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valuation_snapshot_skill

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Valuation Snapshot Skill

Valuation Snapshot Skill

数据依赖与执行前置条件

Data Dependencies and Pre-execution Requirements

推荐使用万得 
wind-mcp-skill
获取底层数据。执行前先检查本地是否已有 
wind-mcp-skill
；若没有，提示用户安装：
bash
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It is recommended to use Wind's 
wind-mcp-skill
to obtain underlying data. Before execution, check if 
wind-mcp-skill
is already available locally; if not, prompt the user to install it:
bash
undefined

GitHub

GitHub

npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Gitee 镜像（国内）

Gitee 镜像（国内）

npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
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npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
undefined

技能定位

Skill Positioning

本技能用于快速回答“这只股票现在大致贵不贵”，并解释贵或便宜背后对应的市场预期。输出重点不是做完整估值模型，而是在有限时间内，用合适的估值口径、历史分位和同业对照，形成对当前赔率的初步判断。
This skill is used to quickly answer "whether this stock is roughly expensive or not" and explain the market expectations behind its expensiveness or cheapness. The focus of the output is not to build a complete valuation model, but to form a preliminary judgment on the current odds using appropriate valuation calibers, historical quantiles, and peer comparisons within a limited time.

执行流程

Execution Process

Step 1：确认适用的估值视角

Step 1: Confirm the Applicable Valuation Perspective

先判断公司更适合用什么估值口径来观察，常见包括：
  • 盈利驱动型公司，看利润类倍数
  • 高增长或利润未稳定公司，看收入类倍数
  • 资产属性明显公司，看净资产或重置价值
  • 周期属性明显公司，看景气位置与中枢估值
若公司处于特殊阶段，应明确说明传统估值口径可能失真。
First determine which valuation caliber is more suitable for observing the company. Common ones include:
  • Profit-driven companies: focus on profit multiples
  • High-growth or companies with unstable profits: focus on revenue multiples
  • Companies with obvious asset attributes: focus on net assets or replacement value
  • Companies with obvious cyclical attributes: focus on boom position and central valuation
If the company is in a special stage, it should be clearly stated that traditional valuation calibers may be distorted.

Step 2：提取当前估值水平与历史区间

Step 2: Extract Current Valuation Level and Historical Range

收集当前估值指标，并尽可能放回历史坐标中判断：
  • 当前处于历史高位、中位还是低位
  • 相较过去几个关键阶段是否明显溢价或折价
  • 当前估值是否已显著偏离自身经营变化速度
若历史数据本身受极端事件影响，应单独说明，不可机械使用。
Collect current valuation indicators and judge them against historical coordinates as much as possible:
  • Whether it is currently at a historical high, medium, or low position
  • Whether there is a significant premium or discount compared to several key stages in the past
  • Whether the current valuation has significantly deviated from the speed of its own operational changes
If historical data is affected by extreme events, it should be explained separately and cannot be used mechanically.

Step 3：加入同业与行业参照

Step 3: Add Peer and Industry References

估值判断不能只看自身历史，还要看相对位置：
  • 同行业龙头与二线公司的估值差异
  • 市场给予溢价或折价的常见理由
  • 当前公司所处位置是否合理反映其竞争地位、增长质量和风险结构
若是主题股或高波动股票，还要留意情绪因素对估值的短期扭曲。
Valuation judgment cannot only rely on its own history, but also needs to consider relative positions:
  • Valuation differences between leading and second-tier companies in the same industry
  • Common reasons for the market to give premiums or discounts
  • Whether the current position of the company reasonably reflects its competitive status, growth quality, and risk structure
If it is a theme stock or a highly volatile stock, pay attention to the short-term distortion of valuation caused by emotional factors.

Step 4：解释“估值位置”背后的预期要求

Step 4: Explain the Expectation Requirements Behind "Valuation Position"

真正有用的估值判断，不是“倍数高/低”本身，而是：
  • 现在的价格隐含了多强的增长与盈利改善假设
  • 未来需要兑现哪些条件，当前估值才站得住
  • 哪些变量一旦失手，估值最容易被压缩
这一步要把估值和经营变量重新连接起来。
Truly useful valuation judgment is not the "high/low multiple" itself, but:
  • How strong growth and profit improvement assumptions are implied by the current price
  • Which conditions need to be fulfilled in the future for the current valuation to be justified
  • Which variables, if missed, will most easily lead to valuation compression
This step requires reconnecting valuation with operational variables.

