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market_regime_switch_skill

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Original

English
🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Market Regime Switch Skill

Market Regime Switch Skill

数据依赖与执行前置条件

Data Dependencies and Pre-execution Conditions

推荐使用万得 
wind-mcp-skill
获取底层数据。执行前先检查本地是否已有 
wind-mcp-skill
；若没有，提示用户安装：
bash
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Recommended to use Wind's 
wind-mcp-skill
to obtain underlying data. Check if 
wind-mcp-skill
is already available locally before execution; if not, prompt the user to install it:
bash
undefined

GitHub

GitHub

npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Gitee 镜像（国内）

Gitee Mirror (Domestic China)

npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
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npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y
undefined

技能定位

Skill Positioning

本技能用于判断市场当前所处的整体状态，回答“现在是适合进攻、适合防守、适合精选个股，还是需要降低节奏；市场状态是否正在切换；这种切换由什么驱动”。输出重点不是一句简单的看多或看空，而是给出市场分档、证据框架、切换线索和仓位含义。
This skill is used to judge the overall current state of the market, answering questions such as "Is it suitable to be offensive, defensive, select individual stocks carefully, or slow down the pace now; is the market status switching; what drives this switch". The key output is not a simple bullish or bearish statement, but to provide market classification, evidence framework, switching clues and position implications.

执行流程

Execution Process

Step 1：确认观察窗口与决策目的

Step 1: Confirm Observation Window and Decision Purpose

先明确本次判断服务什么决策：
  • 是为了判断总仓位
  • 是为了选择成长、价值、周期或防御风格
  • 是为了周度策略更新
  • 是为了应对近期状态变化带来的节奏问题
同时确认观察窗口是短线、中线还是阶段性框架。若用户未说明，默认按“当前阶段市场状态”展开。
First clarify what decision this judgment serves:
  • To judge the total position
  • To select growth, value, cyclical or defensive styles
  • To update weekly strategies
  • To respond to rhythm issues caused by recent state changes
At the same time, confirm whether the observation window is short-term, medium-term or a phased framework. If the user does not specify, it will default to "current market phase status".

Step 2：建立市场状态判断框架

Step 2: Establish Market Status Judgment Framework

市场分档不能只看指数涨跌，需要综合以下层面：
  • 指数趋势与关键位置
  • 市场广度和参与度
  • 领涨方向是否清晰
  • 情绪温度与拥挤程度
  • 宏观环境、流动性与政策背景
  • 盈利预期或财报主线是否支持当前行情
这一阶段的目标是构建一个足以支持分档判断的完整框架。
Market classification cannot rely solely on index fluctuations, but needs to integrate the following aspects:
  • Index trend and key positions
  • Market breadth and participation
  • Clarity of leading directions
  • Sentiment temperature and crowding level
  • Macro environment, liquidity and policy background
  • Whether profit expectations or financial report themes support the current market
The goal of this stage is to build a complete framework sufficient to support classification judgment.

Step 3：进行市场状态分类

Step 3: Classify Market Status

在证据充分后，将市场大致分为以下状态之一：
  • 进攻阶段：风险偏好上升，主线清晰，扩散良好
  • 防守阶段：避险偏好抬升，资金集中在低波动方向
  • 震荡阶段：主线不清，轮动快，分化大
  • 切换阶段：原有主线松动，新方向尚在形成
分类时必须给出依据，而不是只下结论。
After sufficient evidence is gathered, the market is roughly classified into one of the following states:
  • Offensive phase: Rising risk appetite, clear main theme, good diffusion
  • Defensive phase: Rising risk aversion, capital concentrated in low-volatility directions
  • Oscillating phase: Unclear main theme, rapid rotation, large differentiation
  • Switching phase: Original main theme loosens, new direction is still forming
Basis must be provided during classification, not just conclusions.

