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crypto-analysis

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Chinese

Crypto Analysis Skill

Crypto Analysis Skill

做市商视角的加密货币技术分析框架。
A cryptocurrency technical analysis framework from a market maker's perspective.

核心原则

Core Principles

#原则
1做市商视角 — 站在流动性提供者/庄家角度思考
2结构推演 — 禁止直接给"看涨/看跌"结论，必须通过结构推演
3多路径思维 — 必须输出 3 条以上可能路径
4可证伪性 — 所有判断必须附带否定条件
5概率量化 — 路径概率必须给具体数值（如 55%）
#Principle
1Market Maker Perspective – Think from the standpoint of liquidity providers/market makers
2Structural Deduction – Forbid directly giving "bullish/bearish" conclusions; must rely on structural deduction
3Multi-Path Thinking – Must output 3 or more possible scenarios
4Falsifiability – All judgments must be accompanied by negation conditions
5Probability Quantification – Path probabilities must be given specific values (e.g., 55%)

数据获取

Data Acquisition

每次分析必须调用币安 API 获取实时数据。参考 
references/api-endpoints.md
获取完整端点列表。
Real-time data must be retrieved via the Binance API for each analysis. Refer to 
references/api-endpoints.md
for the complete list of endpoints.

必需数据

Required Data

  1. K 线数据：获取指定周期的 OHLCV 数据
  2. 资金费率：判断市场情绪极端值
  3. 持仓量（OI）：多空力量对比
  4. 多空比：大户和散户持仓比例
  1. K-line Data: Retrieve OHLCV data for the specified interval
  2. Funding Rate: Identify extreme market sentiment levels
  3. Open Interest (OI): Compare bullish and bearish forces
  4. Long/Short Ratio: Ratio of positions held by large traders vs retail traders

API 调用示例

API Call Examples

bash
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bash
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K 线数据（合约）

K 线数据（合约）

curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=1h&limit=100"
curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=1h&limit=100"

资金费率

资金费率

curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=1"
curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=1"

持仓量

持仓量

curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/openInterest?symbol=BTCUSDT"
curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/openInterest?symbol=BTCUSDT"

大户多空比

大户多空比

curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/futures/data/topLongShortAccountRatio?symbol=BTCUSDT&period=1h&limit=1"
undefined
curl -s "https://fapi.binance.com/futures/data/topLongShortAccountRatio?symbol=BTCUSDT&period=1h&limit=1"
undefined

指标计算

Indicator Calculation

获取 K 线数据后，计算以下指标。详细公式参考 
references/indicators.md
。
  • RSI (14)：超买超卖判断
  • MACD (12, 26, 9)：趋势动量
  • ATR (14)：波动率
  • 布林带 (20, 2)：波动区间和百分位
  • EMA (20, 50, 200)：趋势方向
After retrieving K-line data, calculate the following indicators. Refer to 
references/indicators.md
for detailed formulas.
  • RSI (14): Identify overbought/oversold conditions
  • MACD (12, 26, 9): Trend momentum
  • ATR (14): Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Volatility range and percentile
  • EMA (20, 50, 200): Trend direction

输出框架

Output Framework

数据面板

Data Panel

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 {SYMBOL}/USDT 永续合约 │ {INTERVAL} │ {TIME}            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 价格: ${PRICE}  │ 24h: {CHANGE}%  │ 成交量: ${VOL}         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 【持仓数据】                                                 │
│ OI: {OI} │ 资金费率: {RATE}% │ 多空比(大户): {RATIO}       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 【技术指标】                                                 │
│ RSI(14): {RSI} │ MACD: {DIF}/{DEA} │ ATR(14): ${ATR}       │
│ 布林: ${BOLL_UP} / ${BOLL_MID} / ${BOLL_DN} │ 带宽: {BW}%  │
│ EMA: 20=${EMA20} │ 50=${EMA50} │ 200=${EMA200}             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 {SYMBOL}/USDT Perpetual Contract │ {INTERVAL} │ {TIME}            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Price: ${PRICE}  │ 24h Change: {CHANGE}%  │ Trading Volume: ${VOL}         │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 【Position Data】                                                 │
│ OI: {OI} │ Funding Rate: {RATE}% │ Long/Short Ratio (Large Traders): {RATIO}       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 【Technical Indicators】                                                 │
│ RSI(14): {RSI} │ MACD: {DIF}/{DEA} │ ATR(14): ${ATR}       │
│ Bollinger Bands: ${BOLL_UP} / ${BOLL_MID} / ${BOLL_DN} │ Bandwidth: {BW}%  │
│ EMA: 20=${EMA20} │ 50=${EMA50} │ 200=${EMA200}             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

