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Bitcoin Bottom-Timing Judgment Model

比特币抄底时机判断模型

This skill helps you systematically determine whether Bitcoin has entered a bottom zone worth building a position in. Through a comprehensive evaluation of 6 on-chain and market indicators, it avoids blind "catching a falling knife" style bottom-fishing and identifies entry opportunities with higher probability.

该技能可帮助你系统性判断比特币是否进入值得建仓的底部区间。通过对6项链上及市场指标的综合评估，避免盲目“接飞刀”式的抄底行为，识别更高概率的入场机会。

Use Cases

适用场景

Use this skill when users ask the following types of questions:

Has Bitcoin bottomed out / Can I buy the dip
Where is BTC in the current cycle
Do on-chain data support building a position
Where is the miner cost floor
What are long-term holders doing

当用户询问以下类型的问题时，使用该技能：

比特币是否见底 / 我可以抄底吗
BTC当前处于周期的哪个阶段
链上数据是否支持建仓
矿工成本底线是多少
长期持有者的行为如何

Analysis Framework

分析框架

6 Core Bottom-Fishing Indicators

6项核心抄底指标

For each indicator, use web_search to search for the latest data, then evaluate according to the criteria below.

针对每个指标，使用web_search搜索最新数据，然后根据以下标准进行评估。

Indicator 1: K-line Technical Indicator — RSI Oversold

指标1：K线技术指标 — RSI超卖

What it is: RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a technical analysis tool that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements, with values ranging from 0-100. In simple terms: the lower the RSI, the more severe the recent decline and selling pressure. Here we focus specifically on the "weekly level" (i.e., using each week as one candlestick), because the weekly timeframe filters out the short-term noise of daily charts and better reflects medium- to long-term trends.

Search keywords:

Bitcoin weekly RSI

BTC RSI 14 current

Bottom signal criteria:

Weekly RSI < 30 → ✅ Triggered: Severely oversold, historically this level often corresponds to cycle bottom zones
Weekly RSI 30-45 → 🟡 Approaching: Weak but not at extremes
Weekly RSI > 45 → ❌ Not triggered: Not in an oversold state

Key interpretation: The number of times Bitcoin's weekly RSI has dropped below 30 in history can be counted on one hand (2015, late 2018, March 2020, late 2022), and each time corresponded to a major bottom. However, note that RSI can remain at low levels for a period of time — it doesn't mean "it bounces as soon as it bottoms."

指标定义：RSI（相对强弱指数）是一种技术分析工具，用于衡量价格变动的速度和幅度，数值范围为0-100。简单来说：RSI值越低，近期下跌和抛售压力越严重。我们这里重点关注“周线级别”（即每周作为一根K线），因为周线时间框架过滤了日线的短期噪音，更能反映中长期趋势。

搜索关键词：

Bitcoin weekly RSI

或

BTC RSI 14 current

底部信号标准：

周线RSI < 30 → ✅ 触发：严重超卖，历史上该水平通常对应周期底部区间
周线RSI 30-45 → 🟡 接近：偏弱但未达极端
周线RSI > 45 → ❌ 未触发：未处于超卖状态

关键解读：比特币周线RSI跌破30的次数在历史上屈指可数（2015年、2018年末、2020年3月、2022年末），每次都对应着重大底部。但需注意，RSI可能在低位维持一段时间——并不意味着“一触底就反弹”。

Indicator 2: Volume Dry-up

指标2：成交量枯竭

What it is: After a round of panic selling, if trading volume significantly contracts (below the recent 30-day average volume), it indicates that selling pressure has been exhausted — everyone who wanted to sell has already sold. This is an important precursor to bottom formation. Volume refers to the total amount (or total value) of Bitcoin traded during a given period.

Search keywords:

Bitcoin trading volume 30 day average

BTC daily volume declining

Bottom signal criteria:

Current daily volume < 70% of 30-day average → ✅ Triggered: Selling exhaustion, selling pressure dried up
Volume near the 30-day average → 🟡 Neutral
Volume far above the 30-day average → ❌ Not triggered: Market is still actively selling

Key interpretation: The hallmark of panic selling is "high-volume crash," while the hallmark of a bottom is "low-volume base building." If the price has already dropped significantly but volume has contracted, it indicates that selling momentum is weakening.

指标定义：一轮恐慌性抛售过后，如果成交量大幅收缩（低于最近30日平均成交量），表明抛售压力已耗尽——想卖的人都已经卖了。这是底部形成的重要前兆。成交量指的是某一时间段内比特币的总交易数量（或总交易价值）。

搜索关键词：

Bitcoin trading volume 30 day average

或

BTC daily volume declining

底部信号标准：

当前日成交量 < 30日平均值的70% → ✅ 触发：抛售耗尽，卖压枯竭
成交量接近30日平均值 → 🟡 中性
成交量远高于30日平均值 → ❌ 未触发：市场仍在主动抛售

关键解读：恐慌性抛售的标志是“放量暴跌”，而底部的标志是“缩量筑底”。如果价格已大幅下跌但成交量收缩，表明抛售动能正在减弱。

Indicator 3: MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)

指标3：MVRV比率（市值与实现市值比率）

What it is: This is an on-chain indicator unique to Bitcoin.

