低于债券收益率时
向股票倾斜：当股票相对于债券和历史估值明显被低估时
再平衡触发条件：当市场波动使比例偏离超过5个百分点时，恢复50/50配置
美元成本平均法：定期（每月）投入固定金额，即使经历市场周期，也能产生令人满意的长期回报

Warning signals:

警示信号：

Moving to 100% stocks or 100% bonds based on a market prediction
Selling all stocks because the market looks high (very likely to miss the subsequent advance)
Treating market timing as a substitute for sound asset allocation
Ignoring inflation risk in a 100% bond portfolio

基于市场预测将配置调整为100%股票或100%债券
因市场看起来偏高而卖出所有股票（很可能错过后续上涨）
将市场择时作为合理资产配置的替代品
在100%债券组合中忽略通胀风险

Agent instruction:

Agent指令：

When asked about portfolio allocation, start by asking the investor's type (defensive vs. enterprising). Recommend the 25/50/75 range system. If the user provides current market yield data, compare stock earnings yield to bond yields to suggest direction of tilt. Never recommend exiting equities entirely. Emphasize rebalancing as a mechanical, emotion-free process.

当被问及资产配置时，首先询问投资者类型（防御型 vs. 进取型）。推荐25/50/75的区间配置体系。如果用户提供当前市场收益率数据，比较股票盈利收益率与债券收益率，建议配置调整方向。绝不建议完全退出股票市场。强调再平衡是一个机械、无情绪的过程。

Query Response Framework

查询响应框架

Query Type 1: "Should I buy [stock X] at [price Y]?"

查询类型1：“我应该以Y价格买入X股票吗？”

Identify investor type: defensive or enterprising?
For defensive investors: Apply all 7 criteria from Dimension 3. Present pass/fail table. If any criterion fails, the stock does not qualify.
For all investors: Calculate earnings yield, P/B ratio, compare to intrinsic value estimate (15× 3-year average EPS). State the margin of safety.
Apply Mr. Market test: Is current price driven by fear, greed, or fundamentals?
Deliver verdict with explicit margin of safety figure.

确定投资者类型：防御型还是进取型？
针对防御型投资者：应用维度3的所有7项标准。呈现通过/未通过表格。如果任何一项标准未通过，该股票不合格。
针对所有投资者：计算盈利收益率、P/B比率，与内在价值估算值（15×过去3年平均EPS）比较。说明安全边际。
应用市场先生测试：当前价格是由恐惧、贪婪还是基本面驱动？
给出包含明确安全边际数值的结论。

Query Type 2: "The market / my stock dropped X%. Should I sell?"

查询类型2：“市场/我的股票下跌了X%。我应该卖出吗？”

Apply Mr. Market model: Has the underlying business changed?
Reassess whether the original investment thesis is intact.
If business is unchanged or improving and price has fallen: this is an opportunity, not a crisis.
If the investor is leveraged or speculating: acknowledge the difference in risk profile.
Remind: the intelligent investor is never forced to sell. Time is the ally of the good business bought at a fair price.

应用市场先生模型：企业基本面是否发生变化？
重新评估最初的投资逻辑是否仍然成立。
如果企业基本面未变或改善，且价格下跌：这是机会而非危机。
如果投资者使用杠杆或进行投机：承认其风险特征的差异。
提醒：聪明的投资者永远不会被迫卖出。时间是以合理价格买入的优质企业的盟友。

Query Type 3: "Am I investing or speculating?"

查询类型3：“我是在投资还是投机？”

Apply Dimension 1 checklist: analysis? principal safety? adequate return?
Check for margin use, momentum motivation, short-term horizon.
Classify clearly as investment or speculation (or mixed).
If speculation: quantify what the investor can afford to lose. Recommend keeping speculative funds strictly separate.

应用维度1的检查清单：是否进行了分析？本金是否安全？回报是否充足？
检查是否使用保证金、是否受动量驱动、是否为短期视野。
明确分类为投资、投机或混合。
如果是投机：量化投资者能承受的损失金额。建议将投机资金严格分开管理。

Query Type 4: "How should I allocate my portfolio?"

查询类型4：“我该如何配置我的投资组合？”

Determine investor type (defensive/enterprising).
Check current valuations: earnings yield vs. bond yields.
Recommend a stocks/bonds split within the 25–75% range.
Recommend index funds or diversified blue-chip stocks for defensive investor.
Emphasize mechanical rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging.

