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industry_chain_signal_skill

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English
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Chinese

Industry Chain Signal Skill

Industry Chain Signal Skill

数据依赖与执行前置条件

Data Dependencies and Pre-execution Requirements

推荐使用万得 
wind-mcp-skill
获取底层数据。执行前先检查本地是否已有 
wind-mcp-skill
；若没有，提示用户安装：
bash
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It is recommended to use Wind's 
wind-mcp-skill
to obtain underlying data. Check if 
wind-mcp-skill
is already available locally before execution; if not, prompt the user to install it:
bash
undefined

GitHub

GitHub

npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Gitee 镜像（国内）

Gitee Mirror (Domestic China)

npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
undefined
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
undefined

技能定位

Skill Positioning

本技能用于把行业链条拆成上游、中游、下游或关键环节，识别景气变化如何传导，并回答“价值现在落在哪一段、下一步会传到哪里、哪些公司受益、哪些公司有风险”。输出重点不是写一份宽泛行业介绍，而是把传导路径、关键变量和错配机会说清楚。
This skill is used to break down the industrial chain into upstream, midstream, downstream, or key links, identify how prosperity changes transmit, and answer questions such as "where value currently lies, where it will transmit next, which companies benefit, and which companies face risks". The key output is not a broad industry introduction, but a clear explanation of transmission paths, key variables, and mismatch opportunities.

执行流程

Execution Process

Step 1：确认产业链范围与研究起点

Step 1: Confirm Industrial Chain Scope and Research Starting Point

先明确本次研究覆盖的产业链范围：
  • 研究的是哪条产业链
  • 用户更关注哪个环节或哪个公司
  • 是要寻找机会、验证景气，还是识别风险
  • 观察周期是短期价格变化，还是中期景气趋势
若用户只给出一家公司，也应先把它放回所在产业链中再分析，避免孤立判断。
First, clarify the scope of the industrial chain covered in this research:
  • Which industrial chain is being studied
  • Which link or company the user focuses on more
  • Whether to seek opportunities, verify prosperity, or identify risks
  • Whether the observation cycle is short-term price changes or medium-term prosperity trends
If the user only provides a single company, it should first be placed back into its corresponding industrial chain for analysis to avoid isolated judgments.

Step 2：搭建产业链结构图

Step 2: Build Industrial Chain Structure Diagram

把产业链拆成关键环节，并说明每一环节的功能与价值获取方式，通常包括：
  • 上游资源、原材料或核心零部件
  • 中游制造、集成、平台或分销环节
  • 下游终端需求、客户结构和应用场景
  • 链条中真正决定利润弹性的关键瓶颈环节
这一阶段的目标是先明确“谁给谁供给、谁对谁定价、谁最容易受影响”。
Break down the industrial chain into key links, and explain the function and value acquisition method of each link, which usually includes:
  • Upstream resources, raw materials, or core components
  • Midstream manufacturing, integration, platforms, or distribution links
  • Downstream terminal demand, customer structure, and application scenarios
  • Key bottleneck links in the chain that truly determine profit elasticity
The goal of this stage is to first clarify "who supplies whom, who sets prices for whom, and who is most vulnerable to impacts".

Step 3：提取各环节的核心信号

Step 3: Extract Core Signals of Each Link

围绕景气与利润传导，优先观察以下信号：
  • 价格变化是否反映供需紧张或缓和
  • 订单、出货、排产、开工率等经营线索是否同步改善
  • 库存变化是主动补库、被动累库还是去库存末端
  • 毛利率或利润率改善是来自量增、价升还是成本下降
  • 下游需求变化是否已经向上游或中游反馈
各环节信号应尽量对应到可验证变量，避免停留在抽象判断。
Focusing on prosperity and profit transmission, prioritize observing the following signals:
  • Whether price changes reflect tight or eased supply and demand
  • Whether operating clues such as orders, shipments, production scheduling, and operating rates improve synchronously
  • Whether inventory changes are active restocking, passive inventory accumulation, or the end of destocking
  • Whether gross margin or profit margin improvement comes from volume growth, price increase, or cost reduction
  • Whether downstream demand changes have been fed back to upstream or midstream links
Signals of each link should correspond to verifiable variables as much as possible, avoiding abstract judgments.