Market Value (market cap) = current price × total circulating supply, which is what we commonly refer to as Bitcoin's total market cap
Realized Value (realized market cap) = the total value calculated by pricing each Bitcoin at the price when it was last transferred. It can be simply understood as "the average cost basis of all holders"

When MVRV < 1.0, it means the market as a whole is at a loss (current market value is below the sum of everyone's cost basis), which has historically been an excellent long-term buying zone.

Search keywords:

Bitcoin MVRV ratio

BTC MVRV glassnode

Bottom signal criteria:

MVRV < 1.0 → ✅ Triggered: Overall market at a loss, historic bottom zone
MVRV 1.0-1.5 → 🟡 Low but not extreme
MVRV > 1.5 → ❌ Not triggered: Market overall in profit

Key interpretation: MVRV < 1 has only occurred a few times in Bitcoin's history (2011, 2015, 2018-2019, 2022), each lasting only a short period, and all were followed by enormous price increases. This is one of the most reliable cycle bottom indicators.

指标定义：这是比特币特有的链上指标。

市值（market cap） = 当前价格 × 总流通供应量，即我们通常所说的比特币总市值
实现市值（realized market cap） = 将每个比特币按其最后一次转移时的价格计价计算出的总价值。可以简单理解为“所有持有者的平均成本基础”

当MVRV < 1.0时，意味着整个市场处于亏损状态（当前市值低于所有人的成本基础之和），这在历史上是极佳的长期买入区间。

搜索关键词：

Bitcoin MVRV ratio

或

BTC MVRV glassnode

底部信号标准：

MVRV < 1.0 → ✅ 触发：市场整体亏损，历史底部区间
MVRV 1.O-1.5 → 🟡 偏低但未达极端
MVRV > 1.5 → ❌ 未触发：市场整体盈利

关键解读：MVRV < 1在比特币历史上仅出现过几次（2011年、2015年、2018-2019年、2022年），每次持续时间都很短，随后都出现了巨大的价格涨幅。这是最可靠的周期底部指标之一。

Indicator 4: Social Media Fear Index

指标4：社交媒体恐慌指数

What it is: By analyzing the sentiment of Bitcoin discussions on social platforms such as Twitter (X), Reddit, Telegram, etc., a "fear/greed" score is calculated. Commonly used tools include Alternative.me's Fear & Greed Index, as well as various sentiment analysis tools based on natural language processing. 0 = Extreme Fear, 100 = Extreme Greed.

Search keywords:

crypto fear and greed index

Bitcoin fear greed index today

Bottom signal criteria:

Fear index < 25 (Extreme Fear) → ✅ Triggered: Market is permeated with panic, often a contrarian indicator
Fear index 25-45 → 🟡 Leaning fearful but not extreme
Fear index > 45 → ❌ Not triggered: Market sentiment is normal or leaning greedy

Key interpretation: Buffett's famous quote "Be greedy when others are fearful" applies equally to the crypto market. When social media is flooded with talk of "going to zero" or "never touching it again," it's often near the bottom. However, extreme fear can persist for weeks or even months.

指标定义：通过分析Twitter（X）、Reddit、Telegram等社交平台上比特币讨论的情绪，计算出“恐慌/贪婪”得分。常用工具包括Alternative.me的Fear & Greed Index，以及基于自然语言处理的各类情绪分析工具。0 = 极度恐慌，100 = 极度贪婪。

搜索关键词：

crypto fear and greed index

或

Bitcoin fear greed index today

底部信号标准：

恐慌指数 < 25（极度恐慌） → ✅ 触发：市场弥漫恐慌情绪，通常是反向指标
恐慌指数25-45 → 🟡 偏向恐慌但未达极端
恐慌指数 > 45 → ❌ 未触发：市场情绪正常或偏向贪婪

关键解读：巴菲特的名言“别人恐惧时我贪婪”同样适用于加密货币市场。当社交媒体充斥着“归零”或“再也不碰”的言论时，往往接近底部。但极端恐慌可能持续数周甚至数月。

Indicator 5: Miner Shutdown Price

指标5：矿工关机价

What it is: Bitcoin miners need to pay electricity costs to run mining machines. When the Bitcoin price drops below a certain mining machine's mining cost, operating that machine becomes unprofitable, and miners will choose to shut down. The shutdown price of mainstream miners (such as Bitmain Antminer S19 series or the newer S21 series) forms a "natural floor" — because when a large number of miners are forced to shut down, network hashrate decreases, mining difficulty adjusts, and eventually a new equilibrium is reached.