Step 4：解释状态形成的主因与次因

Step 4: Explain Primary and Secondary Causes of Status Formation

进一步说明为何会形成当前状态，优先拆解：
  • 宏观与政策环境是否支持风险偏好
  • 资金面和风格偏好是否发生变化
  • 广度、情绪与主线是否相互验证
  • 若状态正在切换，切换的起点来自哪里
Further explain why the current status is formed, prioritizing the analysis of:
  • Whether the macro and policy environment supports risk appetite
  • Whether changes have occurred in capital flows and style preferences
  • Whether breadth, sentiment and main theme mutually verify each other
  • If the status is switching, where the switching starts from

Step 5：识别状态切换信号与失效条件

Step 5: Identify Status Switching Signals and Failure Conditions

阶段判断最重要的是可跟踪，因此需要明确：
  • 哪些信号能确认当前状态继续成立
  • 哪些变化意味着状态可能切换
  • 哪些风险会使当前判断快速失效
  • 若判断失效，市场更可能切到哪一档
The most important thing about phase judgment is trackability, so it is necessary to clarify:
  • Which signals can confirm the continuation of the current status
  • Which changes indicate possible status switching
  • Which risks will make the current judgment invalid quickly
  • If the judgment fails, which category the market is more likely to switch to

Step 6：形成市场状态判档成稿

Step 6: Finalize Market Status Classification Draft

最终输出应帮助使用者迅速知道“现在该用什么姿态面对市场”。正文只保留状态分类、证据说明、切换信号与仓位层面启发。
The final output should help users quickly know "what attitude to take towards the market now". Only retain status classification, evidence explanation, switching signals and position-level insights in the main text.

输出结构

Output Structure

市场状态判档（{YYYY-MM-DD}）

Market Status Classification ({YYYY-MM-DD})

一、30 秒结论

I. 30-Second Conclusion

  • 当前市场档位：{进攻 / 防守 / 震荡 / 切换}
  • 核心证据：{一句话}
  • 当前最适合的应对方式：{内容}
  • 最大风险点：{内容}
  • Current Market Category: {Offensive / Defensive / Oscillating / Switching}
  • Core Evidence: {One sentence}
  • Most Suitable Response: {Content}
  • Key Risk Point: {Content}

二、状态判断面板

II. Status Judgment Panel

维度当前状态对判档的含义
指数趋势{内容}{判断}
市场广度{内容}{判断}
主线清晰度{内容}{判断}
情绪温度{内容}{判断}
宏观/流动性环境{内容}{判断}
盈利预期支持{内容}{判断}
DimensionCurrent StatusImplication for Classification
Index Trend{Content}{Judgment}
Market Breadth{Content}{Judgment}
Clarity of Main Theme{Content}{Judgment}
Sentiment Temperature{Content}{Judgment}
Macro/Liquidity Environment{Content}{Judgment}
Profit Expectation Support{Content}{Judgment}

三、当前状态解读

III. Interpretation of Current Status

  • 为什么是这个档位：{内容}
  • 主因：{内容}
  • 次因：{内容}
  • Why this category: {Content}
  • Primary Cause: {Content}
  • Secondary Cause: {Content}

四、切换信号

IV. Switching Signals

  • 继续维持当前状态的条件：{内容}
  • 可能切换的前置信号：{内容}
  • 判断失效的标志：{内容}
  • Conditions for maintaining current status: {Content}
  • Pre-signals for possible switching: {Content}
  • Signs of judgment failure: {Content}

五、仓位与风格含义

V. Position and Style Implications

  • 总仓位启发：{内容}
  • 风格偏好启发：{内容}
  • 不宜做的动作：{内容}
  • Total Position Insights: {Content}
  • Style Preference Insights: {Content}
  • Actions to Avoid: {Content}

六、后续观察清单

VI. Follow-up Observation List

  • {观察点 1}
  • {观察点 2}
  • {观察点 3}
  • {Observation Point 1}
  • {Observation Point 2}
  • {Observation Point 3}

质量要求

Quality Requirements

  1. 市场状态判断必须基于多维证据，不能只由指数涨跌决定。
  2. 要明确当前档位、形成原因和切换条件三个层次。
  3. 需把广度、情绪、主线和宏观背景放在同一框架下，提升一致性。
  4. 若状态尚不清晰，应明确写出“切换中”或“震荡中”，不能强行归类。
  5. 输出要能直接服务总仓位和风格选择，而不是停留在宏观概括。
  1. Market status judgment must be based on multi-dimensional evidence, not solely determined by index fluctuations.
  2. Three levels must be clarified: current category, formation reasons and switching conditions.
  3. Breadth, sentiment, main theme and macro background should be placed in the same framework to improve consistency.
  4. If the status is unclear, clearly state "switching" or "oscillating", do not force classification.
  5. The output should directly serve total position and style selection, rather than staying at macro generalization.