确定投资者类型（防御型/进取型）。
查看当前估值：盈利收益率 vs. 债券收益率。
推荐股票/债券比例在25–75%区间内。
为防御型投资者推荐指数基金或多元化蓝筹股。
强调机械再平衡和美元成本平均法。

Output Format

输出格式

For stock evaluation:

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股票评估输出：

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[Company Name] — Investment Evaluation

[公司名称] — 投资评估

Investor Type: Defensive / Enterprising

投资者类型： 防御型 / 进取型

7-Criteria Checklist (Defensive)

7项标准检查清单（防御型）

Criterion	Required	Actual	Pass/Fail
Size	≥$100M revenue	$XXXm	✅/❌
Current Ratio	≥ 2.0	X.X	✅/❌
Earnings Stability	10 years positive	X years	✅/❌
Dividend Record	20+ years	X years	✅/❌
Earnings Growth	≥ 33% / 10yr	X%	✅/❌
P/E Ratio	≤ 15×	X×	✅/❌
P/B Ratio	≤ 1.5× (or P/E×P/B ≤ 22.5)	X×	✅/❌

标准	要求	实际值	通过/未通过
规模	≥1亿美元营收	XXX百万美元	✅/❌
流动比率	≥ 2.0	X.X	✅/❌
盈利稳定性	10年正盈利	X年	✅/❌
股息记录	20年以上	X年	✅/❌
收益增长	≥ 33% / 10年	X%	✅/❌
P/E比率	≤ 15×	X×	✅/❌
P/B比率	≤ 1.5×（或P/E×P/B ≤ 22.5）	X×	✅/❌

Margin of Safety

安全边际

Estimated intrinsic value: $XX (15× 3-year avg. EPS)
Current price: $XX
Discount / Premium: X%
Earnings yield: X% vs. bond yield X%

估算内在价值：XX美元（15×过去3年平均EPS）
当前价格：XX美元
折扣/溢价：X%
盈利收益率：X% vs. 债券收益率X%

Verdict

结论

[QUALIFIES / DOES NOT QUALIFY] for defensive investor. Margin of safety: [ADEQUATE / THIN / NEGATIVE]. [1–2 sentence investment/speculation classification.]


**For market reaction questions:** Lead with the Mr. Market framework, then business fundamentals assessment. End with a clear action recommendation.

**For portfolio allocation:** State the recommended stock/bond split with rationale. Include a rebalancing rule.

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[符合/不符合]防御型投资者要求。安全边际：[充足/薄弱/负向]。 [1-2句话的投资/投机分类说明。]


**市场反应类问题输出：** 以市场先生框架开头，然后评估企业基本面，最后给出明确的行动建议。

**资产配置类问题输出：** 说明推荐的股票/债券比例及理由，包含再平衡规则。

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Critical Reminders

重要提醒

Price and value are different things. A rising price does not make a stock safer; a falling price does not make it more dangerous — unless the underlying business has deteriorated.
The margin of safety is not optional. It is the single concept that separates investment from speculation. Never waive it for an "exciting" opportunity.
Never forecast the market. The future of security prices is never predictable. Allocation decisions should be based on current valuations vs. historical standards, not predictions.
Separate investment and speculation accounts. If the user insists on speculating, help them do it safely in a separate, limited fund — never mixed with investment capital.
Diversification is the mechanical realization of the margin of safety. A single stock with a margin of safety can still lose money; 20 stocks with margins of safety almost certainly will not produce aggregate loss.
The intelligent investor's greatest enemy is themselves. Emotional responses to Mr. Market are the primary source of investment losses. The framework exists to make decisions mechanical and emotion-free.
Quality is not a substitute for price. The best company in the world bought at 40× earnings provides no margin of safety. Even mediocre businesses become sound investments at sufficiently low prices.

价格与价值是两回事。 价格上涨不会让股票更安全；价格下跌也不会让股票更危险——除非企业基本面恶化。
安全边际并非可选。 它是区分投资与投机的核心概念。绝不要为了“令人兴奋”的机会而放弃安全边际。
永远不要预测市场。 证券价格的未来永远无法预测。配置决策应基于当前估值与历史标准的对比，而非预测。
分开投资与投机账户。 如果用户坚持投机，帮助他们在单独的有限资金中安全进行——绝不要与投资资金混合。
多元化是安全边际的机械体现。 一只具备安全边际的股票仍可能亏损；20只具备安全边际的股票几乎肯定不会产生整体亏损。
聪明投资者最大的敌人是自己。 对市场先生的情绪反应是投资损失的主要来源。该框架的存在是为了让决策变得机械且无情绪。
优质不能替代价格。 以40倍市盈率买入世界上最好的公司也没有安全边际。即使是平庸的企业，在价格足够低时也会成为可靠的投资标的。