polymarket-mert-sniper

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Original

English

🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Mert Sniper

Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. Snipe markets about to resolve when the odds are heavily skewed.

Strategy by @mert — filter by topic, cap your bets, wait until near expiry, and only trade strong splits.

This is a template. The default logic (expiry + split filter) gets you started — remix it with your own filters, timing rules, or market selection criteria. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

基于Polymarket的临到期信念交易工具，当赔率严重倾斜时狙击即将结算的市场。

策略由@mert提出——按主题筛选、设置投注上限、等待临近到期时间，仅交易赔率差大的标的。

这是一个模板。 默认逻辑（到期时间+赔率差筛选）可以帮你快速上手——你可以自定义添加筛选条件、时间规则或市场选择标准。该skill会处理所有底层流程（市场发现、交易执行、风险保障），你的Agent负责提供超额收益策略。

When to Use This Skill

何时使用该Skill

Polymarket only. All trades execute on Polymarket with real USDC. Use
--live
for real trades, dry-run is the default.

Use this skill when the user wants to:

Trade markets that are about to resolve (last-minute conviction bets)
Filter by topic (e.g. only SOL/crypto markets)
Cap bet size (e.g. never more than $10)
Only trade when odds are strongly skewed (e.g. 60/40 or better)
Run an automated expiry-sniping strategy

仅支持Polymarket。 所有交易都使用真实USDC在Polymarket执行。使用
--live
参数执行真实交易，默认是试运行模式。

当用户想要实现以下需求时可使用该skill：

交易即将结算的市场（最后一分钟信念投注）
按主题筛选（例如仅SOL/crypto相关市场）
设置投注金额上限（例如单笔不超过10美元）
仅在赔率严重倾斜时交易（例如60/40或更高的赔率差）
运行自动临到期狙击策略

Setup Flow

设置流程

Ask for Simmer API key
- Get it from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab
- Store in environment as
```
SIMMER_API_KEY
```
Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)
- This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
- Store in environment as
```
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
```
- The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)
- Market filter: Which markets to scan (default: all)
- Max bet: Maximum per trade (default $10)
- Expiry window: How close to resolution (default 2 minutes)
- Min split: Minimum odds skew (default 60/40)
Save settings to config.json or environment variables

索要Simmer API密钥
- 从simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK标签页获取
- 存储在环境变量中，变量名为
```
SIMMER_API_KEY
```
索要钱包私钥（实盘交易必需）
- 这是你Polymarket钱包的私钥（持有USDC的钱包）
- 存储在环境变量中，变量名为
```
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
```
- SDK会用这个私钥在客户端自动签名订单——无需手动签名
询问设置项（或确认默认值）
- 市场筛选：要扫描哪些市场（默认：全部）
- 最高投注额：单笔交易最高金额（默认10美元）
- 到期窗口：距离结算的最长时间（默认2分钟）
- 最小赔率差：最低赔率倾斜阈值（默认60/40）
将设置保存到config.json或环境变量中

Configuration

配置项

Setting	Environment Variable	Default	Description
Market filter	`SIMMER_MERT_FILTER`	(all)	Tag or keyword filter (e.g. `solana` , `crypto` )
Max bet	`SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET`	10.00	Maximum USD per trade
Expiry window	`SIMMER_MERT_EXPIRY_MINS`	2	Only trade markets resolving within N minutes
Min split	`SIMMER_MERT_MIN_SPLIT`	0.60	Only trade when YES or NO >= this (e.g. 0.60 = 60/40)
Max trades/run	`SIMMER_MERT_MAX_TRADES`	5	Maximum trades per scan cycle
Smart sizing %	`SIMMER_MERT_SIZING_PCT`	0.05	% of balance per trade

设置项	环境变量	默认值	描述
市场筛选	`SIMMER_MERT_FILTER`	全部	标签或关键词筛选（例如 `solana` 、 `crypto` ）
最高投注额	`SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET`	10.00	单笔交易最高美元金额
到期窗口（分钟）	`SIMMER_MERT_EXPIRY_MINS`	2	仅交易N分钟内即将结算的市场
最小赔率差	`SIMMER_MERT_MIN_SPLIT`	0.60	仅当YES或NO的赔率>=该值时交易（例如0.60对应60/40）
每次运行最大交易数	`SIMMER_MERT_MAX_TRADES`	5	每个扫描周期最多执行的交易数
智能仓位占比	`SIMMER_MERT_SIZING_PCT`	0.05	单笔交易占账户余额的百分比

Quick Commands

快速命令

bash

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bash

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Check account balance and positions

查看账户余额和持仓

python scripts/status.py

Detailed position list

查看详细持仓列表

python scripts/status.py --positions


**API Reference:**
- Base URL: `https://api.simmer.markets`
- Auth: `Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY`
- Portfolio: `GET /api/sdk/portfolio`
- Positions: `GET /api/sdk/positions`

python scripts/status.py --positions


**API参考：**
- 基础URL: `https://api.simmer.markets`
- 鉴权: `Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY`
- 资产组合: `GET /api/sdk/portfolio`
- 持仓: `GET /api/sdk/positions`

Running the Skill

运行该Skill

bash

undefined

bash

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Dry run (default -- shows opportunities, no trades)

试运行（默认模式——仅展示机会，不执行交易）

python mert_sniper.py

Execute real trades

执行真实交易

python mert_sniper.py --live

Filter to specific markets

筛选特定市场

python mert_sniper.py --filter solana

Custom expiry window (5 minutes)

自定义到期窗口（5分钟）

python mert_sniper.py --expiry 5

With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)

