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Kepner-Tregoe Analysis

Kepner-Tregoe分析

Core rule: Diagnose deviations by testing causes against both IS and IS-NOT. Compare consequential choices by screening MUSTs, weighting WANTs, and exposing adverse consequences before selecting.
核心规则： 通过针对IS和IS-NOT测试原因来诊断偏差。在做出选择前，通过筛选MUSTs、加权WANTs并揭示负面后果来对比重大选项。

When to Use

适用场景

  • A defect affects some objects, places, times, or cohorts but not comparable others.
  • Several candidate causes remain and the contrast boundary can discriminate them.
  • A consequential option choice has explicit non-negotiables, competing objectives, and risks that should be compared consistently.
  • 缺陷影响部分对象、地点、时间或群体，但不影响其他可对比的对象、地点、时间或群体。
  • 仍存在多个候选原因，且对比边界可区分这些原因。
  • 重大选项决策具有明确的非协商要求、相互竞争的目标，且需要一致对比风险。

When NOT to Use

不适用场景

  • A uniform failure has no meaningful IS-NOT contrast, or the cause is already confirmed.
  • One cheap observation settles the cause or one option plainly dominates every requirement.
  • The criteria cannot be made operational; clarify them before assigning weights.
  • The task is forward failure discovery for a planned change rather than diagnosis or option selection.
  • 出现统一故障，无有意义的IS-NOT对比，或原因已确认。
  • 一次低成本观察即可确定原因，或某一选项明显满足所有要求。
  • 无法将标准转化为可操作的指标；在分配权重前需先明确标准。
  • 任务是针对计划变更进行前瞻性故障排查，而非诊断问题或选择选项。

Procedure

流程

  1. Choose the mode. Use Problem Analysis for a deviation from expected behavior; use Decision Analysis for a choice among options. State the target and do not mix scores with causal evidence.
  2. Frame the target. For a deviation, record object, defect, location, time, extent, and impact. For a choice, state the decision, alternatives, constraints, and deadline.
  3. Problem Analysis — build IS/IS-NOT. For WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, and EXTENT, record IS, closest comparable IS-NOT, and the distinction unique to the IS side. List changes near the first occurrence.
  4. Problem Analysis — difference-test causes. Generate candidates from distinctions and changes. A candidate survives only if it explains both IS and IS-NOT. Run the cheapest discriminating check; stop when one verified cause explains the full boundary.
  5. Decision Analysis — screen and score. Define pass/fail MUSTs and weighted WANTs (1–10 importance) before scoring. Eliminate options that fail any MUST; score survivors against each WANT and calculate weighted totals using the same scale.
  6. Decision Analysis — test downside and sensitivity. For leading options, list adverse consequences with probability × impact and identify assumptions or weight changes that would reverse the ranking. Do not let a high total conceal a ruinous failure mode.
  7. Decide or expose the gap. Return the verified cause or highest-ranked acceptable option, the evidence/score behind it, residual risk, and next verification. If no cause verifies or no option passes MUSTs, return open/none rather than force a winner.
  1. 选择模式。若为预期行为的偏差，使用问题分析模式；若为选项间的选择，使用决策分析模式。明确目标，不要将评分与因果证据混淆。
  2. 确定目标框架。针对偏差，记录对象、缺陷、位置、时间、范围及影响。针对选择，明确决策内容、备选方案、约束条件及截止时间。
  3. 问题分析——构建IS/IS-NOT矩阵。针对WHAT（对象）、WHERE（位置）、WHEN（时间）和EXTENT（范围），记录IS、最接近的可对比IS-NOT，以及IS侧独有的差异。列出首次出现偏差前后的变化。
  4. 问题分析——差异测试原因。从差异和变化中生成候选原因。只有能同时解释IS和IS-NOT的候选原因才保留。执行成本最低的区分性检查；当某一已验证原因能完全解释对比边界时停止。
  5. 决策分析——筛选与评分。在评分前定义通过/不通过的MUSTs及加权WANTs（重要性1–10分）。淘汰未满足任何MUST的选项；针对每个WANT对剩余选项评分，并使用相同计算方式得出加权总分。
  6. 决策分析——测试风险与敏感度。针对排名靠前的选项，列出负面后果并计算概率×影响值，找出会逆转排名的假设或权重变化。不要让高总分掩盖毁灭性的故障模式。
  7. 决策或暴露差距。返回已验证的原因或排名最高的可接受选项、背后的证据/评分、剩余风险及下一步验证措施。若未验证出原因或无选项满足MUSTs，返回“未确定/无合适选项”，而非强行指定结果。

Output

输出

Return one mode-specific decision artifact:
  • Problem Analysis: problem statement; IS/IS-NOT matrix with distinctions; nearby changes; candidate-vs-boundary tests; confirmed cause or next discriminating check.
  • Decision Analysis: decision statement; alternatives; MUST screen; weighted WANT matrix; adverse-consequence table; sensitivity/reversal conditions; selected option or none.
返回对应模式的决策产物：
  • 问题分析：问题陈述；带差异的IS/IS-NOT矩阵；相关变化；候选原因与边界对比测试；已确认原因或下一步区分性检查。
  • 决策分析：决策陈述；备选方案；MUST筛选条件；加权WANT矩阵；负面后果表；敏感度/排名逆转条件；选定选项或无合适选项。

Verification

验证

  • Falsify/stop: reject a cause that cannot explain both sides of the boundary. Reject a choice if it fails a MUST, depends on inconsistent scoring, or loses under a plausible weight/risk change that was hidden.
  • Over-application guard: skip the full matrix for an obvious cause, trivial choice, or one-shot check. Stop when the cause verifies or the option is robust enough for the stated stakes; extra rows are ceremony.
  • 证伪/终止：拒绝无法同时解释边界两侧的原因。若选项未满足MUST、评分不一致，或在未披露的合理权重/风险变化下排名下降，则拒绝该选项。
  • 过度应用防范：若原因明显、选择无关紧要或可通过单次检查解决，跳过完整矩阵。当原因已验证或选项足够符合既定风险时停止；额外步骤只是形式主义。