Search keywords:

Bitcoin mining cost per BTC

Bitcoin miner breakeven price

Antminer S19 shutdown price

Bottom signal criteria:

Current price near or below mainstream miner shutdown price → ✅ Triggered: Price approaching production cost floor
Current price 20-50% above shutdown price → 🟡 Miners under pressure but still profitable
Current price far above shutdown price → ❌ Not triggered: Miners are well profitable

Key interpretation: The miner shutdown price adjusts with changes in electricity costs, mining machine efficiency, and network difficulty. After each halving (mining reward halved), the shutdown price rises significantly. Focus on the cost floor of the latest generation of mainstream miners, not outdated and inefficient ones.

指标定义：比特币矿工需要支付电费来运行矿机。当比特币价格低于某款矿机的挖矿成本时，运行该矿机将无利可图，矿工将选择关机。主流矿工（如比特大陆Antminer S19系列或更新的S21系列）的关机价形成了一个“天然底部”——因为当大量矿工被迫关机时，网络哈希率下降，挖矿难度调整，最终会达到新的平衡。

搜索关键词：

Bitcoin mining cost per BTC

或

Bitcoin miner breakeven price

或

Antminer S19 shutdown price

底部信号标准：

当前价格接近或低于主流矿工关机价 → ✅ 触发：价格接近生产成本底线
当前价格比关机价高20-50% → 🟡 矿工面临压力但仍盈利
当前价格远高于关机价 → ❌ 未触发：矿工盈利状况良好

关键解读：矿工关机价会随着电费成本、矿机效率和网络难度的变化而调整。每次减半（挖矿奖励减半）后，关机价都会大幅上涨。重点关注最新一代主流矿机的成本底线，而非过时低效的矿机。

Indicator 6: Long-Term Holder Behavior (LTH — Long Term Holders)

指标6：长期持有者行为（LTH — Long Term Holders）

What it is: On-chain data classifies addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days (approximately 5 months) as "Long-Term Holders" (LTH). LTH Supply Ratio = BTC held by long-term holders ÷ total circulating BTC supply. When this ratio increases, it means more and more coins are transferring from short-term traders to "diamond hands."

Search keywords:

Bitcoin long term holder supply ratio

BTC LTH supply glassnode

Bottom signal criteria:

LTH supply ratio continuously rising and > 70% → ✅ Triggered: Smart money is accumulating, bottom signal
LTH supply ratio stable → 🟡 Neutral
LTH supply ratio declining → ❌ Not triggered: Long-term holders are selling (typically occurs at bull market tops)

Key interpretation: Long-term holders are typically "veterans" who have experienced multiple bull and bear cycles. When they accumulate heavily at low prices, it indicates that these experienced investors believe the current price has long-term value. This is one of the most meaningful "smart money" indicators.

指标定义：链上数据将持有比特币超过155天（约5个月）的地址归类为“长期持有者”（LTH）。LTH供应量比率 = 长期持有者持有的BTC ÷ 总流通BTC供应量。当该比率上升时，意味着越来越多的币从短期交易者转移到“钻石手”手中。

搜索关键词：

Bitcoin long term holder supply ratio

或

BTC LTH supply glassnode

底部信号标准：

LTH供应量比率持续上升且 > 70% → ✅ 触发：聪明资金正在积累，底部信号
LTH供应量比率稳定 → 🟡 中性
LTH供应量比率下降 → ❌ 未触发：长期持有者在抛售（通常发生在牛市顶部）

关键解读：长期持有者通常是经历过多个牛熊周期的“老手”。当他们在低位大量积累时，表明这些经验丰富的投资者认为当前价格具有长期价值。这是最有意义的“聪明资金”指标之一。

Comprehensive Evaluation Logic

综合评估逻辑

Count how many of the 6 indicators have triggered a bottom signal:

Triggered Indicators	Bottom Rating	Position-Building Recommendation
0-1	❌ Weak (Not recommended)	Wait and watch, no rush to enter
2	🟡 Weak	Small exploratory position (5-10% of total position)
3	🟡 Moderate	Begin building position in batches (10-20% of total position)
4	✅ Strong	Batch position-building signal, can increase size (20-40% of total position)
5	✅✅ Very Strong	Heavy position bottom-fishing signal (40-60% of total position)
6	🔥 Extremely Strong (Historic bottom)	Maximize position (60-80% of total position), this opportunity is very rare

Note: Position ratios refer to the proportion of your total funds planned for the crypto market, not your total personal assets. Please adjust according to your own risk tolerance.