Step 4：分析传导路径与节奏错位

Step 4: Analyze Transmission Paths and Rhythm Dislocations

产业链机会常来自传导的先后顺序。要重点说明：
  • 当前景气变化最先出现在哪一环
  • 哪些环节已经兑现，哪些环节尚未被市场充分定价
  • 传导为何可能中断、延迟或反向发生
  • 哪些环节会出现“收入先改善、利润后改善”或相反的错位
Opportunities in the industrial chain often come from the order of transmission. Focus on explaining:
  • Which link the current prosperity change first appears in
  • Which links have already realized benefits, and which links have not been fully priced by the market
  • Why transmission may be interrupted, delayed, or reversed
  • Which links will have dislocations such as "revenue improves first, profit improves later" or the opposite

Step 5：提炼链条中的受益方、承压方与关键验证点

Step 5: Refine Beneficiaries, Pressure-bearing Parties, and Key Verification Points in the Chain

在传导路径明确后，提炼：
  • 当前最直接受益的环节与代表公司
  • 可能受压制的环节与风险来源
  • 若判断成立，接下来最值得观察的验证变量
  • 若判断失效，最先暴露问题的链条位置
After clarifying the transmission path, refine:
  • The most directly benefited links and representative companies at present
  • Links that may be suppressed and sources of risks
  • If the judgment is valid, the most worthy verification variables to observe next
  • If the judgment fails, the chain position where problems will be exposed first

Step 6：形成产业链信号成稿

Step 6: Form the Industrial Chain Signal Final Draft

最终输出应帮助使用者把链条看清楚，知道应盯哪一环、信哪一类信号、回避哪类表面繁荣。成稿只呈现链条结构、关键变量、传导结论和观察框架。
The final output should help users clearly understand the chain, know which link to monitor, which type of signals to trust, and which type of superficial prosperity to avoid. The draft only presents the chain structure, key variables, transmission conclusions, and observation framework.

输出结构

Output Structure

{产业链名称}信号梳理（{YYYY-MM-DD}）

{Industrial Chain Name} Signal Review ({YYYY-MM-DD})

一、30 秒结论

I. 30-Second Conclusion

  • 当前最强环节：{内容}
  • 当前最弱环节：{内容}
  • 价值正在向哪一段传导：{内容}
  • 当前最值得跟踪的链条机会：{内容}
  • Strongest Link Currently: {Content}
  • Weakest Link Currently: {Content}
  • Segment Where Value is Transmitting: {Content}
  • Most Worthwhile Chain Opportunity to Track Currently: {Content}

二、产业链结构图

II. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram

环节主要作用关键变量当前状态
上游{内容}{内容}{判断}
中游{内容}{内容}{判断}
下游{内容}{内容}{判断}
LinkMain FunctionKey VariablesCurrent Status
Upstream{Content}{Content}{Judgment}
Midstream{Content}{Content}{Judgment}
Downstream{Content}{Content}{Judgment}

三、链条核心信号

III. Core Chain Signals

  • 价格信号：{内容}
  • 订单/出货信号：{内容}
  • 库存信号：{内容}
  • 盈利信号：{内容}
  • Price Signal: {Content}
  • Order/Shipment Signal: {Content}
  • Inventory Signal: {Content}
  • Profit Signal: {Content}

四、传导路径与节奏判断

IV. Transmission Path and Rhythm Judgment

  • 当前传导起点：{内容}
  • 下一步可能受益环节：{内容}
  • 传导可能中断的原因：{内容}
  • Current Transmission Starting Point: {Content}
  • Next Potential Beneficiary Links: {Content}
  • Reasons for Possible Transmission Interruption: {Content}

五、受益与风险映射

V. Beneficiary and Risk Mapping

  • 受益方：{内容}
  • 承压方：{内容}
  • 关键验证点：{内容}
  • Beneficiaries: {Content}
  • Pressure-bearing Parties: {Content}
  • Key Verification Points: {Content}

六、后续观察清单

VI. Subsequent Observation List

  • {观察点 1}
  • {观察点 2}
  • {观察点 3}
  • {Observation Point 1}
  • {Observation Point 2}
  • {Observation Point 3}

质量要求

Quality Requirements

  1. 产业链分析必须体现“结构、信号、传导、验证”四个层次，不能只写行业概览。
  2. 要明确价值落点和传导方向，避免把所有环节平均处理。
  3. 需区分已经兑现的景气与尚未兑现的预期，提升判断可操作性。
  4. 若链条信号彼此冲突，应把冲突点写清楚，而不是强行统一。
  5. 输出要能直接服务链条研究、比较环节机会和验证景气变化。
  1. Industrial chain analysis must reflect the four levels of "structure, signal, transmission, verification", and cannot only write industry overviews.
  2. Clearly identify value landing points and transmission directions, avoiding equal treatment of all links.
  3. Distinguish between realized prosperity and unrealized expectations to improve the operability of judgments.
  4. If chain signals conflict with each other, clearly write down the conflict points instead of forcing unification.
  5. The output should directly serve chain research, link opportunity comparison, and prosperity change verification.