Step 5：判断重估或去估值的触发因素

Step 5: Judge Trigger Factors for Revaluation or De-valuation

列出未来最可能改变估值水平的因素，例如：
  • 财报超预期或低于预期
  • 业务结构改善或恶化
  • 行业景气趋势变化
  • 政策、融资、市场风格切换
帮助使用者理解估值不是静态数字，而是动态预期的结果。
List the factors most likely to change the valuation level in the future, such as:
  • Financial reports exceeding or falling short of expectations
  • Improvement or deterioration of business structure
  • Changes in industry boom trends
  • Policy, financing, and market style switches
Help users understand that valuation is not a static number, but the result of dynamic expectations.

Step 6：输出简洁结论与使用建议

Step 6: Output Concise Conclusions and Usage Suggestions

最终明确回答：
  • 这只股票当前估值大致处于什么位置
  • 这个位置是合理、偏高还是偏低
  • 更适合继续观察、逢低关注，还是需要更强兑现才值得接近
Finally give clear answers to:
  • Where the current valuation of this stock roughly stands
  • Whether this position is reasonable, high, or low
  • Whether it is more suitable to continue observing, pay attention on dips, or wait for stronger fulfillment before approaching

输出结构

Output Structure

{股票名称}估值快照（{YYYY-MM-DD}）

Valuation Snapshot of {Stock Name} ({YYYY-MM-DD})

一、估值结论

I. Valuation Conclusion

  • 当前估值判断：{偏低 / 合理 / 偏高}
  • 历史位置：{低位 / 中位 / 高位}
  • 同业相对位置：{折价 / 接近 / 溢价}
  • Current Valuation Judgment: {Undervalued / Reasonable / Overvalued}
  • Historical Position: {Low / Medium / High}
  • Relative Position Among Peers: {Discounted / Close / Premium}

二、估值核心表

II. Core Valuation Table

维度当前情况解读
主要估值口径{指标}{为何适用}
当前水平{数值}{说明}
历史分位{位置}{说明}
同业对比{结果}{说明}
DimensionCurrent SituationInterpretation
Main Valuation Caliber{Indicator}{Why It's Applicable}
Current Level{Value}{Explanation}
Historical Quantile{Position}{Explanation}
Peer Comparison{Result}{Explanation}

三、当前价格隐含了什么预期

III. What Expectations Are Implied by the Current Price

  • {预期 1}
  • {预期 2}
  • {预期 3}
  • {Expectation 1}
  • {Expectation 2}
  • {Expectation 3}

四、为什么会有溢价或折价

IV. Why There Is a Premium or Discount

溢价/折价理由

Reasons for Premium/Discount

  • {理由 1}
  • {理由 2}
  • {Reason 1}
  • {Reason 2}

不合理之处

Unreasonable Points

  • {不合理点 1}
  • {不合理点 2}
  • {Unreasonable Point 1}
  • {Unreasonable Point 2}

五、未来估值变化的关键触发

V. Key Triggers for Future Valuation Changes

  • 有利于重估的条件：{条件}
  • 导致去估值的风险：{条件}
  • Conditions Conducive to Revaluation: {Conditions}
  • Risks Leading to De-valuation: {Conditions}

六、使用建议

VI. Usage Suggestions

  • 适合的动作：{继续观察 / 等验证 / 可重点跟踪}
  • 最该盯住的变量：{变量}
  • Suitable Actions: {Continue Observing / Wait for Verification / Focus on Tracking}
  • Key Variables to Monitor: {Variable}

质量要求

Quality Requirements

  1. 先选对估值口径，再谈高低，不能机械套用单一倍数。
  2. 估值结论必须回到经营与预期，不可停留在数字表层。
  3. 历史与同业对照都要讲清口径和边界，避免误导性比较。
  4. 若公司处于异常阶段，应明确指出估值参考的局限性。
  5. 输出应服务“赔率判断”，而不是把估值写成孤立数学题。
  1. Choose the correct valuation caliber before discussing whether it's high or low; do not mechanically apply a single multiple.
  2. Valuation conclusions must be linked back to operations and expectations; do not stay at the surface of numbers.
  3. When comparing with history and peers, clarify the caliber and boundaries to avoid misleading comparisons.
  4. If the company is in an abnormal stage, clearly point out the limitations of valuation references.
  5. The output should serve "odds judgment" instead of writing valuation as an isolated math problem.