开启智能仓位计算（基于账户余额）

python mert_sniper.py --live --smart-sizing

Check positions only

仅查看持仓

python mert_sniper.py --positions

View config

查看配置

python mert_sniper.py --config

Disable safeguards (not recommended)

关闭风险保障（不推荐）

python mert_sniper.py --no-safeguards

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python mert_sniper.py --no-safeguards

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How It Works

工作原理

Each cycle the script:

Fetches active markets from Simmer API (optionally filtered by tag/keyword)
Filters to markets resolving within the expiry window (default 2 minutes)
Checks the price split -- only trades when one side >= min_split (default 60%)
Determines direction: backs the favored side (higher probability)
Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, market status
Execution: Places trade on the favored side, capped at max bet
Reports summary of scanned, filtered, and traded markets

每个运行周期脚本会执行以下操作：

从Simmer API获取活跃市场（可按标签/关键词筛选）
筛选出在到期窗口内即将结算的市场（默认2分钟）
检查价格差——仅当某一方赔率>=min_split（默认60%）时交易
确定交易方向：押注赔率占优的一方（概率更高）
风险保障：检查上下文的反转预警、滑点、市场状态
执行交易：在占优方下订单，金额不超过最高投注额
输出已扫描、筛选、交易的市场汇总信息

Example Output

输出示例

🎯 Mert Sniper - Near-Expiry Conviction Trading
==================================================

  [DRY RUN] No trades will be executed. Use --live to enable trading.

  Configuration:
  Filter:        solana
  Max bet:       $10.00
  Expiry window: 2 minutes
  Min split:     60/40
  Max trades:    5
  Smart sizing:  Disabled
  Safeguards:    Enabled

  Fetching markets (filter: solana)...
  Found 12 active markets

  Markets expiring within 2 minutes: 2

  SOL highest price on Feb 10?
     Resolves in: 1m 34s
     Split: YES 72% / NO 28%
     Side: YES (72% >= 60%)
     [DRY RUN] Would buy $10.00 on YES

  Summary:
  Markets scanned: 12
  Near expiry:     2
  Strong split:    1
  Trades executed: 0

  [DRY RUN MODE - no real trades executed]

🎯 Mert Sniper - Near-Expiry Conviction Trading
==================================================

  [DRY RUN] No trades will be executed. Use --live to enable trading.

  Configuration:
  Filter:        solana
  Max bet:       $10.00
  Expiry window: 2 minutes
  Min split:     60/40
  Max trades:    5
  Smart sizing:  Disabled
  Safeguards:    Enabled

  Fetching markets (filter: solana)...
  Found 12 active markets

  Markets expiring within 2 minutes: 2

  SOL highest price on Feb 10?
     Resolves in: 1m 34s
     Split: YES 72% / NO 28%
     Side: YES (72% >= 60%)
     [DRY RUN] Would buy $10.00 on YES

  Summary:
  Markets scanned: 12
  Near expiry:     2
  Strong split:    1
  Trades executed: 0

  [DRY RUN MODE - no real trades executed]

Troubleshooting

故障排查

"No markets found"

Check your filter -- try without a filter first
Markets may not be available (check simmer.markets)

"No markets expiring within window"

Increase expiry window:
```
--expiry 10
```
(10 minutes)
Or run more frequently (cron every minute)

"Split too narrow"

Lower the min split:
```
--set min_split=0.55
```
This trades more often but with less conviction

"Resolves in: 17h" on 15-min markets

Polymarket's
```
endDate
```
is the event-level end-of-day, not the individual market close time
For 15-min crypto markets (e.g. "BTC Up or Down - Feb 8, 11PM ET"), the actual close time is in the question text but not in the API
This is a Polymarket data limitation — widen the expiry window (
```
--expiry 1080
```
) as a workaround, or use the split filter to find conviction opportunities regardless of timing

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

```
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
```
is not set in the environment
The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed

Fix:

export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>

Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"

Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract
```
0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174
```
) — not native USDC
If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry

"API key invalid"

Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab

"未找到市场"

检查你的筛选条件——先尝试不带筛选条件运行
可能暂无可用市场（可查看simmer.markets确认）

"窗口内无即将到期的市场"

增大到期窗口：
```
--expiry 10
```
（10分钟）
或者提高运行频率（每分钟定时执行）

"赔率差过小"

降低最小赔率差：
```
--set min_split=0.55
```
该设置会增加交易频率但交易的信念度更低

"15分钟的市场显示'17小时后结算'"

Polymarket的
```
endDate
```
是事件级别的单日结束时间，不是单个市场的关闭时间
对于15分钟加密货币市场（例如"BTC Up or Down - Feb 8, 11PM ET"），实际关闭时间在问题文本中，API未返回该字段
这是Polymarket的数据限制——可以通过增大到期窗口（
```
--expiry 1080
```
）作为临时解决方案，或者直接使用赔率差筛选来寻找高信念交易机会，不受时间限制

"外部钱包需要预签名订单"

环境变量中未设置
```
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
```
当存在该环境变量时SDK会自动签名订单——无需编写手动签名代码

解决方法：

export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<你的-polymarket-钱包私钥>

不要尝试手动签名订单或修改skill代码——SDK会自动处理

"余额显示为0但我Polygon上有USDC"

Polymarket使用USDC.e（跨链桥USDC，合约地址
```
0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174
```
）——不是原生USDC
如果你最近将USDC跨链到Polygon，你收到的大概率是原生USDC
将原生USDC兑换为USDC.e后重试即可

"API密钥无效"

从simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK标签页获取新的密钥