skills/thesis-drift.md

• Treat

  $ARGUMENTS

  as the user's request in the current Codex thread.
• When the source mentions Claude-only surfaces such as Task, Agent, WebSearch, Bash, Read, or Write, use the closest Codex capability available in this session: subagents when available, web search when needed, shell commands for local tools, and normal file edits for workspace files.
• Use shared project tools from

  tools/

  in this repository. Prefer running commands from the repository root with paths like

  python3 tools/financial_rigor.py ...

  ; if the current thread starts outside the repo, locate the actual checkout path first instead of assuming a fixed home-directory path.
• Before starting research, run the

  date

  command to confirm today's date; treat it as the baseline for "latest" data and state the data cutoff date in the report header. Never assume the current date from training data.
• Preserve the research quality rules from

  AGENTS.md

  : cross-check financial data, use exact arithmetic tools for valuation/math, and clearly label uncertainty and source gaps.

• Company Name Old Report Path New Report Path

  — Specify two research reports or thesis snapshots for comparison

• Company Name reports/{Company Name}-thesis-old-date.md reports/{Company Name}-thesis-new-date.md

  — Compare two dated thesis snapshots

• Company Name

  — Automatically find

  reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

  and historical snapshots in the same directory; if no baseline exists, proceed to missing baseline handling

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?" — John Maynard Keynes

"Stock price fluctuations are not thesis drift; only fact changes are." — AI Berkshire

• Fact Changes: Verifiable changes in revenue, profit margins, competitive landscape, management behavior, and capital allocation
• Price Changes: Changes in market sentiment or valuation multiples, but the business itself remains unchanged
• Wording Changes: Two reports express differently, but the underlying evidence and judgments remain unchanged

/thesis-tracker

$ARGUMENTS

• If two report paths are provided → Enter Specified Report Comparison mode
• If only the company name is provided → Find

  reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

  and historical snapshots, enter Automatic Snapshot Comparison mode
• If only one report is found or no historical baseline exists → Enter Missing Baseline Handling mode
• If the two reports are not for the same company → Stop and ask the user to confirm, do not make cross-company drift judgments

• Report date, company name, stock symbol
• Core thesis (5 sentences)
• Core assumption list
• Red line list
• Valuation anchor
• Tracking record table
• Management quality judgment
• Competitive moat judgment
• Current recommended action (Buy / Hold / Watch / Reduce / Exit)

• Financial statement items: e.g., revenue growth rate, gross profit margin, operating cash flow, repurchase amount, net cash
• Regulatory disclosures: e.g., 10-K/20-F, annual report, interim report, HKEX announcement, SEC filing
• News events: e.g., management changes, regulatory penalties, major customer loss, competitor breakthroughs
• Price and valuation: Must explain whether this is "valuation change" or "fundamental change", cannot confuse the two

1. Is the thesis drifting? No Drift / Positive Drift / Negative Drift / Insufficient Evidence to Judge
2. Where does the drift come from? Valuation / Fundamentals / Management / Competitive Landscape / Red Line Event
3. Is it a fact change or a price change? Clearly explain separately
4. How to migrate recommended actions? e.g., Watch → Buy, Buy → Hold, Hold → Reduce, Reduce → Exit
5. What evidence is needed next? Next financial report / Regulatory disclosure / Management explanation / Competitor data

reports/

• reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

• reports/{Company Name}-thesis-*.md

• Reports containing "thesis", "论文", or "追踪" in the

  reports/{Company Name}/

  directory

• Company name or stock symbol is consistent
• Report dates are different
• Both reports contain extractable thesis structures or research conclusions

1. Clearly state: Missing comparable historical baseline, cannot perform drift detection
2. Do not fabricate an old thesis based on memory or market impressions
3. Guide the user to first establish a structured baseline using

   /thesis-tracker {Company Name} Establish Thesis

4. If the current report is complete enough, suggest saving it as

   reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

   as the baseline for future drift detection

Cannot perform thesis drift detection: Missing historical baseline.

Found:
- Current Report: {Path / Not Found}
- Historical Baseline: Not Found

Recommendations:
1. First run /thesis-tracker {Company Name} Establish Thesis
2. After the next financial report or major event, run /thesis-drift {Company Name} Old Report New Report

• Evidence takes precedence over wording — Synonymous rewrites are not drift; only changes in factual evidence are drift
• Fundamentals take precedence over stock price — Stock price fluctuations only affect valuation anchors, do not automatically change business quality
• Numerical values must be verified — All percentages, valuation multiples, and target price differences must use

  tools/financial_rigor.py

• Mark uncertainty when uncertain — Do not force a judgment when sources are missing, calibers are inconsistent, or unreviewable
• Red lines are handled separately — Red line triggering takes priority over cheap valuation, cannot be covered by low PE
• Output must be reproducible — Each Improved / Weakened conclusion must be traceable to specific evidence