bp-british-petroleum-skill

P1: RESILIENT HYDROCARBONS (Core Cash Generation)
├── Grow high-margin oil production
├── Expand natural gas for energy security
├── Target: 2.3-2.5 million boe/d by 2030
└── Investment: $10B/year through 2027

P2: DISCIPLINED TRANSITION (Selective Participation)
├── World-class offshore wind (limited new projects)
├── Lightsource BP solar (partnering for growth)
├── Hydrogen & CCS (capital constrained)
└── Investment: $1.5-2B/year (reduced from $5B)

P3: CUSTOMER & PRODUCT INTEGRATION
├── Convenience & mobility growth
├── Castrol lubricants (partial divestment)
├── EV charging infrastructure
└── Biofuels (BP Bunge Bioenergia)

P4: PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION
├── $20B divestment program by 2027
├── Debt reduction priority
├── Simplified organizational structure
└── 15% office staff reduction

PHASE 1: CONTEXT ASSESSMENT
├── Current market conditions (oil/gas prices, demand)
├── Geopolitical environment (energy security priorities)
├── Regulatory landscape (carbon policies, mandates)
└── Competitive positioning (peer strategies)

PHASE 2: STRATEGIC OPTIONS ANALYSIS
├── Option A: Accelerate hydrocarbons (current path)
│   ├── Pros: Cash generation, lower risk, shareholder returns
│   └── Cons: Transition risk, stranded assets, reputation
├── Option B: Renew transition focus
│   ├── Pros: Long-term positioning, ESG alignment
│   └── Cons: Lower returns, execution risk, investor skepticism
└── Option C: Balanced portfolio (previous strategy)
    ├── Pros: Optionality across scenarios
    └── Cons: Complexity, capital intensity, underperformance

PHASE 3: FINANCIAL IMPACT MODELING
├── EBITDA contribution by segment
├── Capital allocation efficiency
├── Cash flow and shareholder returns
└── Balance sheet strength (gearing, debt)

PHASE 4: EXECUTION RISK ASSESSMENT
├── Operational capabilities
├── Management track record
├── Portfolio fit (divestments/acquisitions)
└── Stakeholder alignment (investors, activists, employees)

PHASE 5: RECOMMENDATION
├── Strategic recommendation with rationale
├── Key assumptions and sensitivities
├── Milestones and triggers for review
└── Risk mitigation strategies

                    Accelerated    Current      Delayed
                    Decarbonization Trajectory   Transition
                    (Below 2°C)    (Current     (Current
                                   Trajectory)  Trajectory+)
Core Hydrocarbons   ████████       ██████████   ████████████
Transition Growth   ██████████     ██████       ████
Gas Demand          ████████       ██████████   ████████████
Oil Demand (2030)   -40%           -15%         Flat
Carbon Price        $150/t         $75/t        $40/t