Codex adapter note

This skill is generated from

skills/thesis-tracker.md

so Claude Code and Codex users share one canonical workflow.

Treat
```
$ARGUMENTS
```
as the user's request in the current Codex thread.
When the source mentions Claude-only surfaces such as Task, Agent, WebSearch, Bash, Read, or Write, use the closest Codex capability available in this session: subagents when available, web search when needed, shell commands for local tools, and normal file edits for workspace files.
Use shared project tools from
```
tools/
```
in this repository. Prefer running commands from the repository root with paths like
```
python3 tools/financial_rigor.py ...
```
; if the current thread starts outside the repo, locate the actual checkout path first instead of assuming a fixed home-directory path.
Before starting research, run the
```
date
```
command to confirm today's date; treat it as the baseline for "latest" data and state the data cutoff date in the report header. Never assume the current date from training data.
Preserve the research quality rules from
```
AGENTS.md
```
: cross-check financial data, use exact arithmetic tools for valuation/math, and clearly label uncertainty and source gaps.

Investment Thesis Tracker: Post-Purchase Discipline System

Perform investment thesis tracking checks on $ARGUMENTS.

Supported Input Formats:

```
Company Name
```
— Establish an investment thesis on first use, perform tracking checks on subsequent uses
```
Company Name Establish Thesis
```
— Force re-establishment of the investment thesis
```
Company Name Quarterly Check
```
— Perform thesis check based on the latest financial report

"Buying is just the beginning. The real work is continuous tracking during holding." — Li Lu

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?" — John Maynard Keynes

Design Philosophy

Most investors' process is: Research → Buy → Pray. The lack of systematic tracking after purchase leads to:

Reluctance to sell when it's time to ("Wait a bit longer, it will rebound")
Panic selling when it shouldn't be done ("It's dropped 20%, was I wrong?")
Forgetting why they bought it in the first place ("Why did I buy this again?")

Warren Buffett and Li Lu's approach is: Write down the selling conditions before buying. Then review the thesis every quarter to ensure its integrity.

Execution Process

Step 1: Determine Operation Mode

Check if the company's investment thesis file (

reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

) exists:

If it doesn't exist → Enter Establish Thesis mode
If it exists → Enter Tracking Check mode
If not found but the user claims it exists → Ask for the file path

Mode A: Establish Investment Thesis

A0: Data Collection

Use WebSearch to obtain current stock price, valuation metrics (PE/PB/dividend yield), and core data from the latest financial report for filling in valuation anchors. If there are existing

/investment-research

/investment-team

reports for the company, prioritize reading from them.

Use

tools/financial_rigor.py verify-valuation

to validate valuation data.

A1: Core Thesis (Must be written within 200 words)

The investment thesis must answer the following 5 questions, one sentence per question:

I bought ___ company at ___ yuan because:
1. The nature of this business is ___, and I understand how it makes money
2. Its moat is ___, and it is widening/stable
3. The management is ___, and the reason for trust is ___
4. The current price is a ___ discount to intrinsic value, and the margin of safety comes from ___
5. Even if I'm wrong, the downside risk is controllable because ___

If you can't complete these 5 sentences, the thesis itself is problematic — it means the buying decision isn't clear enough.

A2: Core Assumption List

Break down the investment thesis into verifiable specific assumptions:

#	Core Assumption	Verification Method	Verification Frequency	Current Status
1	Example: Revenue growth remains at 15%+	Quarterly report revenue growth	Quarterly	🟢 Valid
2	Example: Gross margin stabilizes at 60%+	Quarterly report gross margin	Quarterly	🟢 Valid
3	Example: Management continues share repurchases	Repurchase announcements/cash flow statement	Quarterly	🟢 Valid
4	Example: Competitors have not made breakthroughs	Industry data/competitors' financial reports	Semi-annually	🟢 Valid
5	...	...	...	...

Usually 3-7 assumptions. Too few means insufficient thinking, too many means the thesis is not focused enough.

A3: Red Line List (Triggering any item = Must re-evaluate)

#	Red Line Condition	Severity	Action After Trigger
1	Example: Management integrity issues (financial fraud, related-party transactions)	Fatal	Liquidate immediately
2	Example: Core business revenue declines for 2 consecutive quarters	Severe	Reduce position by 50% and re-evaluate
3	Example: Moat is clearly breached (competitors gain equivalent capabilities)	Severe	Launch in-depth research and consider exiting
4	Example: Regulatory policies fundamentally change the business model	Severe	Re-evaluate intrinsic value
5	Example: Large-scale management share reduction (unplanned)	Warning	Conduct in-depth investigation into the reason

Duan Yongping: "There are only three reasons to sell: 1. Found out I bought the wrong one; 2. The company's fundamentals have changed; 3. Found a better one."

