scenario-analyzer

Original：🇨🇳 Chinese

Translated

A skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios using news headlines as input. The main analysis is performed by the scenario-analyst agent, and a second opinion is obtained from the strategy-reviewer agent. Generates a comprehensive report in Japanese including primary, secondary, tertiary impacts, recommended stocks, and reviews. Example usage: /scenario-analyzer "Fed raises rates by 50bp" Triggers: news analysis, scenario analysis, 18-month outlook, medium-to-long-term investment strategy

9installs

Sourcetradermonty/claude-trading-skills

Added on2026-02-07

NPX Install

npx skill4agent add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills scenario-analyzer

SKILL.md Content (Chinese)

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Headline Scenario Analyzer

Overview

This skill analyzes medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from news headlines. It sequentially calls two specialized agents (

scenario-analyst

and

strategy-reviewer

) to generate a comprehensive report that integrates multi-faceted analysis and critical reviews.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill in the following cases:

Want to analyze medium-to-long-term investment impacts from news headlines
Want to build multiple scenarios for 18 months later
Want to organize impacts on sectors and stocks into primary/secondary/tertiary levels
Need comprehensive analysis including a second opinion
Need report output in Japanese

Examples of use:

/headline-scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/headline-scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/headline-scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Skill (Orchestrator)                            │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 1: Preparation                                                │
│  ├─ Headline Analysis                                                │
│  ├─ Event Type Classification                                        │
│  └─ Reference Loading                                                │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 2: Agent Invocation                                           │
│  ├─ scenario-analyst (Main Analysis)                                │
│  └─ strategy-reviewer (Second Opinion)                              │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation                            │
│  └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md                   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

Step 1.1: Headline Analysis

Analyzes the headline input by the user.

Headline Verification
- Verify if a headline is passed as an argument
- If not, prompt the user for input
Keyword Extraction
- Key entities (company names, country names, institution names)
- Numeric data (interest rates, prices, quantities)
- Actions (hike, cut, announce, agree, etc.)

Step 1.2: Event Type Classification

Classify the headline into the following categories:

Category	Examples
Monetary Policy	FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike, rate cut, QE/QT
Geopolitics	War, sanctions, tariffs, trade frictions
Regulation & Policy	Environmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust law
Technology	AI, EV, renewable energy, semiconductors
Commodities	Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products
Corporate & M&A	Acquisition, bankruptcy, earnings results, industry restructuring

Step 1.3: Reference Loading

Load relevant references based on the event type:

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

Reference Contents:

```
headline_event_patterns.md
```
: Past event patterns and market reactions
```
sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
```
: Event × sector impact matrix
```
scenario_playbooks.md
```
: Scenario building templates and best practices

Phase 2: Agent Invocation

Step 2.1: Call scenario-analyst

Call the main analysis agent using the Task tool.

Task tool:
- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
- prompt: |
    Please perform an 18-month scenario analysis for the following headline.

    ## Target Headline
    [Input Headline]

    ## Event Type
    [Classification Result]

    ## Reference Information
    [Summary of loaded references]

    ## Analysis Requirements
    1. Collect relevant news from the past 2 weeks using WebSearch
    2. Build 3 scenarios: Base/Bull/Bear (total probability 100%)
    3. Analyze primary/secondary/tertiary impacts by sector
    4. Select 3-5 stocks with positive/negative impacts (US market only)
    5. Output all content in Japanese

Expected Output:

List of relevant news articles
Details of 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
Sector impact analysis (primary/secondary/tertiary)
Recommended stock list

Step 2.2: Call strategy-reviewer

Call the review agent based on the analysis results from scenario-analyst.

Task tool:
- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
- prompt: |
    Please review the following scenario analysis.

    ## Target Headline
    [Input Headline]

    ## Analysis Results
    [Full output from scenario-analyst]

    ## Review Requirements
    Conduct a review from the following perspectives:
    1. Overlooked sectors/stocks
    2. Appropriateness of scenario probability allocation
    3. Logical consistency of impact analysis
    4. Detection of optimistic/pessimistic bias
    5. Proposal of alternative scenarios
    6. Realism of timeline

    Please provide constructive and specific feedback in Japanese.

Expected Output:

Points of oversight
Opinions on scenario probabilities
Points of bias detection
Proposals for alternative scenarios
Final recommendations

Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation

Step 3.1: Result Integration

Integrate the outputs from both agents to create the final investment decision.

Integration Points:

Complement omissions pointed out in the review
Adjust probability allocation (if necessary)
Final judgment considering bias
Formulate specific action plans

Step 3.2: Report Generation

Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file.

Save Path:

reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

markdown

# Headline Scenario Analysis Report

**Analysis Date & Time**: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM
**Target Headline**: [Input Headline]
**Event Type**: [Classification Category]

---

## 1. Relevant News Articles
[News list collected by scenario-analyst]

## 2. Overview of Assumed Scenarios (Up to 18 Months Later)

### Base Case (XX% Probability)
[Scenario Details]

### Bull Case (XX% Probability)
[Scenario Details]

### Bear Case (XX% Probability)
[Scenario Details]

## 3. Impacts on Sectors & Industries

### Primary Impact (Direct)
[Impact Table]

### Secondary Impact (Value Chain & Related Industries)
[Impact Table]

### Tertiary Impact (Macro, Regulation, Technology)
[Impact Table]

## 4. Stocks Expected to Have Positive Impacts (3-5 Stocks)
[Stock Table]

## 5. Stocks Expected to Have Negative Impacts (3-5 Stocks)
[Stock Table]

## 6. Second Opinion & Review
[Output from strategy-reviewer]

## 7. Final Investment Judgment & Implications

### Recommended Actions
[Specific actions based on review]

### Risk Factors
[List of key risks]

### Monitoring Points
[Indicators & events to follow]

---
**Generated by**: scenario-analyzer skill
**Agents**: scenario-analyst, strategy-reviewer

Step 3.3: Save Report

Create the
```
reports/
```
directory if it does not exist

Save as

scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

(e.g.,

scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md

)

Notify the user upon successful saving
Do not save directly to the project root

Resources

References

```
references/headline_event_patterns.md
```
- Event patterns and market reactions
```
references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
```
- Sector sensitivity matrix
```
references/scenario_playbooks.md
```
- Scenario building templates

Agents

```
scenario-analyst
```
- Main scenario analysis
```
strategy-reviewer
```
- Second opinion & review

Important Notes

Language

All analysis and output are conducted in Japanese
Maintain English notation for stock tickers

Target Market

Stock selection is limited to US-listed stocks only
Includes ADRs

Timeline

Scenarios cover a period of 18 months
Describe in 3 phases: 0-6 months / 6-12 months / 12-18 months

Probability Allocation

Base + Bull + Bear = 100%
Describe the probability of each scenario along with its rationale

Second Opinion

Mandatory execution (always call strategy-reviewer)
Reflect review results in the final judgment

Output Path (Important)

Always save under the
```
reports/
```
directory

Path:

reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

Example:

reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md

Create the
```
reports/
```
directory if it does not exist
Do not save directly to the project root

Quality Checklist

Check the following before completing the report:

Is the headline correctly analyzed?
Is the event type classification appropriate?
Does the total probability of the 3 scenarios equal 100%?
Is there a logical connection between primary/secondary/tertiary impacts?
Is there a specific rationale for stock selection?
Does it include the review from strategy-reviewer?
Is the final judgment based on the review included?
Is the report saved to the correct path?