执行摘要

Executive Summary

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🎯 执行摘要                                                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 核心区间: $_____ – $_____                                   │
│ 做市阶段: □吸筹 □拉升 □派发 □再平衡 □诱导                    │
│ 庄家意图: _____________________________________             │
│ 陷阱对象: □追多者 □扛空者 □抄底者 □高杠杆                    │
│ 一句话: _______________________________________             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
完整输出模板参考 
references/analysis-template.md
。
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🎯 Executive Summary                                                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Core Range: $_____ – $_____                                   │
│ Market Making Phase: □Accumulation □Rally □Distribution □Rebalancing □Inducement                    │
│ Market Maker Intent: _____________________________________             │
│ Target of Trap: □Bull Chasers □Bear Holders □Bottom Fishers □High Leverage                    │
│ One-sentence Takeaway: _______________________________________             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Refer to 
references/analysis-template.md
for the complete output template.

分析流程

Analysis Process

单周期分析

Single-period Analysis

  1. 获取 K 线和衍生品数据
  2. 计算技术指标
  3. 输出数据面板和执行摘要
  4. 分析流动性分布和资金流向
  5. 判断做市阶段
  6. 输出多路径推演（3 条以上）
  7. 给出操作建议和关键监控点
  1. Retrieve K-line and derivative data
  2. Calculate technical indicators
  3. Output data panel and executive summary
  4. Analyze liquidity distribution and capital flow
  5. Determine market making phase
  6. Output multi-path deduction (3+ scenarios)
  7. Provide operational suggestions and key monitoring points

全周期分析（interval=full）

Full-period Analysis (interval=full)

依次获取 1d、4h、1h、15m 数据，输出多周期共振矩阵：
┌────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────────┬───────────────┬──────────┐
│ 周期   │ 趋势   │ RSI    │ MACD        │ 关键位        │ 信号强度  │
├────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────────┼───────────────┼──────────┤
│ 日线   │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
│ 4H     │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
│ 1H     │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
│ 15m    │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
└────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────────┴───────────────┴──────────┘
Retrieve 1d, 4h, 1h, 15m data sequentially and output a multi-period resonance matrix:
┌────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────────┬───────────────┬──────────┐
│ Interval │ Trend   │ RSI    │ MACD        │ Key Level        │ Signal Strength  │
├────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────────┼───────────────┼──────────┤
│ Daily │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
│ 4H     │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
│ 1H     │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
│ 15m    │ ↑/↓/— │ ___    │ ___         │ $_____        │ ★★★☆☆   │
└────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────────┴───────────────┴──────────┘

连续对话支持

Continuous Conversation Support

再分析

Re-analysis

当用户说「再分析」时：
  1. 重新获取最新数据
  2. 对照之前路径的否定条件
  3. 更新路径状态（✅ 有效 / ❌ 否定）
  4. 调整概率分配
When the user says "Re-analyze":
  1. Retrieve the latest data again
  2. Cross-reference with the negation conditions of previous paths
  3. Update path status (✅ Valid / ❌ Invalidated)
  4. Adjust probability allocation

复盘

Review

当用户说「复盘」时：
  1. 回顾初始判断与实际走势
  2. 标注哪些路径被验证/否定
  3. 分析关键转折点
  4. 提炼可迁移经验
When the user says "Review":
  1. Review initial judgments vs actual price action
  2. Mark which paths were validated/invalidated
  3. Analyze key turning points
  4. Extract transferable insights

注意事项

Notes

  • 所有价格必须精确到小数点后 2 位
  • 概率总和必须等于 100%
  • 禁止使用时事直接判断方向
  • 否定条件必须具体可验证
  • All prices must be accurate to 2 decimal places
  • The sum of probabilities must equal 100%
  • Forbid using current events to directly determine direction
  • Negation conditions must be specific and verifiable