A4: Valuation Anchors

Indicator	At Purchase	Optimistic Target	Neutral Target	Pessimistic Scenario
Stock Price
PE
Market Capitalization
Intrinsic Value Estimate
Margin of Safety

A5: Save Thesis

Write the investment thesis to

reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

, including:

Establishment date
Purchase price and position
Core thesis (5 sentences)
Core assumption list
Red line list
Valuation anchors
Tracking record table (initially empty)

Mode B: Tracking Check

B1: Read Existing Thesis

Read

reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

and load:

Core thesis
Core assumption list
Red line list
Last check record

B2: Collect Latest Data

Use WebSearch to collect:

Latest financial report data (if new quarterly/annual reports are available)
Recent major events (management changes, regulatory policies, competitive dynamics)
Current stock price and valuation metrics
Insider trading records (major shareholders' share increases/reductions)

B3: Check Core Assumptions One by One

Verify each core assumption with the latest data:

#	Core Assumption	Last Status	Latest Evidence	Current Status	Change
1	Revenue growth 15%+	🟢 Valid	Q4 revenue growth 12%	🟡 Marginally Weakened	⚠️
2	Gross margin 60%+	🟢 Valid	Gross margin 61.2%	🟢 Valid	—
3	...	...	...	...	...

Status Definitions:

🟢 Valid — Latest data supports the assumption
🟡 Marginally Weakened — Data is still within acceptable range but the trend is unfavorable
🔴 Impaired — Data clearly does not support the assumption
⚫ Broken — The assumption has been overturned

B4: Red Line Check

Check each item in the red line list:

#	Red Line Condition	Triggered?	Evidence
1	Management integrity issues	❌ Not Triggered	—
2	Core business revenue declines for 2 consecutive quarters	❌ Not Triggered	—

If any red line is triggered → Mark prominently in the report and give clear action recommendations.

B5: Valuation Update

Indicator	At Purchase	Last Check	Current	Change
Stock Price
PE(TTM)
Intrinsic Value Estimate
Margin of Safety

B6: Output Tracking Report

Report Structure

1. Thesis Health Score (Full Score 10)
2. Core Assumption Check Results (Table)
3. Red Line Check Results (Table)
4. Key Changes This Period (No more than 500 words)
5. Valuation Update
6. Conclusion and Action Recommendations
7. Key Focus Areas for Next Check

Thesis Health Score Criteria

Calculation Formula: Health Score = 10 - (Number of ⚫ Broken Assumptions ×3) - (Number of 🔴 Impaired Assumptions ×2) - (Number of 🟡 Weakened Assumptions ×1) - (Number of Triggered Red Lines ×5), minimum 1 point, maximum 10 points.

Score	Meaning	Recommended Action
9-10	All assumptions are valid, thesis is stronger than at purchase	Consider increasing position
7-8	Core assumptions are valid,个别 marginally weakened	Continue holding
5-6	1-2 assumptions are impaired, but core logic remains unchanged	Hold but increase vigilance
3-4	Multiple assumptions are impaired, thesis foundation is shaken	Consider reducing position
1-2	Red line triggered or core assumptions broken	Strongly recommend selling

Conclusion Must Clearly Answer

Is the thesis still intact? Intact / Marginally Weakened / Impaired / Broken
What should be done? Increase Position / Hold / Reduce Position / Liquidate
Next Check Time: After next quarterly report release / After a specific event

B7: Update Thesis File

Append this check record to the tracking record table in

reports/{Company Name}-thesis.md

Check Date	Health Score	Core Changes	Action Recommendation
2026-04-09	7/10	Revenue growth slowed to 12%, but profit margin improved	Hold

Key Principles

Write selling conditions before buying — Decisions made calmly are better than those made in panic
Thesis must be specific enough to be verifiable — "The company is good" is not a thesis; "ROE>25% and trend is stable" is
Act immediately when red line is triggered — The worst thing is "Wait and see", which is the start of big losses
Thesis broken ≠ Stock price drop — You don't have to sell if the stock drops 30%, only when the thesis is broken
Be honest about mistakes — Admit if the thesis was built wrong, don't hold on for face

thesis-tracker

NPX Install

Tags

SKILL.md Content (Chinese)