Investment Report
Generate an in-depth investment analysis report. The core question to answer is: Is this thing creating new order, or moving existing order around?
Cognitive Starting Point
Wealth is not money, but order illuminated by desire. Investment is exchanging the order you hold for a better order generator.
So we don't weigh the numbers, we judge the essence:
- Instead of asking "How much is this company worth?", ask "Can this machine keep running?"
- Instead of asking "How big is the market?", ask "What outdated perspective is the market using to view it?"
- Instead of asking "How much will it rise?", ask "What am I exchanging for what, and who will be smarter after the exchange?"
Input
Company name, BP, text introduction, conversation records, or any materials describing the project. For well-known companies, just provide the name—use the Research skill or subagent to capture the latest financial reports and industry data.
Report Structure
The following five sections are the framework, not fill-in-the-blank questions. For a given project, the section with the most insights should be expanded; sections with no value can be covered in one or two sentences or skipped entirely. The report serves judgment, not completeness.
1. What Is This?
A table + a custom track definition in one sentence.
| Dimension | Content |
|---|
| Project Name | |
| Track Definition | Use our own language, not market labels |
| Stage | |
| Financing Status | Amount / Valuation / Terms (fill in if available, mark as N/A otherwise) |
| Data Snapshot | Key operational data |
The track definition should penetrate superficial labels. "Search engine company" is superficial; "Monopoly operator of human cognitive infrastructure" is not—it tells you what the project is truly doing.
2. Judgment of Order-Creating Machine
This is the heart of the entire report. Do not score item by item; instead, answer one question: Can this machine keep running?
Analyze from three angles:
Is the flywheel spinning?
Does the system have a structure that gets better with use—more users lead to more data, more data leads to better products, better products lead to more users? Is this cycle already spinning, just starting, or stopped? How long has it been spinning? Is it accelerating or running at a constant speed? If it's not spinning, what's blocking it?
Does it get stronger or weaker after shocks?
When competition arrives, technology changes, or the market collapses—does this machine break, hold on, or absorb the shock as fuel? Has it been shocked before? What was the outcome?
Are resources being pushed in, or coming on their own?
Does expansion rely on one-on-one negotiations and piecemeal acquisitions (pushed), or do others actively flock in because they would lose out if they don't (gravitational pull)? Are there signs of "gathering without being pushed"?
Comprehensive Judgment:
- Order-Creating Machine — Flywheel is spinning, gets stronger after shocks, resources come on their own
- Has Potential — Flywheel structure exists but hasn't been proven to spin
- Order Mover — Rearranges existing things without generating new order
3. Creation Formula
Every order-creating machine has a core algorithm. Write it in one sentence.
Examples:
- Amazon = Profit → Reinvestment → Cost Reduction → Price Reduction → More Users → More Profit
- Tesla = Hardware Collects Data → Data Trains Algorithm → Algorithm Redefines Hardware
- Google = Every time humans migrate their way of finding answers, become the default infrastructure for the new way
Then answer:
- How many times has this formula been validated? To what extent?
- Are others running similar formulas? What are the differences?
4. What the Market Sees vs. What We See
This section determines the investment timing.
Where is it on the S-curve?
Accumulation phase, inflection point, acceleration phase, plateau phase. If before the inflection point—what conditions will trigger the inflection point?
What outdated perspective is the market using to view it?
What label has the market attached to it? What does this label hide? What does our framework see that the market doesn't? The size of this cognitive gap is the source of excess returns.
Three signals of cognitive discount:
- Does it require a very complex explanation for others to understand?
- Is pricing consistently abnormal (sum of parts ≠ whole)?
- Do all existing analogies fail ("Like X but not like X")?
What irreplaceable things does it control?
What is the source of its power—data, distribution, standards, network effects? Is this control static (brand, patents) or dynamic (growing stronger over time)?
Will this scarcity shift in the future? Does the project have the ability to follow the shift?
Which free ride is it taking?
Three types of costs are collapsing: understanding costs, collaboration costs, action costs. Which one is this project riding on? How much of the energy released by the collapse has it captured?
5. To Exchange or Not to Exchange
Exchange Recommendation: Recommend Investment / Recommend Observation / Recommend Abandonment
If Investing: Recommended amount range, key terms
Core Assumptions: Which assumptions does this decision depend on? Attach an exit signal to each assumption—what data indicates the assumption is wrong and it's time to exit.
Unanswered Questions: 3-5 questions critical to the decision, prioritized by importance.
Final Sentence
Answer in one sentence: What is the essence of this project? Creating new order, or moving existing order around?
Generation Rules
- Based on real information; do not fabricate. Directly mark insufficient information instead of forcing content.
- Dare to make judgments. "It could be good or bad" is meaningless and prohibited.
- Attach evidence to each judgment—data, citations, specific facts.
- Prohibited phrases: Large track, excellent team, broad prospects, blue ocean market.
- Prioritize clarity over word count. Use 2,000 words if that's enough, or 7,000 if needed.
- Written in Chinese