Renewal Forecast =
  (Green × 95%) +
  (Yellow × 80%) +
  (Orange × 50%) +
  (Red × 25%)

## Renewal Playbook: 90-Day Process

### Healthy Customer (Health Score >75)

**Goal:** Renew with expansion or multi-year

**Day 120: Pre-Renewal Check**
- [ ] Review health score and trends
- [ ] Check expansion opportunities
- [ ] Prepare value summary

**Day 90: Renewal Kickoff**
- [ ] Send renewal notice email
- [ ] Schedule value review call
- [ ] Prepare ROI documentation

**Day 75: Value Review Call (45 min)**
Agenda:
1. Relationship check (5 min)
2. Value delivered review (15 min)
3. 2026 priorities (10 min)
4. Renewal discussion (10 min)
5. Next steps (5 min)

Script: "Based on [X value delivered], we'd love to continue our partnership. I'd like to discuss options for next year, including a multi-year agreement that could give you better terms."

**Day 60: Proposal**
- Standard or upgrade proposal
- Multi-year option (5-10% discount)
- Expansion options

**Day 45-14: Light Follow-Up**
- Procurement coordination
- Answer questions
- Minimal negotiation

**Day 0: Close**
- Expected close rate: 95%
- Expected expansion: 10-20%

---

### At-Risk Customer (Health Score <50)

**Goal:** Save the account, then renew

**Day 120: Risk Assessment**
- [ ] Deep dive on health issues
- [ ] Identify root cause
- [ ] Develop save plan
- [ ] Alert leadership

**Day 90: Save Plan Activation**
- [ ] Executive sponsor outreach
- [ ] Service recovery actions
- [ ] Address root causes

**Day 75: Executive Check-In**
- [ ] VP/Director involvement
- [ ] Commitment to resolution
- [ ] Timeline for improvement

**Day 60: Renewal Conversation**
Only if health improving:
- Acknowledge challenges
- Show commitment to success
- Flexible terms if needed

**Day 45: Negotiation**
Options to consider:
- Short-term renewal (6 months)
- Reduced scope/price
- Success-based terms

**Day 30: Decision Point**
If not improving:
- Prepare for potential churn
- Discuss graceful exit options
- Maintain relationship

**Expected Outcomes:**
- Save rate: 40-50%
- Full renewal: 25%
- Reduced renewal: 15%
- Churn: 50-60%

Q2 Renewals:
- 10 accounts, $1.2M ARR total

Health distribution:
- Green: 4 accounts ($500K)
- Yellow: 3 accounts ($400K)
- Orange: 2 accounts ($200K)
- Red: 1 account ($100K)

## Q2 Renewal Forecast

### By Health Segment

| Health | Accounts | ARR | Prob | Forecast |
|--------|----------|-----|------|----------|
| 🟢 Green | 4 | $500K | 95% | $475K |
| 🟡 Yellow | 3 | $400K | 80% | $320K |
| 🟠 Orange | 2 | $200K | 50% | $100K |
| 🔴 Red | 1 | $100K | 25% | $25K |
| **Total** | **10** | **$1.2M** | | **$920K** |

### Forecast Summary
- **Base Forecast:** $920K (77% of total)
- **At Risk:** $280K (23% of total)
- **Expected Churn:** $280K

### Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Retention | ARR |
|----------|-----------|-----|
| Best Case | 90% | $1.08M |
| Base Case | 77% | $920K |
| Worst Case | 60% | $720K |

### Actions to Improve

**To reach 85% retention ($1.02M):**
1. Convert 1 Yellow → Green (+$20K)
2. Save 1 Orange account (+$100K)
3. Maintain Green at 95%

**Priority Actions:**
| Account | Health | ARR | Action |
|---------|--------|-----|--------|
| OrangeCo #1 | 🟠 | $120K | Executive save plan |
| OrangeCo #2 | 🟠 | $80K | Success intervention |
| RedCorp | 🔴 | $100K | Last-resort save or exit |