统计6项指标中有多少项触发了底部信号：

触发指标数量	抄底评级	建仓建议
0-1	❌ 偏弱（不建议）	观望，无需急于入场
2	🟡 偏弱	小仓位试探（占总计划加密仓位的5-10%）
3	🟡 中等	开始分批建仓（占总计划加密仓位的10-20%）
4	✅ 较强	分批建仓信号，可加大仓位（占总计划加密仓位的20-40%）
5	✅✅ 极强	重仓抄底信号（占总计划加密仓位的40-60%）
6	🔥 极强（历史大底）	最大化仓位（占总计划加密仓位的60-80%），此机会极为罕见

注意：仓位比例指的是你计划投入加密货币市场的总资金的比例，而非你的个人总资产比例。请根据自身风险承受能力调整。

Output Format

输出格式

Use the following structured template to output the analysis results:

undefined

使用以下结构化模板输出分析结果：

undefined

🔍 Bitcoin Bottom-Timing Analysis Report

Date: [current date] BTC Current Price: $[price]

📊 Indicator Dashboard

Indicator	Current Value	Bottom Signal	Description
Weekly RSI	[value]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
Volume Change	[relative to 30-day avg]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
MVRV Ratio	[value]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
Fear & Greed Index	[value]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
Miner Shutdown Price	$[price]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
LTH Supply Ratio	[percentage]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]

Indicator	Current Value	Bottom Signal	Description
Weekly RSI	[value]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
Volume Change	[relative to 30-day avg]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
MVRV Ratio	[value]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
Fear & Greed Index	[value]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
Miner Shutdown Price	$[price]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]
LTH Supply Ratio	[percentage]	[Triggered/Not triggered]	[Brief description]

🚦 Overall Rating

Bottom Rating: [Extremely Strong / Very Strong / Strong / Moderate / Weak / Not recommended] Triggered Indicators: [X] / 6

💰 Position-Building Recommendations

[Provide specific position-building strategy based on the rating, including:]

Recommended position ratio
Batch entry schedule (e.g., enter in 3 batches, 1 week apart)
Stop-loss reference level

[Provide specific position-building strategy based on the rating, including:]

Recommended position ratio
Batch entry schedule (e.g., enter in 3 batches, 1 week apart)
Stop-loss reference level

📈 Historical Reference

[If multiple signals are currently triggered, mention how similar situations performed historically]

⚠️ Risk Disclaimer

This model is based on historical data backtesting and does not guarantee future effectiveness
The crypto market is extremely volatile; a "bottom" may persist for months
Even if all indicators are triggered, prices may still drop further
Never invest more than you can afford to lose
DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is recommended over going all-in at once
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice

undefined

This model is based on historical data backtesting and does not guarantee future effectiveness
The crypto market is extremely volatile; a "bottom" may persist for months
Even if all indicators are triggered, prices may still drop further
Never invest more than you can afford to lose
DCA (dollar-cost averaging) is recommended over going all-in at once
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice

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Execution Steps

执行步骤

First search for Bitcoin's current price
Use web_search to search for the latest data for each of the 6 indicators
If precise values for a certain indicator cannot be found, try to obtain approximate data from public reports on on-chain data platforms such as Glassnode, CoinGlass, CryptoQuant
Evaluate each indicator one by one according to the signal criteria
Count the number of triggers to arrive at an overall rating
Generate the report using the output template
Append main data source links at the end of the report

首先搜索比特币当前价格
使用web_search搜索6项指标的最新数据
若某一指标无法找到精确数值，尝试从Glassnode、CoinGlass、CryptoQuant等链上数据平台的公开报告中获取近似数据
根据信号标准逐一评估每个指标
统计触发数量得出整体评级
使用输出模板生成报告
在报告末尾附上主要数据源链接

Important Reminders

重要提醒

Some on-chain data (such as MVRV, LTH Supply) require paid subscriptions to platforms like Glassnode to access precise real-time data; free searches may only find data cited by analysts or slightly delayed data
The miner shutdown price changes with the halving cycle, electricity prices, and mining machine iterations — pay attention to data timeliness
If reliable data for a certain indicator cannot be found, honestly state so rather than guessing
These indicators are suitable for judging medium- to long-term cycle bottoms (weekly/monthly level), not for short-term trading
All recommendations are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice

部分链上数据（如MVRV、LTH供应量）需要订阅Glassnode等平台的付费服务才能获取精确实时数据；免费搜索可能只能找到分析师引用的数据或略有延迟的数据
矿工关机价会随减半周期、电价、矿机迭代而变化——注意数据时效性
若某一指标无法找到可靠数据，请如实说明，切勿猜测
这些指标适用于判断中长期周期底部（周/月级别），不适用于短期交易
所有建议仅供参考，不构成投资建议